Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 4, 2022 34 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Here is an update for November 3rd. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna areas.
North of Svatove, east of Kupyansk, Ukraine is attacking Orlyanske (1), Kyslivka (2), and Kuzemivka (3). There is heavy fighting, particularly near Kuzemivka.
Ukraine has to clear each forest strip one at a time while under heavy artillery fire. Both sides use large artillery barrages to halt each other's advance.
Near Kreminna, Russia attacked Makiivka (4) and Nevske (5). Ukraine counterattacked Makiivka (6) and Ploshchanka (7) and has reportedly reached the highway (8).
I am still determining exactly where they reached the highway or from which direction they attacked Ploshchanka. These marks are my best guess.
Perhaps they came from the north rather than the south. It is also possible they didn’t reach the highway near Ploshchanka but instead closer to Kreminna.
Ukraine is also attacking Chervopopivka and Pishchane (9) and advancing east from Torske (10).
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka (11) from the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske (12), and Spirne from the southeast (13). The fighting in Bilohorivka is particularly heavy.
Russia controls the dominant hills over Verkhnokamyanske, which, combined with the perfectly straight road through the middle of town, makes the settlement very dangerous.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia is attacking Yakovlivka, Soledar (14), Bakhmutske, Bakhmut (15,16), and Opytne (17).

The fighting in Soledar is not going well for Russia.
In Bakhmut, Russia again attacks from the east after briefly focusing on the southeast.

I heard the following description of a failed attack on Opytne: “Wagner almost made it to the outskirts.” Fortunately, the attacker had to retreat to their original positions.
South of Bakhmut, Russia assaulted Mayorsk without success (18).
Near Donetsk, Russia is attacking Vodyane (19), Pervomaiske (20), Nevelske (21), Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Ukrainian counterattacks are stalling Russia’s advances into Vodyane and Pervomaiske.
Russia desperately wants to capture Nevelske so they can move south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north. Still, they had not progressed since they captured a small defensive position a few days ago.
The Vuhledar area has most of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine.
Russia is attacking the Novomykolaivka area and trying to push toward the O0532 highway that connects Vuhledar and Marinka. Kostyantynivka is the primary objective of this attack, as this town controls the highway.
Of secondary importance is the small town of Vodyane, where Ukraine keeps a lot of its heavy equipment for this area. In addition, it overlooks a vital intersection on the highway that allows Russia to move its equipment and supplies west toward Vuhledar.
Russia previously attacked this Vuhledar and Vodyane area, and each time they made it just about to that intersection near Vodyane before getting destroyed by artillery and retreating.
Near Vuhledar itself, Ukraine counterattacked toward Mykilske (22), while Russia attacked Vuhledar and Pavlivka (23).

The Ukrainian achieved little, although the only available sources are Russian so take it with a grain of salt.
The fighting in Pavlivka is intense street fighting, and the control of roads and intersections can change multiple times per day. As a result, there are high casualty rates, especially among attackers.
Russia is also assaulting Prechystivka (24). However, to my knowledge, they have not had any success.
In the Velyka Novosilka area, Ukraine attacked Rivnopil without notable success (25).
I am aware of three Ukrainian missile strikes in the general Zaporizhzhia oblast area.
First, they hit the Refma factory in Melitopol, which Russia used as a military headquarters, likely with significant casualties.
Second, Ukraine hammered Tokmak with unknown results.
Third, near Chernihivka, Ukraine destroyed an S-300 system. I don’t know the full extent of this attack, whether they hit one launcher, multiple command vehicles, or radars.
Ukraine destroyed an ammo warehouse near Enerhodar. I am unsure where exactly, other than it was near the city.
There were several explosions near the rail bridge near Svitlodolynske. This bridge was previously damaged. I don’t know what happened due to these explosions or if the blasts even impacted the bridge.
Ukraine launched four missile strikes near Kherson, striking Nova Kakhovka, Vesele, Olhivka, and Tyahynka. The strike on Vesele reportedly struck a Russian headquarters located in a school.
Today, explosives destroyed several vessels in the shipping area of Kherson. Many seem to believe Russia set off the explosives, but I do not know why they would. Perhaps Ukraine did it? I don’t know.
Speaking of Kherson, there are weird stories about the Russian military abandoning checkpoints and removing Russian flags from administrative buildings. In addition, there is talk about Russia abandoning the city.
I doubt they will leave the city at this point, but I guess we will see what happens over the next few days.

