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Nov 4 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Today, my Senate forecast has the most likely result as 50-50. Here is what happens if one party systematically outperforms my Senate Forecast

Democrats: (On track to win AZ, GA, PA, NH)
Dem +0.8% Nevada
Dem +4.4% Ohio
Dem +4.6% North Carolina
Dem +5.8% Wisconsin
Republicans: (On track to win NV, NC, OH, WI)
Rep +1.1% Pennsylvania
Rep +1.1% Georgia
Rep +2.3% Arizona
Rep +5.4% New Hampshire
Rep +7.3% Washington
Rep +9.6% Colorado
Here's the full forecast. It's getting updated every hour with the latest races racetothewh.com/senate/

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More from @LoganR2WH

Logan Phillips Profile picture
Nov 4
One challenge for House Republicans - far too many of their best candidates are running in Safe R or Safe D districts.
These are the candidates that the House Forecast predicts will outperform the partisan lean of their district by the biggest percentage. That's a huge asset in a swing district. It doesn't do much for the GOP when it happens in an R+40% or D+40% district.
Literally only 8 of 100 of GOP's top projected over-performers are in races where there's at least a 5% chance of an upset.

They are:
1. Nicole Ambrose
2. Maya Flores
3. David Valadao
4. Allan Fung
5. Marc Robertson
6. Michelle Steel
7. Cory Mills
8. Mike Erickson
Read 7 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Nov 4
Jared Golden represents a district Trump won by 6% in 2020 (ME-2). However, today I am moving his race from Tossup to Tilt D, after a new Survey USA poll. Here's what the poll showed 🧵
This year is a rematch of 2018, featuring Congressman Golden (D) vs. former Congressman Poliquin (R). Back then, Golden was the challenger and won by 8.6%. That may sound like a lot, but it was also a D+8.6% wave election.
Now to the poll. Maine is a ranked-choice voting state. In Round 1, the SurveyUSA Poll showed:
Golden (D): 43.4%
Poliquin (R): 39.5%
Bond (I): 8.5%
Read 11 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Nov 4
The Marist poll presented a unique challenge for my polling average. Unlike other polls, this one had no likely voters - only two options. Registered voters, and Certain to Vote/Definitely Voting.
The challenge? Certain to vote/definitely voting appears to be a higher standard than Likely Voter - perhaps too high in a year where we expect very high turnout.
I haven't used it up to this point - but now we are at the final poll for one of the top and most influential pollsters, and we really don't want just RV voters here.
Read 4 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Nov 3
There's a real risk of another big polling miss in 2022, and that cuts in both direction.
Think back to 1948. Pollsters predicted Truman was going to lose by 5% to Dewey, and the Chicago Tribune published a Dewey Victory front page prematurely. Truman won by 5%.
You could be forgiven in 1952 for predicting Dems would be on track for victory, after Gallup's last poll showed Eisenhower up by just 2%. This time the polling miss was reversed, and Eisenhower won by double digits.
Read 6 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Nov 2
Here's something new happening in the PA Senate race. Now, there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans according to recent polling. This thread explains why this changes the dynamic of the race🧵
Previously, quite a few Republicans were skeptical of Oz. He has been able to bring them back into the GOP's camp, and it's helped him narrow the gap with Fetterman.
Now, Fetterman arguably has more room to grow now that there are more undecided Democrats. Undecided members of the same party are low-hanging fruit for candidates - chances are they will ultimately win most of their support.
Read 14 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Nov 2
Earlier today, I said Emerson College has been somewhat favorable to Republicans this cycle. A few of you disagreed, so I ran the numbers to make sure. In the last 15 Senate races they polled, Emerson pushed my polling avg. towards Republicans by 0.84% on average.
This isn't a takedown of Emerson. Some pollsters are going to miss to the left, and some to the right, and I value Emerson's perspective. They have a strong track record and are putting forth a ton of polls in a cycle where few are doing the same.
Still, it's pretty clear that they've made some adjustments, likely to avoid having similar misses from the left like in 16 and 20. An understandable decision, but now the odds are that they'll probably miss from the right instead of the left this time around.
Read 4 tweets

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