Consensus statement to recommend specific actions to #endCOVID19 as a global threat to public health

Multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, NGO, government, & other experts from 112 countries/territories.

Article in @nature
In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses,.recommendations call for. whole-of-society.approaches, while maintaining proven prevention measures .that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. 2/
"As of Sept 2022, more than 620 million cases of COVID-19 and over 6.5 million deaths have been reported, although mortality estimates range as high as 20 million..Highly transmissible variants continue to spread globally, while surveillance.remains largely inadequate 3/
"Long COVID has emerged as a serious chronic condition that represents a considerable burden of disease and still lacks adequate understanding and appropriate preventive or curative solutions. 4/
"To develop a global consensus regarding these ongoing problems, we carried out a Delphi study with a multidisciplinary, geographically diverse panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization (NGO), government and other experts.from 112 countries and territories 5/
"The resulting consensus statements and recommendations can serve as a strong basis for decision-making to end COVID-19 as a public health threat, and permit a more durable resumption of social, cultural, religious, political, healthcare, economic and educational activities,.. 6/
".with less burden on vulnerable populations." 7/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Nov 4
TV report is truth: "It impairs the immune system, which means that after COVID is done and gone, you are more susceptible to other kinds of infections, and that may well be a bigger problem in children."

h/t @greg_travis…
"So we're seeing a lot of respiratory illness, far more than could be accounted for in any other way.”

"It jolts us back into reality and the reminder that we're still in a pandemic”

"I think they've abandoned us under this guise of back to normalcy. We know it's not normal. We're dealing with illness upon illness but no help is there.”

Read 4 tweets
Oct 30
New paper: Modeling Complex Systems: A Case Study of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology

"Our purpose is to show how assumptions can constrain model outcomes to a narrow portion of the wide landscape of potential epidemic behaviors.

"The key to good modeling is understanding which details matter and which do not. Paradoxically,... the impossibility of getting all the details right may discourage a careful analysis of which assumptions are appropriate in which contexts.
"In an attempt to obtain better predictions, it may be tempting to include more details and fine-tune the model assumptions. However, arbitrarily focusing on some assumptions and details while losing sight of others is counterproductive.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 30
Advisory for the state of Karnatka, India, that borders on Maharashtra, due to first BQ.1 detected in Maharashtra

Proactive: testing and self-isolation, seeking medical care, masking, outdoor festivals, vaccination,..

1. Get tested immediately if you show symptoms
Residents are instructed to get tested immediately at their nearest hospital or healthcare centre if they show symptoms of fever, cough, cold, sore throat and breathing difficulties.

2. Self-isolate
Those who are symptomatic should isolate themselves until negative results are received.

Read 7 tweets
Oct 25
This article in August, 2020 reporting irreversible structural damage to the heart was all that was needed to predict heart attacks and sudden deaths at any time after Covid.

This article in July, 2020, reported a high fraction of cardiac damage in covid survivors. There was a lot of debate about exactly what percentage of people suffered. Irrelevant to a predicted consequence of many heart attacks and sudden deaths.

This article in Jan 2021 showed changes in the blood vessels of healthy young adults, an indication of cardiovascular disease risk -- keywords for heart attacks and other cardiac problems.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 16
My nightmare scenario since 2014—during Ebola outbreak in West Africa when travel was not restricted—is someone throwing up in the subway system of a major metropolitan area

CDC informed us to prepare for Ebola in the US. Honestly not sure what that means
Already two quarantined under suspicion of Ebola in Chicago alone. Presumably these were symptomatic upon arrival in the US. The ones who left the airport without symptoms may develop them later.

Many of those who are medically trained (even in public health) seem to think their responsibility starts when someone walks into a doctor's office or into an emergency department.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 16
Note: This is a constructive reversal of statements that Uganda would not "lockdown" to stop Ebola. But the main action needed is early identification by daily monitoring. 1/

Uganda introduces lockdown measures to halt spread of Ebola: president…
Here is a description of the community based door-to-door symptom checking to identify potential cases and isolate them. This is what stopped Ebola in Liberia.
The results were dramatic. The epidemic that was exponentially growing, fell exponentially--To the confusion of many international observers who didn't recognize that this was the exit strategy that was needed.

Read 4 tweets

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