Finally, Russia reported Ukrainian attacks in the northern part of the Kherson area.
Two bits of info from Luhansk oblast. In Yevsuh (house icon) Russian soldiers are moving into homes abandoned by Ukrainian civilians, and there is a lot of Russian equipment driving through the town. In Pisky (cop icon) Russians are "filtering" the local population.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jul 15
It is insane to me that prop planes were never supplied to Ukraine. People have been so focused on the wrong assets. It has been clear since day 1 that prop planes would be one of the most significant military upgrades Ukraine could get, and if they were provided on Day 1 this war could be very different today. They could have been hunting and destroying recon drones this entire time, denying Russia the ability to plan their missile raids and correct their artillery fire and airstrikes. This would have crippled the Russian military. Instead, we put all of our money into defense, which could not be delivered in the time frames or in the quantities to actually defend ukraine. This failure to provide prop planes is completely infuriating to me.
And, even worse, the people who failed to understand how important the prop planes were back then are still in charge of making decisions today. That alone should worry everyone.
These people just don't understand how this war was going to be fought, is currently fought, or how it will be fought in the future. And yet, somehow, they make decisions on which gear should be invested in.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 12
It is honestly interesting seeing multiple prominent Russian milbloggers talking about the hopelessness of a Russian victory. I think they are starting to realize they goofed.
Sentiments along the lines of “no matter how many resources we push in, the front line barely moves”. “ukrainian and european production is growing faster than ours”. “next year ukraine will have more resources than us”
Tack on the comments about how 152mm artillery is a dead end technology due to lack of investment and development from the 80s onwards. Even their latest models, which Russia cannot even produce due to lack of industrial power, is dramatically inferior to even cheap 155mm pieces
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
Compare what Ukraine does to help and rebuild after liberating from Russian occupation to what Russia does once they enter and you can see which country is on the right side of history.

“We opened a Resilience Center in Balakliya.

This step is part of the All-Ukrainian Mental Health Program "Are You Okay?", an initiative of Olena Zelenska.

The project was implemented jointly with the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine and the Coordination Center for Mental Health of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, with the support of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF).

Resilience Centers provide psychosocial support, including group and individual counseling, parenting skills training, social support, crisis intervention, conflict resolution, and support for veterans.

Additionally, the centers offer day care services for children with disabilities, tailored to the needs of each community.

It is also a space for community members to socialize and organize joint events, initiatives and training sessions.

The centers were launched with the financial support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).”
Ukraine enters and begins to clear mines, restore electric power and water, repair heating systems, restore hospitals, rebuild schools.

Russia builds filtration camps, steals local land and businesses from the owners, turns schools into barracks, does book burnings, and begins logging the forests and stealing natural resources.
Read 4 tweets
May 31
This is the 243 day of the Russian offensive, in this time they have almost 2900 armored vehicles + artillery destroyed plus 1100 more abandoned. Combined is just under 4000. This is actually an undercount as well, because we don't have enough money to buy all the high res sat images.
In the same time period, Ukraine has lost fewer than 900.
We are absolutely double counting vehicles. Its not intentional, its just inevitable. No matter how much we work to avoid it, it happens. But the vehicles we miss almost certainly dwarf the number of double counts. Like, we bought a high res image of an area where we learned we counted the same vehicle 4 times, but there were also like 40+ vehicles nobody anywhere knew were lost. And even still several dozen of those have never been spotted on any photo or video we can find.
Read 4 tweets
May 26
I have an idea. Every time someone uses the total number of Russian mortar + 122 + 152 ammo production to 155mm production, they have to donate 1/4 of their salary to the Czech ammo purchase. Does that seem fair?
Compare 152 to 155, 122 to 105 and mortars to mortars or stfu and don't say anything at all.
Also, comparing the price of a mortar shell to a 155mm shell: are you stupid?
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Remember that time Romanov posted a video where he shot a howitzer, and then cut to a shell hitting a house? And how the shell that hit that house killed a civilian? Now, I cannot tell you Romanov fired that exact shell, but he wanted you to think he did.

Anywho, unrelatedly, I am sure:
when you are a "journalist" Image
Doing journalism Image
Read 5 tweets

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