I have been meaning to do a thread on the one small attribute of the costs and benefits associated with the U.S. provision of money and material to the Ukraine in its defense against Russia. #Ukraine #ElectronicWarfare #intelligence #CostofWar 1/23
War and the preparations for war are extremely expensive. The development of weapon systems is extremely costly and often involves many steps that are not often considered. Let's start by stating that the U.S. Defense Budget is ~$734.34B (2019) 2/23
The U.S. has pledged to Ukraine to date ~$51.08B according ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga… of which ~$26.99B is for military related spending. 3/23
U.S. Mil Aid to Ukraine has equated to approximately 3.7% of U.S. Defense Spending. But These numbers hide the return on investment. Yes, you read that right the U.S. is getting a lot back from Ukraine on a regular basis for its investment. 4/23
I will only focus on Electronic Warfare Systems. I am focused on this area because that is what I have spent the most time on since 2014. 5/23 apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/…
On March 22, 2022 Ukraine captured a 1RL257 Krasukha-4. As noted in the image below this is a highly advanced EW system. This system was likely transferred to U.S. Intelligence Officials. 6/23 Image
On September 5, 2022 Ukraine captured a Silok-01 EW system to counter UAVs defence-blog.com/ukrainian-sold… 7/23 Image
On September 9, 2022 Ukraine captured a RP-377UVM1L Electronic warfare system to jam and suppress radio channels. 8/23 euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/07/ukr… Image
On September 9 @oryxspioenkop reported that Ukrainians found an SAP-518SM 'Regata' jamming pod designed to jam advanced air defenses, specifically NATO SAM and Air-to-Air Threats 9/23 Image
Prior to September 14 (Sept 8th?) Ukraine also captured a R-149AKSh-1 Signals Command Vehicle (C2 System) 10/23 defenceview.in/ukraine-captur… Image
On September 15, 2022 Ukraine captured an R-381T2M System. 11/23 odin.tradoc.army.mil/mediawiki/inde… Image
These systems are extremely valuable battlefield tools. Some undermine the C2 capabilities of Ukrainians, other to control or undermine UAVs, some to protect Air and or ground assets. Combined they provide increasing knowledge of Russia's capacity to wage war. 12/23
The U.S. spent about $3.17B on EW systems in 2021 and the global market for EW systems was about $25.74B in 2022. 13/23 globenewswire.com/news-release/2…
The development of EW systems is extremely expensive and can have multi-year programs running into the billions of dollars. These programs have typically been informed by intelligence collection from across the Intelligence community. 14/23
Development of new EW systems is part science and part guesswork on what the opposing side's capabilities are. The collection of actual EW systems from the battlefield is a major intelligence win. 15/23
The capture of these systems does several things. 1. Saves money in the development phases of EW systems. Reverse engineering and having opposing systems on hand saves time and money. 16/23
2. It allows the U.S. and allies to counter and surpass/bypass in capability enemy systems. Particularly systems that might control UAVs or provide cover for aircraft. 17/23
3. It allows the U.S. and allies to build better communications systems to counter adversary efforts to listen in. 18/23
4. It provides potential vectors for allied intelligence services to collect and understand the TTPs of the adversary. 19/23
Combined the capture of these systems likely saves the U.S. Tax payer billions of dollars. It also saves the lives of American and allied service members who one day might have to face such devices in a war. 20/23
The War in Ukraine is horrific. It has cost Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars, and hundreds of thousands of lives. But the war is exposing and shedding light on the TTPs of Russia. It is exposing their best technologies - EW Systems, Artillery, Counter Battery Radar, 21/23
Air Defense, Naval Defense, Cyber, C2, and so many more to intelligence collection. While we give Ukraine billions of $ of equipment, we are in return gaining billions of $ worth of intelligence. Because Russia is such a prolific supplier of weapons around the world 22/23
This knowledge extends outward to many other countries. To look on our provisioning of Ukraine as unidirectional is inaccurate. We give weapons, We get allies, and intelligence. #StandFirm #StandWithUkraine 23/23
I have assuredly missed some systems. So please do add them if you know of them.

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More from @AfterWestphalia

Oct 19
There is an immense moral and ethical cowardice in academia and in think tanks. The level of pontification on nuclear war without asking the question what happens next is astounding. What happens when Ukraine is forced into a peace deal that cedes its territories? Some thoughts..
The threat of war is scary. Let's get that off the table. Could it happen, yes. Is there a potential for nuclear conflict, yes. But the threat of nuclear war does not go away with a forced peace deal. In fact the threat of nuclear war grows greater with a forced peace.
1. Russia would interpret a peace deal on the current borders as a victory. I.E. it forced NATO to back down. This would undermine the deterrent effect of NATO and create a very scary precedent both in Ukraine and beyond.
Read 14 tweets
Dec 7, 2021
Thread 1/ I have generally kept quiet on the Ukraine situation. I lived just north of the ATO for two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer, I worked for both IRI, and NDI on democracy projects in Ukraine following my time as a PCV. I travel to Ukraine almost yearly to visit family.
2/ I led a research mission for the Army Cyber Institute to Ukraine in 2017 and wrote a report and participated in an academic mission with the Modern War Institute in 2018. I speak and read reasonably well in both Ukrainian and Russian.

cyberdefensereview.army.mil/Portals/6/Docu…
3/ Although Russian forces have many technical advantages be they cyber or EW, hardware (tanks, aircraft, etc.) Ukraine has something that is hard to measure. In 2013-14 when conflict broke out, the Ukrainian military had a single BCT ready.
Read 17 tweets

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