Here is an overview of the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna areas.
North of Svatove, east of Kupyansk, Ukraine is attacking Orlyanske (1), Kyslivka (2), and Kuzemivka (3). There is heavy fighting, particularly near Kuzemivka.
Ukraine has to clear each forest strip one at a time while under heavy artillery fire. Both sides use large artillery barrages to halt each other's advance.
Near Kreminna, Russia attacked Makiivka (4) and Nevske (5). Ukraine counterattacked Makiivka (6) and Ploshchanka (7) and has reportedly reached the highway (8).
I am still determining exactly where they reached the highway or from which direction they attacked Ploshchanka. These marks are my best guess.
Perhaps they came from the north rather than the south. It is also possible they didn’t reach the highway near Ploshchanka but instead closer to Kreminna.
Ukraine is also attacking Chervopopivka and Pishchane (9) and advancing east from Torske (10).
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka (11) from the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske (12), and Spirne from the southeast (13). The fighting in Bilohorivka is particularly heavy.
Russia controls the dominant hills over Verkhnokamyanske, which, combined with the perfectly straight road through the middle of town, makes the settlement very dangerous.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia is attacking Yakovlivka, Soledar (14), Bakhmutske, Bakhmut (15,16), and Opytne (17).
The fighting in Soledar is not going well for Russia.
In Bakhmut, Russia again attacks from the east after briefly focusing on the southeast.
I heard the following description of a failed attack on Opytne: “Wagner almost made it to the outskirts.” Fortunately, the attacker had to retreat to their original positions.
South of Bakhmut, Russia assaulted Mayorsk without success (18).
Near Donetsk, Russia is attacking Vodyane (19), Pervomaiske (20), Nevelske (21), Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.
Ukrainian counterattacks are stalling Russia’s advances into Vodyane and Pervomaiske.
Russia desperately wants to capture Nevelske so they can move south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north. Still, they had not progressed since they captured a small defensive position a few days ago.
The Vuhledar area has most of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine.
Russia is attacking the Novomykolaivka area and trying to push toward the O0532 highway that connects Vuhledar and Marinka. Kostyantynivka is the primary objective of this attack, as this town controls the highway.
Of secondary importance is the small town of Vodyane, where Ukraine keeps a lot of its heavy equipment for this area. In addition, it overlooks a vital intersection on the highway that allows Russia to move its equipment and supplies west toward Vuhledar.
Russia previously attacked this Vuhledar and Vodyane area, and each time they made it just about to that intersection near Vodyane before getting destroyed by artillery and retreating.
Near Vuhledar itself, Ukraine counterattacked toward Mykilske (22), while Russia attacked Vuhledar and Pavlivka (23).
The Ukrainian achieved little, although the only available sources are Russian so take it with a grain of salt.
The fighting in Pavlivka is intense street fighting, and the control of roads and intersections can change multiple times per day. As a result, there are high casualty rates, especially among attackers.
Russia is also assaulting Prechystivka (24). However, to my knowledge, they have not had any success.
In the Velyka Novosilka area, Ukraine attacked Rivnopil without notable success (25).
I am aware of three Ukrainian missile strikes in the general Zaporizhzhia oblast area.
First, they hit the Refma factory in Melitopol, which Russia used as a military headquarters, likely with significant casualties.
Second, Ukraine hammered Tokmak with unknown results.
Third, near Chernihivka, Ukraine destroyed an S-300 system. I don’t know the full extent of this attack, whether they hit one launcher, multiple command vehicles, or radars.
Ukraine destroyed an ammo warehouse near Enerhodar. I am unsure where exactly, other than it was near the city.
There were several explosions near the rail bridge near Svitlodolynske. This bridge was previously damaged. I don’t know what happened due to these explosions or if the blasts even impacted the bridge.
Ukraine launched four missile strikes near Kherson, striking Nova Kakhovka, Vesele, Olhivka, and Tyahynka. The strike on Vesele reportedly struck a Russian headquarters located in a school.
Today, explosives destroyed several vessels in the shipping area of Kherson. Many seem to believe Russia set off the explosives, but I do not know why they would. Perhaps Ukraine did it? I don’t know.
Speaking of Kherson, there are weird stories about the Russian military abandoning checkpoints and removing Russian flags from administrative buildings. In addition, there is talk about Russia abandoning the city.
I doubt they will leave the city at this point, but I guess we will see what happens over the next few days.
Finally, Russia reported Ukrainian attacks in the northern part of the Kherson area.
Two bits of info from Luhansk oblast. In Yevsuh (house icon) Russian soldiers are moving into homes abandoned by Ukrainian civilians, and there is a lot of Russian equipment driving through the town. In Pisky (cop icon) Russians are "filtering" the local population.
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Here is translated text from Al Ta about the situation in Ukraine. He is a Russian propagandist, a soviet anti-Putinist who views reviving the full Soviet Union (including Poland) as the primary number one goal of this war. He's also pretty honest about the situation. Its long. (racial slurs and whatnot are removed btw)
Preservation of one’s own forces and resources (including manpower).
On paper, everything looks neat and classical: we strike the enemy at its foundations and core, while we ourselves conserve strength and wait for the right moment for a decisive blow. But in reality, everything is both simpler and more complicated at the same time.
