Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 4 18 tweets 8 min read
There has been a lot of posts about Russian concrete bunkers being placed in Kherson on both the left & right bank of the Dnipro river.

In this 🧵we will examine Russia's "Concrete theater" against some hard reality taken from this US Army Engineer branch technical report.

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1st there are these converted by the Russians precast concrete culverts turned pillboxes

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Then with this left hand passing car-cam view video we see the newer & thicker 'lego blockhouse' design.

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And this @RALee85 right lane car-cam view of the same generation of concrete pillbox.

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And how these pillboxes are being deployed in Kherson.

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And finally this pillbox line dropped in Nova Kakhovka.

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Now for some reality.

This picture is a still from one of the earlier videos showing the actual concrete thickness through the firing slit cut into it.

My retweet below gives you the performance of a 40 mm HEDP grenade versus steel & concrete.
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This is an inside view of the same culvert bunker.

And now see this @UAWeapons tweet showing that 40 mm grenade being used by a Ukrainian drone to destroy a Russian BTR.

The concrete roof of that Russian culvert in turned pillbox in that still is less protective than this BTR's roof.

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Now for comparison, this is a standard Vietnam era precast concrete security bunker the US Army Engineer branch technical report shown in an incomplete form.

I chose this comparison because the concrete is relatively thin...

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...and because it was incomplete.

This is how this particular bunker was tricked out both to stand-off detonate mortar shells, RPG grenades or recoilless rifle rounds and reduce concrete chips from small arms & machineguns.

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Now, let's look at a still of the 2nd Russian precast concrete pillbox design video from @RALee85 .

You can see from the door and roof block that what the Russian Army went for in this design was concrete thick enough stop a 40 mm HEDP grenade.

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The US Army of the late 1970's would refer to that design as a "Concrete log design."

That is, thick rectangular logs of concrete would be assembled together with steel reinforcement and concrete mortar to build pillbox shapes of almost any size.

Again, the US Army
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...reinforced them with sandbags and placed much of the structure underground.

This made them 152/155m shell proof, plus made it incredibly difficult for RPG-7's to put a grenade through the firing port without being highly vulnerable to pillbox machinegun fire.

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This is simply NOT how the Russians are installing the 2nd generation prefab concrete pillbox designs.

A 152/155m shell hit or modern RPG will crack these prefab bunkers like eggs.

After looking at the previous photo clip, you know this is as militarily stupid as it looks.
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The Russian Army of Nov 2022 has neither shovels nor sandbags to improve its bunkers.

Now let's look at at competently built 21st century AFU concrete bunker construction & emplacement looks like from the inside in this Russian video.

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Note in this photo of an AFU concrete bunker that it has 'slat armor' to stop large caliber HEAT warheads from RPG's, missiles or AFV's cannon from properly fuzing.

And its steel shutters keep out thermobaric blast from a TOS-1 rocket when closed.

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Russia's prefab concrete bunkers being emplaced in 2022 Ukraine are inferior in execution to US Army prefab bunkers of late 1970's vintage.

And they are purest "Concrete Theater" tombs for Russia's Mobik cannon fodder compared to the bunkers AFU occupied on 24 Feb 2022.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Nov 1
Given all the "it sends the wrong message" debate around this proposal.

People are missing the underlying money & maintenance reasons the USAF wants to do this F-15C change out at Kadena AFB, Okinawa.

Air Logistics🧵

1/
The 1st F-15C's were delivered into USAF service in September 1979 (see link).

We are in October 2022, AKA 43 years ago.

Using F-15C's in 2022 is akin to the 1979 USAF using a P-36 Mohawk from 1936.

F-15C's are _OLD_.

2/
globalsecurity.org/military/syste… Image
Kadena AFB in Okinawa is right on the Pacific ocean and the salt air simply ages air frames faster.

You really don't want to base a late 30 to 40 something year old airframes in a base laden with salt water air

The accelerated corrosion from salt air causes airframe cracking
3/ ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Oct 30
A whole lot of people on Twitter are losing their minds over this boat-bomb video and making comparisons to the WW2 RN air raid on Taranto.

Just...no.

What we are seeing is the 21st century technological barriers to entry to WW2 naval special forces capability
WW2 history 🧵
1/
...being lowered for 21st century 3rd tier naval powers.

I did an earlier thread on the WW2 US Navy/USAAF/OSS boat-drone. Now I'm going to post a series of still from the point of view of of a boat-drone TV screen for you to compare to that video.



2/
This photo clip is from early in the 1944 target run on the 4,000 ton tramp freighter SS San Paulo in the Caribbean.

Note the compass heading arrow in the image.
3/
Read 21 tweets
Oct 30
Gen. Kather just proved he shouldn't be one.👇

It isn't that Putin "...fail to recognize the strength of the Ukrainian Army," than everyone lies to him.

It is the fundamental nature of a multi-decade strongman government that everyone around Putin lies to him for their own
1/5
...power agendas.

It has always been that way.

And the more a strongman tries to centralize control. The greater the incentives to that smaller and smaller clique of power to cut off the strongman from reality for their own power agenda's.

2/5
The same thing is happening right now in China to Chairman Xi.

This has fundamentally bad implications for the future Vis-à-vis a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan.

Rational military power calculations require objective assessments that simply will not happen...

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Oct 29
Multiple sources are reporting that what appears to be a series of Ukrainian boat-drones have struck multiple Russian naval targets in Sevastopol harbor.

Videos of a Russian frigate being stalked by a drone have been released by Ukraine & claims...

Historical Boat-Drone 🧵
1/
...of a Russian landing ship tank also being struck have been made.

This footage means the Black Sea fleet has lost another long range SAM platform.

This Project 11356 Grigorovich-class FFG & Moskva represent 2/3 of all such ships in its fleet.

2/
The idea of boat drones being used as anti-ship missiles is not new.

In February 2017 the Iranian backed Houthi Rebels used a Boat-Drone to crippled the Saudi Frigate al Madinah.

3/
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/7…
Read 34 tweets
Oct 19
This is the single most important piece of data in this @wartranslated 🧵

The Russian objective in the attacks on Kyiv isn't terror. It is just a "side benefit."

The RFAF objective is suppression of air defenses (SEAD) by running AFU out of surface to air missiles!

SEAD🧵
1/
The Shaheed-136 are being fired at targets Ukraine has to defend and which forces the Ukrainian integrated air defense (IADS) to engage.

Power stations and power grid components in dense urban areas are on the top of that 'must defend' list.

2/
Ukraine has one of the densest IADS in the world outside of Moscow Oblast

Nobody has the necessary density of AAA defenses for a $20,000 loitering munition with a 40kg warhead against all the vulnerable fixed targets they can engage within a 1,200km range.

3/
Read 41 tweets
Oct 18
This is hugely vital logistical development in the Russo-Ukrainian War I've been looking to happen for a couple of months.

When you outsource key transportation consumable materials to foreign nations on a just-in-time basis.

Sanctions kill your transportation capability.
1/
This is my previous comment on that score.

2/
This is one of responses to that Sept 25 2022 thread that gives the industrial background to the Russian train bearing issue.

3/
Read 18 tweets

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