Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 4, 2022 34 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Here is an update for November 3rd. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna areas.
North of Svatove, east of Kupyansk, Ukraine is attacking Orlyanske (1), Kyslivka (2), and Kuzemivka (3). There is heavy fighting, particularly near Kuzemivka.
Ukraine has to clear each forest strip one at a time while under heavy artillery fire. Both sides use large artillery barrages to halt each other's advance.
Near Kreminna, Russia attacked Makiivka (4) and Nevske (5). Ukraine counterattacked Makiivka (6) and Ploshchanka (7) and has reportedly reached the highway (8).
I am still determining exactly where they reached the highway or from which direction they attacked Ploshchanka. These marks are my best guess.
Perhaps they came from the north rather than the south. It is also possible they didn’t reach the highway near Ploshchanka but instead closer to Kreminna.
Ukraine is also attacking Chervopopivka and Pishchane (9) and advancing east from Torske (10).
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka (11) from the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske (12), and Spirne from the southeast (13). The fighting in Bilohorivka is particularly heavy.
Russia controls the dominant hills over Verkhnokamyanske, which, combined with the perfectly straight road through the middle of town, makes the settlement very dangerous.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia is attacking Yakovlivka, Soledar (14), Bakhmutske, Bakhmut (15,16), and Opytne (17).

The fighting in Soledar is not going well for Russia.
In Bakhmut, Russia again attacks from the east after briefly focusing on the southeast.

I heard the following description of a failed attack on Opytne: “Wagner almost made it to the outskirts.” Fortunately, the attacker had to retreat to their original positions.
South of Bakhmut, Russia assaulted Mayorsk without success (18).
Near Donetsk, Russia is attacking Vodyane (19), Pervomaiske (20), Nevelske (21), Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Ukrainian counterattacks are stalling Russia’s advances into Vodyane and Pervomaiske.
Russia desperately wants to capture Nevelske so they can move south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north. Still, they had not progressed since they captured a small defensive position a few days ago.
The Vuhledar area has most of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine.
Russia is attacking the Novomykolaivka area and trying to push toward the O0532 highway that connects Vuhledar and Marinka. Kostyantynivka is the primary objective of this attack, as this town controls the highway.
Of secondary importance is the small town of Vodyane, where Ukraine keeps a lot of its heavy equipment for this area. In addition, it overlooks a vital intersection on the highway that allows Russia to move its equipment and supplies west toward Vuhledar.
Russia previously attacked this Vuhledar and Vodyane area, and each time they made it just about to that intersection near Vodyane before getting destroyed by artillery and retreating.
Near Vuhledar itself, Ukraine counterattacked toward Mykilske (22), while Russia attacked Vuhledar and Pavlivka (23).

The Ukrainian achieved little, although the only available sources are Russian so take it with a grain of salt.
The fighting in Pavlivka is intense street fighting, and the control of roads and intersections can change multiple times per day. As a result, there are high casualty rates, especially among attackers.
Russia is also assaulting Prechystivka (24). However, to my knowledge, they have not had any success.
In the Velyka Novosilka area, Ukraine attacked Rivnopil without notable success (25).
I am aware of three Ukrainian missile strikes in the general Zaporizhzhia oblast area.
First, they hit the Refma factory in Melitopol, which Russia used as a military headquarters, likely with significant casualties.
Second, Ukraine hammered Tokmak with unknown results.
Third, near Chernihivka, Ukraine destroyed an S-300 system. I don’t know the full extent of this attack, whether they hit one launcher, multiple command vehicles, or radars.
Ukraine destroyed an ammo warehouse near Enerhodar. I am unsure where exactly, other than it was near the city.
There were several explosions near the rail bridge near Svitlodolynske. This bridge was previously damaged. I don’t know what happened due to these explosions or if the blasts even impacted the bridge.
Ukraine launched four missile strikes near Kherson, striking Nova Kakhovka, Vesele, Olhivka, and Tyahynka. The strike on Vesele reportedly struck a Russian headquarters located in a school.
Today, explosives destroyed several vessels in the shipping area of Kherson. Many seem to believe Russia set off the explosives, but I do not know why they would. Perhaps Ukraine did it? I don’t know.
Speaking of Kherson, there are weird stories about the Russian military abandoning checkpoints and removing Russian flags from administrative buildings. In addition, there is talk about Russia abandoning the city.
I doubt they will leave the city at this point, but I guess we will see what happens over the next few days.

Finally, Russia reported Ukrainian attacks in the northern part of the Kherson area.
Two bits of info from Luhansk oblast. In Yevsuh (house icon) Russian soldiers are moving into homes abandoned by Ukrainian civilians, and there is a lot of Russian equipment driving through the town. In Pisky (cop icon) Russians are "filtering" the local population.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Dec 11
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 1
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
Every day we advance. That means we’re winning.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 21
This is what Russia does. A country that only exports oil, gas, and war. This is the city of Marinka. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.
Read 6 tweets

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