Thread by @JohnCluverius

We have been catching hell for this poll, so in this thread, I want to lay out the case for our sample. #nhpolitics

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1588190192506109952?s=20&t=8-HknyNlrycwOSwYn8q3Zw

1. the poll isn't biased against Republicans. We have Sununu+16; others have him +18. We also show Rs well ahead in the generic state senate ballot (others don't poll that, boo.) #NHPolitics

2. We've got election deniers! Across almost all polling, you see 2020 election denial among Republicans at about 70%; we have it at 68%. #NHPolitics

3. Caveat: our sample is pro-choice af. Even conservatives in the poll say they support a right to abortion in every state in the United States. Yes really, I ran the numbers 5 times because our press people called me to make sure I triple checked it. uml.edu/docs/NH-Midter…

4. But despite that, the sample is skeptical of trans rights, quite anti-mask, and, when it comes to approval, quite anti-Biden. (only 46% approve) #NHPolitics

5a. What's interesting though is that this is a sample that views Democrats and Biden unfavorably, but sees Republicans as much worse. Bolduc's favorables are atrocious in our poll, But Biden's re-elect is +6 over Trump, with a lot of "another candidate" dissenters. #NHPolitics

5b. We didn't publish the free text results of that, but a lot of DeSantis supporters on that question, who are all supporting Bolduc. #NHPolitics

6. This is why, as opposed to a certain *other* bow-tied pollster, we ask lots of issue and candidate questions, because we want to know, big picture, what's going on in the electorate. not just the how, but as much as of the why as we can get our hands on.

7. And yeah, that's why our data are old, because we take time to build the documents that everyone loves to find little easter eggs in, and we also have a *bunch* of people look at everything before we launch. We have a really good team and I love them.

8. Do I know for a fact that Hassan is up by 10? No, I'm not a wizard. We have one poll from what I think is a good sample that says she is. There's a measure of uncertainty around that for a reason.

9. Thanks for your interest in our work!

We’re not here to beef with the forecasters, either. wrt the big one, for two professors to whine that a B+ is an A- is to approach self-parody. wrt the other one, we don’t punch down on graduate students.