Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 4, 2022 34 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Here is an update for November 3rd. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna areas.
North of Svatove, east of Kupyansk, Ukraine is attacking Orlyanske (1), Kyslivka (2), and Kuzemivka (3). There is heavy fighting, particularly near Kuzemivka.
Ukraine has to clear each forest strip one at a time while under heavy artillery fire. Both sides use large artillery barrages to halt each other's advance.
Near Kreminna, Russia attacked Makiivka (4) and Nevske (5). Ukraine counterattacked Makiivka (6) and Ploshchanka (7) and has reportedly reached the highway (8).
I am still determining exactly where they reached the highway or from which direction they attacked Ploshchanka. These marks are my best guess.
Perhaps they came from the north rather than the south. It is also possible they didn’t reach the highway near Ploshchanka but instead closer to Kreminna.
Ukraine is also attacking Chervopopivka and Pishchane (9) and advancing east from Torske (10).
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka (11) from the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske (12), and Spirne from the southeast (13). The fighting in Bilohorivka is particularly heavy.
Russia controls the dominant hills over Verkhnokamyanske, which, combined with the perfectly straight road through the middle of town, makes the settlement very dangerous.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia is attacking Yakovlivka, Soledar (14), Bakhmutske, Bakhmut (15,16), and Opytne (17).

The fighting in Soledar is not going well for Russia.
In Bakhmut, Russia again attacks from the east after briefly focusing on the southeast.

I heard the following description of a failed attack on Opytne: “Wagner almost made it to the outskirts.” Fortunately, the attacker had to retreat to their original positions.
South of Bakhmut, Russia assaulted Mayorsk without success (18).
Near Donetsk, Russia is attacking Vodyane (19), Pervomaiske (20), Nevelske (21), Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Ukrainian counterattacks are stalling Russia’s advances into Vodyane and Pervomaiske.
Russia desperately wants to capture Nevelske so they can move south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north. Still, they had not progressed since they captured a small defensive position a few days ago.
The Vuhledar area has most of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine.
Russia is attacking the Novomykolaivka area and trying to push toward the O0532 highway that connects Vuhledar and Marinka. Kostyantynivka is the primary objective of this attack, as this town controls the highway.
Of secondary importance is the small town of Vodyane, where Ukraine keeps a lot of its heavy equipment for this area. In addition, it overlooks a vital intersection on the highway that allows Russia to move its equipment and supplies west toward Vuhledar.
Russia previously attacked this Vuhledar and Vodyane area, and each time they made it just about to that intersection near Vodyane before getting destroyed by artillery and retreating.
Near Vuhledar itself, Ukraine counterattacked toward Mykilske (22), while Russia attacked Vuhledar and Pavlivka (23).

The Ukrainian achieved little, although the only available sources are Russian so take it with a grain of salt.
The fighting in Pavlivka is intense street fighting, and the control of roads and intersections can change multiple times per day. As a result, there are high casualty rates, especially among attackers.
Russia is also assaulting Prechystivka (24). However, to my knowledge, they have not had any success.
In the Velyka Novosilka area, Ukraine attacked Rivnopil without notable success (25).
I am aware of three Ukrainian missile strikes in the general Zaporizhzhia oblast area.
First, they hit the Refma factory in Melitopol, which Russia used as a military headquarters, likely with significant casualties.
Second, Ukraine hammered Tokmak with unknown results.
Third, near Chernihivka, Ukraine destroyed an S-300 system. I don’t know the full extent of this attack, whether they hit one launcher, multiple command vehicles, or radars.
Ukraine destroyed an ammo warehouse near Enerhodar. I am unsure where exactly, other than it was near the city.
There were several explosions near the rail bridge near Svitlodolynske. This bridge was previously damaged. I don’t know what happened due to these explosions or if the blasts even impacted the bridge.
Ukraine launched four missile strikes near Kherson, striking Nova Kakhovka, Vesele, Olhivka, and Tyahynka. The strike on Vesele reportedly struck a Russian headquarters located in a school.
Today, explosives destroyed several vessels in the shipping area of Kherson. Many seem to believe Russia set off the explosives, but I do not know why they would. Perhaps Ukraine did it? I don’t know.
Speaking of Kherson, there are weird stories about the Russian military abandoning checkpoints and removing Russian flags from administrative buildings. In addition, there is talk about Russia abandoning the city.
I doubt they will leave the city at this point, but I guess we will see what happens over the next few days.

