Here is an update for November 3rd. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna areas.
North of Svatove, east of Kupyansk, Ukraine is attacking Orlyanske (1), Kyslivka (2), and Kuzemivka (3). There is heavy fighting, particularly near Kuzemivka.
Ukraine has to clear each forest strip one at a time while under heavy artillery fire. Both sides use large artillery barrages to halt each other's advance.
Near Kreminna, Russia attacked Makiivka (4) and Nevske (5). Ukraine counterattacked Makiivka (6) and Ploshchanka (7) and has reportedly reached the highway (8).
I am still determining exactly where they reached the highway or from which direction they attacked Ploshchanka. These marks are my best guess.
Perhaps they came from the north rather than the south. It is also possible they didn’t reach the highway near Ploshchanka but instead closer to Kreminna.
Ukraine is also attacking Chervopopivka and Pishchane (9) and advancing east from Torske (10).
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka (11) from the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske (12), and Spirne from the southeast (13). The fighting in Bilohorivka is particularly heavy.
Russia controls the dominant hills over Verkhnokamyanske, which, combined with the perfectly straight road through the middle of town, makes the settlement very dangerous.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia is attacking Yakovlivka, Soledar (14), Bakhmutske, Bakhmut (15,16), and Opytne (17).

The fighting in Soledar is not going well for Russia.
In Bakhmut, Russia again attacks from the east after briefly focusing on the southeast.

I heard the following description of a failed attack on Opytne: “Wagner almost made it to the outskirts.” Fortunately, the attacker had to retreat to their original positions.
South of Bakhmut, Russia assaulted Mayorsk without success (18).
Near Donetsk, Russia is attacking Vodyane (19), Pervomaiske (20), Nevelske (21), Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Ukrainian counterattacks are stalling Russia’s advances into Vodyane and Pervomaiske.
Russia desperately wants to capture Nevelske so they can move south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north. Still, they had not progressed since they captured a small defensive position a few days ago.
The Vuhledar area has most of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine.
Russia is attacking the Novomykolaivka area and trying to push toward the O0532 highway that connects Vuhledar and Marinka. Kostyantynivka is the primary objective of this attack, as this town controls the highway.
Of secondary importance is the small town of Vodyane, where Ukraine keeps a lot of its heavy equipment for this area. In addition, it overlooks a vital intersection on the highway that allows Russia to move its equipment and supplies west toward Vuhledar.
Russia previously attacked this Vuhledar and Vodyane area, and each time they made it just about to that intersection near Vodyane before getting destroyed by artillery and retreating.
Near Vuhledar itself, Ukraine counterattacked toward Mykilske (22), while Russia attacked Vuhledar and Pavlivka (23).

The Ukrainian achieved little, although the only available sources are Russian so take it with a grain of salt.
The fighting in Pavlivka is intense street fighting, and the control of roads and intersections can change multiple times per day. As a result, there are high casualty rates, especially among attackers.
Russia is also assaulting Prechystivka (24). However, to my knowledge, they have not had any success.
In the Velyka Novosilka area, Ukraine attacked Rivnopil without notable success (25).
I am aware of three Ukrainian missile strikes in the general Zaporizhzhia oblast area.
First, they hit the Refma factory in Melitopol, which Russia used as a military headquarters, likely with significant casualties.
Second, Ukraine hammered Tokmak with unknown results.
Third, near Chernihivka, Ukraine destroyed an S-300 system. I don’t know the full extent of this attack, whether they hit one launcher, multiple command vehicles, or radars.
Ukraine destroyed an ammo warehouse near Enerhodar. I am unsure where exactly, other than it was near the city.
There were several explosions near the rail bridge near Svitlodolynske. This bridge was previously damaged. I don’t know what happened due to these explosions or if the blasts even impacted the bridge.
Ukraine launched four missile strikes near Kherson, striking Nova Kakhovka, Vesele, Olhivka, and Tyahynka. The strike on Vesele reportedly struck a Russian headquarters located in a school.
Today, explosives destroyed several vessels in the shipping area of Kherson. Many seem to believe Russia set off the explosives, but I do not know why they would. Perhaps Ukraine did it? I don’t know.
Speaking of Kherson, there are weird stories about the Russian military abandoning checkpoints and removing Russian flags from administrative buildings. In addition, there is talk about Russia abandoning the city.
I doubt they will leave the city at this point, but I guess we will see what happens over the next few days.

Finally, Russia reported Ukrainian attacks in the northern part of the Kherson area.
Two bits of info from Luhansk oblast. In Yevsuh (house icon) Russian soldiers are moving into homes abandoned by Ukrainian civilians, and there is a lot of Russian equipment driving through the town. In Pisky (cop icon) Russians are "filtering" the local population.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Nov 5
I think Russia’s strategy in Kherson is to fill every forest strip and town with a horde of mobilized cannon fodder, distribute anti tank weapons and call in as many air support missions as possible and beg Ukraine to move forward.
I don’t think they care how many men they lose with their strategy, whether it is thousands or tens of thousands. They view it as a net win because ukraine loses armored vehicles and those are irreplaceable. Russia will gladly trade hundreds of lives to kill a few tanks.
In my view, Ukraine’s counter here is pretty simple. Artillery and anti aircraft weapons. The two things they have the least of.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 4
Ah yes, the “cleaned up” Pavlivka. Image
In Pavlivka, the initial reports were overly pessimistic for Ukraine. They were coming from people who were having, let’s say, an emotional day. In the evening and morning the situation stabilized and more accurate reports came out.
The Russian propagandists, having no need for fact checking, especially not when the news seems “good”, decided to pretend those initial reports were literal fact. And, even many hours after better information was available, decided to post those stories as current situation.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 4
Having worked to moderate a large internet community before (over 500,000 daily users), I can tell you from a lot of experience just how stupid @elonmusk plan is.

The reality? To have effective moderation, you need large numbers of moderators. About one for every 50k users.
You should be paying around $3-4 per user, per year on moderators. If you aren’t good enough at running a business to make that profitable, then you aren’t good enough at running a business to own a social media company.
And, if you really want to know the truth, people flock to well moderated forums. People line up to give you money to be in a moderated forum. People hate the wild west. That’s just reality. Moderation should be the product. That’s how you make money in social media.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 3
Stepnohirsk, south of Zaporizhzhia city, north of the front line town of Kamyansk. This is what Russia has to offer the people of Ukraine. Daily shelling. Plastic water bottles, bomb shelters, and craters. ImageImageImageImage
ImageImageImageImage
ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Nov 2
These areas where Russia is “counter attacking” in Svatove are not areas that Ukraine controlled in the first place. It was gray areas. Don’t act like Russia is “taking ground” or whatever. It was ground nobody was in, on either side, outside of maybe some recon or something.
However, at the same time, Ukraine is actually taking Russian positions. Their advance has not stopped. It just isn’t talked about as much, and when it is talked about it is with delay or (as I do now) without detail of exact location for opsec. Pictures/videos will come.
The advance is slow for two reasons.

1: the defender has the advantage of elevation

2: clearing out forest strips is slow and dangerous. There are many places to hide, potential for traps, etc. Clearing out these areas takes time and there is no shortcut.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 2
A brief update for November 1st. #ukrdailyupdate

I am still working to confirm the status of various areas along the front line, so this will be light on details.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Russia fired over 100 shells, primarily mortars, into the Sumy oblast today into six towns. Unfortunately, I only know three towns (plus two more in Chernihiv oblast).
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk/Svatove area.
Read 22 tweets

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