Thread by @MassDara

Russian forces are in the middle-to-late stage of a controlled withdrawal/retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson. A few thoughts about why it’s different than the panicky collapse near Kharkiv, and things to consider moving forward (/1 )

First, a word about the forces in Kherson. From @JominiW and @HN_Schlottman’s maps, the forces deployed to the west bank are (or were) considered some of Russia’s best units – multiple VDV units like the 76th, 98th,7th, 108th, and others (/2)

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1559710649747488773?s=20&t=VLuff7hEWRm2mxyJYAu3vw

By accounts of local Ukrainian soldiers in the area, the Russian grouping on the west bank has not been considered a motley crew. It was considered an experienced and exhausted force with prepared positions (/3)

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate says“the most trained and most capable Russian units are currently in Kherson. A large share of them are from airborne troops of the Russian Federation, Russian special operation forces and the naval infantry” thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…

One member of Ukraine’s territorial defense noted Russian forces on the west bank had prepared dense defensive positions, and noting “The paratroopers fight honestly. They fight well,” (/5) nytimes.com/2022/11/01/wor…

Another Ukrainian soldier says: “The Russians have very good, well-prepared positions in this area so it’s difficult to push them out,” (/6) washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/…

Why is Russia leaving? Once Ukrainian forces damaged main routes to the west bank using HIMARs this summer, (for example the Antonovsky bridge) and Russian forces could not repair it, the west bank became an untenable military position to hold. (/7)

Also: the remnants of Russia’s VDV were on the west bank. If that group is captured or KIA, it would be a blow to Russian capabilities, and a major achievement and psychological victory for UAF. If Russia’s most famous units were destroyed the news would spread fast (/8)

So Russia's choices were to stay on the west bank and be possibly encircled or destroyed, or try to conduct a controlled withdrawal. @WarintheFuture has an excellent thread about how difficult an egress under fire is, here:

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1584043380706660353?s=20&t=VLuff7hEWRm2mxyJYAu3vw

Russian forces have been slowly leaving over the last few weeks by ferry and across pontoon bridges to the east side of the Dnipro river. UAF is targeting them for example here near the Antonovsky bridge (/10)

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1587839384581283848?s=46&t=XrFQ4sj6eq4xzEvbHLqL8A

And here again leaving under fire near the Antonovsky bridge (/11)

https://twitter.com/seveerity/status/1585325934181494784?s=46&t=JFD5KyoY8rJnhMGHsc9xgQ

as this recent video reportedly from the area shows that in a warzone the other side has a vote and things get messy fast. (/12)

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586662972386156544?s=20&t=WDTujvTGl_Df4M2oCKq2sA

The withdrawal/retreat seems to be progressing without collapse or panic as of today. Suggests few things: Russian forces are probably falling back on a set of prepared defensive lines to cover the exit, and UAF is not in close pursuit for reasons i'm not sure of (/13)

Contrast with Kharkiv in September. Russian units there, undermanned, made of broken or ill-equipped units like RG, BARs, forces from Donbas, collapsed when Ukrainian forces engaged them or even before. News spread fast on the front.

https://twitter.com/Bogdan_Voron/status/1570319402460975105?s=20&t=uLoZyhrmMrDUDcHWKszPZg

Not long after the Kharkiv collapse, Russia declared annexation before the military had control of the Kremlin’s aspirations. Mobilization soon followed. These choices, in my opinion, were the Kremlin realizing its options were running out. (/15) nytimes.com/2022/10/17/opi…

Kherson’s occupation ‘government’ and soldiers have left from from checkpoints, suggesting Russian presence is winding down soon. The city could be loaded with with mines and other dangers for UAF when they enter it. (/16) thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…

What about the VDV – considered elite by many in the military? Well, a VDV one-star general came and berated a bunch of them in person, calling them peasants and failures, yet again showing how NOT to lead from @wartranslated.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1587884866536083456?s=46&t=l7hcL7zHUn8IoD6wC5YcSA

The withdrawal from Kherson is for now more controlled than Kharkiv, probably as a factor of the units fighting there and the defense positions they prepared a long time ago. A controlled withdrawal will allow the Kremlin to *try* to save face and spin this at home

I haven’t seen a huge spin-up yet, to explain the retreat in full detail. I imagine that the roll out will be coming to explain the loss of the city and perhaps holding now the eastern bank. I think they are doling out bad news in small doses. (/end)