Finally, Russia reported Ukrainian attacks in the northern part of the Kherson area.
Two bits of info from Luhansk oblast. In Yevsuh (house icon) Russian soldiers are moving into homes abandoned by Ukrainian civilians, and there is a lot of Russian equipment driving through the town. In Pisky (cop icon) Russians are "filtering" the local population.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

May 5
Russians post a video showing one of their assaults, talking it up saying how well it went.

Americans: LMAO. we're adding this to the training material for how easy it is to fuck up an assault
to sum up the assault:
a bunch of golf carts cross a field with a tank covering them from behind. russians fire smoke, which immediately cuts across the field blinding the tank. russians dismount golf carts, shells start landing. hard to tell who is shooting
a gun to the flank starts shooting at the russians. looks big, maybe 20mm or larger. this plus shelling makes russians run into the trench they are attacking. the tank immediately starts shooting the trench exactly where they entered.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 27
Every time I read someone say something like “Ukraine doesn’t have the resources to counter attack” I genuinely wonder if the person writing the thing is a delusional hack. Of course they don’t, and they never will, and that doesn’t change their ability to win the war.
Ukraine doesn’t need to push Russia back to reclaim its territory. I don’t know which delusional fantasy universe people are living in that makes them think Ukraine needs to do so, but that place isn’t the reality we live in.
Ukraine pivoting to defense isn’t them giving up on retaking land, it is acceptance of reality. And Ukraine’s refusal to accept this reality cost the lives of a lot of men and the morale of the country. That offensive mindset lead to a disaster.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 14
Officer wrote about this today, but it is blatantly obvious just by looking at what vehicles get destroyed and where and how: Russian casualties do not usually come from an assault. They come from trying to build up forces for an assault.
In other words, Ukraine destroys Russians as they drive to the front. Once at the front, the infantry disperse into various underground shelters to hide until such a time a large enough force is gathered to begin assault operations.
The assault operations don’t have nearly the casualties as you may expect. And this is what you hear from Ukrainian assaults as well, where you see Ukrainians say they captured a trench without casualties, but took heavy casualties in the subsequent artillery barrages.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
AI cannot get data for my project. It cant. AI cannot understand what the data means. AI cannot read between the lines. AI cannot do anything. It is useless. I wish people would stop suggesting it. It isn’t an option.
No lazy shortcuts. Work is done by hand. At most, the AI can check if a video is a duplicate, or a script can compile a list of sources that must then be analyzed by hand. But the AI is not, cannot, and will never be a substitute for doing work. Period.
Even if you could get AI to analyze the video, break it down, and label everything with 100% accuracy, how would you then even analyze the dataset? You would have no knowledge or expertise. You wouldn’t know what questions to ask, or what caveats exist, or why decisions are made
Read 5 tweets
Apr 11
The people who want to limit collateral damage, casualties (civilian and military), environmental damage, and destruction of infrastructure should also support using the most powerful weapons in the greatest number. Because ending the war as quickly as possible achieves all goals
The people who say they are against using weapons to destroy Russian infrastructure are, in a round about way, arguing in favor of getting more civilians killed.
There is this mind rot that occurred when uncritical people somehow weaseled their way in charge over the past few years. They wanted to limit collateral damage and civilian casualties, which is admirable and is necessary, but they wanted to do so at the expense of logic.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 7
Here are the losses I could identify today.



There is another video of like 10 more russian losses but I am not confident they aren't duplicates and I need to precisely geolocate them before I say anything more about them. losses.ukrdailyupdate.com
Image
Dear Russians, please stop. Just go home. You're getting massacred. Every single day. Just go home. Sitting here watching a platoon of infantry get hit by like 9 dpicm in a row and I think like 1 guy survived. Imagine if those 30 guys stayed home instead.
This russian guy is sitting here holding his severed leg. Imagine if he stayed home.
Read 7 tweets

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