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Nov 4 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
#PASen - 11/4 Return Rate Comparisons

I did a few comparisons of some PA collar counties yesterday. Let's take a look at some swingy/tilt ones.

Berks: (D) 70.6% v. (R) 60.9%
Chester: (D) 65.8% v. (R) 57.7%
Erie: (D) 79.5% v. (R) 72.3%
Luzerne (D) 68.7% v. (R) 60.7%
It should be extremely alarming for R's that they're underrunning Dems by 10 pts in counties like those and up to 15 pts behind the statewide rate. They need to do reasonably well in counties like those and they'll be starting ED even more behind if this continues.
Chester in particular is eyebrow raising. Oz wants/thinks he can win it, but the R return there being stuck in the mid 50s despite their return rate being over 70 statewide is not particularly encouraging.

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More from @blockedfreq

Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 4
#PASen - 11/4 Update

~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.

Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.

A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. More collar counties have caught up today and crossed the 70% threshold.
2. Dem firewall is now 520,000+ strong.
3. Delaware County will cross 70% in the next batch to drop.
4. We have a handful of counties knocking on the 95%+ return rate door, should hit it in the next drop.
Read 4 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 4
There's been a lot of conversation on the merits of analyzing the early vote this evening. Since I'm doing a fair bit of it for PA, allow me to offer a few thoughts about it. (1/x)
Disclaimer: I will say this - you do have to be careful about doing stuff like that. It varies wildly from state to state in terms of effectiveness. A big reason why I'm doing this revolves around testing a wider hypothesis I have about a hybrid model of election analysis. (2/x)
Subsequently, many of you quite rightly wonder how and where I came out of nowhere to start doing analysis for #PASen on an in-depth level. It just so happens that this year and an election that I'm heavily invested in finally allowed me the chance to test my thesis. (3/x)
Read 19 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 3
#PASen - 11/3 Update (big one!)

~50,000 ballots were returned, bringing us across the threshold of ONE MILLION votes cast (1,017,019).

Dem return rate crossed another major threshold of 72.6% of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is 69.7%.

Takeways below.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. All PA counties are now out of the "red" zone.
2. Montgomery County followed Bucks and finally got its act together with the ballots, crossing over 70% returned there today. Good news for Fett.
3. Another batch of counties will cross 80% tomorrow.
Read 4 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Oct 31
#PASen - 10/31 Update

~62,500 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to ~855,000 cast.

Dem return rate is 63.6%
GOP return rate is 59%

Dem advantage in return rate remains stable at ~4.5%.

The map has been upgraded to the next level. Color key and analysis below. Image
Dark green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
Purple = 40-50% of ballots returned.

Once 95%+ of ballots in a county have been returned, the county color will turn blue.
Now for the fun stuff.

1. Dem firewall is now almost at 450,000+.

2. Collar counties are still struggling with their returns. They better hope their slower reporting is straightened out on Election Night or else it's going to be a long week for all of us.
Read 4 tweets

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