Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 4, 2022 34 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Here is an update for November 3rd. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna areas.
North of Svatove, east of Kupyansk, Ukraine is attacking Orlyanske (1), Kyslivka (2), and Kuzemivka (3). There is heavy fighting, particularly near Kuzemivka.
Ukraine has to clear each forest strip one at a time while under heavy artillery fire. Both sides use large artillery barrages to halt each other's advance.
Near Kreminna, Russia attacked Makiivka (4) and Nevske (5). Ukraine counterattacked Makiivka (6) and Ploshchanka (7) and has reportedly reached the highway (8).
I am still determining exactly where they reached the highway or from which direction they attacked Ploshchanka. These marks are my best guess.
Perhaps they came from the north rather than the south. It is also possible they didn’t reach the highway near Ploshchanka but instead closer to Kreminna.
Ukraine is also attacking Chervopopivka and Pishchane (9) and advancing east from Torske (10).
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka (11) from the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske (12), and Spirne from the southeast (13). The fighting in Bilohorivka is particularly heavy.
Russia controls the dominant hills over Verkhnokamyanske, which, combined with the perfectly straight road through the middle of town, makes the settlement very dangerous.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia is attacking Yakovlivka, Soledar (14), Bakhmutske, Bakhmut (15,16), and Opytne (17).

The fighting in Soledar is not going well for Russia.
In Bakhmut, Russia again attacks from the east after briefly focusing on the southeast.

I heard the following description of a failed attack on Opytne: “Wagner almost made it to the outskirts.” Fortunately, the attacker had to retreat to their original positions.
South of Bakhmut, Russia assaulted Mayorsk without success (18).
Near Donetsk, Russia is attacking Vodyane (19), Pervomaiske (20), Nevelske (21), Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Ukrainian counterattacks are stalling Russia’s advances into Vodyane and Pervomaiske.
Russia desperately wants to capture Nevelske so they can move south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north. Still, they had not progressed since they captured a small defensive position a few days ago.
The Vuhledar area has most of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine.
Russia is attacking the Novomykolaivka area and trying to push toward the O0532 highway that connects Vuhledar and Marinka. Kostyantynivka is the primary objective of this attack, as this town controls the highway.
Of secondary importance is the small town of Vodyane, where Ukraine keeps a lot of its heavy equipment for this area. In addition, it overlooks a vital intersection on the highway that allows Russia to move its equipment and supplies west toward Vuhledar.
Russia previously attacked this Vuhledar and Vodyane area, and each time they made it just about to that intersection near Vodyane before getting destroyed by artillery and retreating.
Near Vuhledar itself, Ukraine counterattacked toward Mykilske (22), while Russia attacked Vuhledar and Pavlivka (23).

The Ukrainian achieved little, although the only available sources are Russian so take it with a grain of salt.
The fighting in Pavlivka is intense street fighting, and the control of roads and intersections can change multiple times per day. As a result, there are high casualty rates, especially among attackers.
Russia is also assaulting Prechystivka (24). However, to my knowledge, they have not had any success.
In the Velyka Novosilka area, Ukraine attacked Rivnopil without notable success (25).
I am aware of three Ukrainian missile strikes in the general Zaporizhzhia oblast area.
First, they hit the Refma factory in Melitopol, which Russia used as a military headquarters, likely with significant casualties.
Second, Ukraine hammered Tokmak with unknown results.
Third, near Chernihivka, Ukraine destroyed an S-300 system. I don’t know the full extent of this attack, whether they hit one launcher, multiple command vehicles, or radars.
Ukraine destroyed an ammo warehouse near Enerhodar. I am unsure where exactly, other than it was near the city.
There were several explosions near the rail bridge near Svitlodolynske. This bridge was previously damaged. I don’t know what happened due to these explosions or if the blasts even impacted the bridge.
Ukraine launched four missile strikes near Kherson, striking Nova Kakhovka, Vesele, Olhivka, and Tyahynka. The strike on Vesele reportedly struck a Russian headquarters located in a school.
Today, explosives destroyed several vessels in the shipping area of Kherson. Many seem to believe Russia set off the explosives, but I do not know why they would. Perhaps Ukraine did it? I don’t know.
Speaking of Kherson, there are weird stories about the Russian military abandoning checkpoints and removing Russian flags from administrative buildings. In addition, there is talk about Russia abandoning the city.
I doubt they will leave the city at this point, but I guess we will see what happens over the next few days.

Finally, Russia reported Ukrainian attacks in the northern part of the Kherson area.
Two bits of info from Luhansk oblast. In Yevsuh (house icon) Russian soldiers are moving into homes abandoned by Ukrainian civilians, and there is a lot of Russian equipment driving through the town. In Pisky (cop icon) Russians are "filtering" the local population.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 15
I started the weekend with like 40 days of backlog. Ugh. I did 19 days. Meh. Here are the days. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets
Mar 6
While Trump’s team spreads defeatism and tries to blackmail Ukraine into surrender, Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield remain unimpressed by the proclamations coming out of Washington Oblast.

Their actions speak louder than words.
In recent days, Ukraine has:

Recaptured Kotlyne
Liberated Pischane
Pushed into Shevchenko

These gains prove two critical points.
🔹 First: Ukraine still has the ability to seize the initiative.

Despite immense challenges, its military can concentrate forces, execute counterattacks, and maintain operational momentum—suggesting it retains significant reserves.

If the West falters, Ukraine can continue fighting until Russia collapses. Slowly trading land against Russian offensive potentials.

If the West finds its backbone, Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia and end the war on just terms.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 13
Europe could have invested 1-2 hundred billion dollars over the past 3 years, but instead they will have to invest 3-5 trillion over the next 20. I’ve talked about this many times in the past. The politicians made very unwise decisions because they were afraid.
Should have gone 100% all in on making Ukraine win from day 1. Full on everything. It would have fixed every problem. Countries still aren’t even doing this. Every single day you delay will cost you 100 or 1000 times more over the next few years.
You thought it cost too much to squeeze 20-30 billion dollars into your budget for 5 years. Imagine having to fit in 500 billion.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
There is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, at all, for any reason, in the year 2025. Any negotiations should start in mid 2026, when the Russian economy has imploded, their deficits are blasting off to the moon, and Russia can no longer fight.
Every country should be looking at the situation like this: we only have to get ukraine through the next 12-18 months. We need to throw in the money, weapons, and ammo available now to make this happen. This is not a forever war. There is 1 year left. We are 75% done.
Russia will have absolutely no ability to wage war in the year 2027. Zero ability. Bringing the war into 2027 should be the threat to Russia. If we supply Ukraine through to that time period, Russia risks absolute implosion.
Read 11 tweets

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