Thread by @kevinbonham

#Newspoll Vic (state) 54-46 to Labor. L-NP 37 ALP 37 Green 13 others 13

https://twitter.com/DrCampbellWhite/status/1588487322303365120

That is the first public poll from anyone inside 55-45 or with Labor not leading on primaries since June 2021 #VicVotes

#Newspoll Andrews net +7 (51-44) Guy net -20 (32-52) Better Premier (skews to incumbents) Andrews leads rather modestly 51-32.

54-46 would very probably still be a Labor majority. They'd win the 2PP in about 52 classic seats and hard to see them dropping 8 to crossbench. But if it's really that "close" and it closes further ...

Historically the surprising thing isn't that we're seeing this sort of vaguely competitive (but not very) polling, it's that we haven't been seeing it sooner.

Just a note re the silly game on here of people disbelieving Newspoll because it is worse for Labor than Morgan (even though Newspoll has a much better track record): the most recent Morgan is ancient now; it was released 18 Oct but sample was taken in September.

Of course also: 1. Pro-ALP Morgan stans are cherrypickers. All ignored it when Morgan showed much lower federal leads for Labor post-election than others.

2. Anyone judging a poll by whether or not it agrees with Morgan can pretty safely just delete their account.