If you think through the basic principles of a classical war of attrition, then at the initial stage, when the enemy’s potential is being destroyed, when strikes are delivered against its economy, communications, and supply routes for raw materials and weapons, the side that holds the initiative should remain on the defensive, abandoning unimportant territories and максимально protecting its soldiers. This attrition is carried out through the remote destruction of the enemy’s potential.
Strictly speaking, the correct strategy in such a war should include:
1. Readiness for total and continuous mobilization.
We remember that this kind of war is one of mobilizing all the strength of the people. Total mobilization is necessary to achieve a manpower advantage, which should allow final military actions to be carried out quickly once the enemy’s ability to resist is completely broken. In addition, prolonged combat, even in a well-organized defense, still leads to losses, which are unavoidable. Therefore, there is a constant need to replenish the front with personnel.
2. Readiness for total destruction and the deaths of the enemy’s civilian population (and your own, if the enemy is not weaker than you).
It is extremely difficult, more likely impossible, to “delicately” destroy a country’s economic foundation. Therefore, a country that begins such a war must be prepared to act decisively and harshly. This is the price of survival.
3. Defense as the foundation of the first phase of such a war.
Preserving soldiers’ lives is the key to a future victorious offensive. It is physically impossible to conserve personnel while conducting offensive operations. Many are familiar with the standard ratios required for an attacking force to outnumber a defending one. Even taking into account more advanced and destructive weapons, the need for such a ratio remains, it will never be 1:1. In essence, the main function of troops (infantry supported by tanks, artillery, and aviation) in such a war is to occupy territories where the enemy can no longer resist. Frontal or stubborn assaults are not characteristic of a war of attrition.
4. Seizing territory in the initial and main stages of such a war is not the primary objective.
Territory should be taken either after the course of the war has been turned and the enemy’s ability to resist has been broken, or through the imposition of postwar conditions.
5. Emphasis on firepower.
The enemy should be subjected to an overwhelming barrage of destructive force using every possible means. Everything available should be directed at the target. Naturally, this places emphasis on highly destructive weapons: artillery and aviation. The nature of the current war has also added UAVs (unmanned systems). We already see strike systems in the air and at sea, and soon ground systems will be added.
The goal is to inflict unacceptable losses on the enemy before you yourself suffer unacceptable losses. If you like, it resembles a boxing match: both sides exchange blows, but in the end the stronger one wins. At the same time, for every artillery shot fired at you, ten should be fired in return; for every drone launched, ten drones should respond. Only this way.
Yet, for example, by the results of March 2026, “so-called Ukraine” surpassed us in the number of drones launched at our territory.
Each of you can compare these principles with what is actually happening at the front. After all, “we haven’t even started yet,” if some leaders are to be believed.
I want to start by saying I don’t have access to official documents or meetings, so I’m piecing together their motivations based on what I observe and logical reasoning. Keep that in mind as you read on.
This year, Russia's goals are threefold. First, to capture the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Second, to capture Kostyantynivka. Third, to capture Slovyansk.
Each of these goals has necessary steps. To capture the bank in Zaporizhzhia, you must first capture Orikhiv. To capture Slovyansk, you must first capture Lyman. You could argue that to capture Kostyantynivka, you must first capture Chasiv Yar.
These goals are very ambitious and, honestly, impossible to fully achieve. So let’s think of them as aspirations and focus instead on how close Russia might get to reaching them.
Ukraine launched several counterattacks in the Verbove and Ternove areas of Zaporizhzhia. They were quite successful, pushing Russia out of several settlements and possibly capturing some. This also threatened Russia’s main supply route to the west. Because of this, Russia has to do two things: divert resources from their main attack to stabilize the area and try to recapture this ground to keep pushing west toward Orikhiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine gains time to strengthen defenses, plan their strategy, and prepare for more counterattacks, something Russia worries about given their timeline.
This has already delayed Russia’s offensive by months, and it will take many more weeks for them to regain their previous position.
Recently, Russia tried an armored assault on Orikhiv, which failed badly (A). They also tried to advance through Mala Tokmachka (B) before, but that failed too. A direct attack on Orikhiv is unlikely to succeed without heavy losses, so Russia wants to avoid it unless they have no choice. Still, based on past experience, they might end up having to take the town this way.
The military analysis of Iran has been the absolute worst military analysis I have ever seen in my entire life.
There have been times where I listen to some "expert" where almost every word they say in the entire interview is factually wrong. Some of these people are so wrong that I feel like you could have a big box of words and reach in and draw them randomly and it be more factual.
To prove my point, I just asked a LLM to analyze the form of a normal military interview on cable news and using strictly randomly generated words and no access to the actual news please give me a report on what's going on in Ian (unironically, this is what LLMs are good at, probably, just lying about shit):::
From an operational standpoint, the expanding American strike corridor may complicate Iran’s layered coastal defenses, which could scatter missile batteries inland.
At the tactical level, the Iranian drone screen might disrupt a forward U.S. maneuver package, which could stall momentum along the maritime axis.
From the broader battlefield geometry, the concentrated American carrier posture may pressure Iran’s southern command network, which could trigger rapid repositioning of defensive units.
Right now on the ground, the reinforced Iranian coastal belt might absorb the initial U.S. probing attacks, which could slow the opening phase of the campaign.
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.