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Lazarus Long Profile picture
@LazarusLong13
Nov 5, 2022 • 19 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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Another absolutely horrible take by #FireWalensky, @CDCgov

“If you go two years without getting that infection, without getting that protection from infection and then all of a sudden, boom, everybody from zero to three years gets RSV, you see the impact on health care.”
Except. That's NOT WHAT the data shows

As we can see, the biggest spike is in 0 to 6 months, and in comparison to 2018-2019, it is much greater. Roughly, per 100k, 130 versus 70, and it is still spiking.

Second biggest spike is in 6 to 12 months, at almost 80, versus 30 at
its highest.

In the 1 to 2 year olds, almost 40 this year vs. almost 20.
(The Y-axis is higher this year because of more cases).

If what Walensky is saying was true, we'd expect to see the 2 to 4 year olds screaming higher.

It's not.
But the big hitter was the zero to 6 months. What happened there?

Walensky's immunity silliness simply is irrelevant.

But this is relevant:
She really will do everything in her power to minimize CoVid, won't she?

Free version of that article here!
archive.ph/gRg9p

RSV dashboard is here - play with it, see what else you can find

cdc.gov/rsv/research/r…
This is Jose Romero, director of the NCIRD at the @CDCgov.

Jose is not thinking clearly. Has he been infected?

Why do I say he's not thinking clearly?
At the most recent CDC briefing, Jose was asked, why RSV is spreading so quickly and early.
"So we’re seeing more RSV because in the last past two years, we’ve not seen infections in children as we have previously. And so these children, if you will, need to become infected to move forward because it’s a disease very common in children. "

Literally, the XKCD comic.
But the same problem exists.

The biggest spike in hospitalizations is in the babies. 0-6 months and 6 months to 2 years. And the 0-6 months was the BIGGEST spike.

What could cause hospitalizations in that group?

Well, first what causes RSV hospitalizations?

"Pre-F antibody titers were significantly lower in mothers whose infants were hospitalized with RSV bronchiolitis compared with those mothers whose infants were not hospitalized..."

academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
So, maternal antibodies are important. Could the maternal antibodies have not been passed on because the mother did not get infected?

Fortunately, 95% of people are exposed by the time they are two, so the mother would not have had to be exposed to pass on those antibodies.
Can you imagine?

"Now that you are pregnant, let's schedule your infections. First trimester, we'll do RSV and Ebola."

Silliness.

Let's take another look at that preprint that @fitterhappieraj found

Every infant inherits their microbiome from their mom, and mom's
microbiome diversity was reduced by Covid.

And we know those infants had a unique microbiota, per above, compared to Covidians (those infected).

Indeed, SARS-CoV-2 infections during pregnancy are associated with a compromised initial microbial seed of the infant.
No big deal, right?

Wrong.

"The inherited microbiome exerts marked effects on immune programming with long-term health consequences, including susceptibility to infections or chronic inflammatory diseases and reduced vaccine efficacy"
"Therefore, this “window of opportunity” at birth, either renders infants with a healthy immune system or alternatively establishes a divergent path leading to severe immune-mediated disease susceptibility (16-24). "

Well, that sounds like pediatricians are going to be busy.
To be crystal clear, this study is NOT saying that Covid is responsible for the increase in RSV.

But it is saying Covid causes negative changes at a very important moment in the baby's life, immunologically speaking.

And since we are talking about more severe RSV cases?
It seems to be directly related.

Or, at the very least, much more plausible than a concept invented last year. A concept that Fox & Friends has been pushing.

Was it bleach they last pushed? Or herd immunity?

In any event, both Walensky and the director of the CDC are also
pushing immunity debt like universities pushing student loan debt.

Someone needs #FireWalensky, and put Jose on notice.

@CDCgov? That microbiome spoiled once #FireWalemsky got hold of it.

Maybe probiotics could save the #xkcdCDC. Maybe.
The RSV surge in the 0-6 month old babies, which eliminates "immunity debt/gap" as a viable hypothesis?

Will have very real consequences down the road. This is not surprising given measles ability to wipe out immune memory

frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…

H/t @Gene_PHL @Comm_in_Care

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More from @LazarusLong13

Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 7
COVID is as transmissible as measles?!

"BUT, BUT, measles can infect up to 90% of people they are in contact with!"

So can COVID.

Time to wake up. The lecturer tried to promote sales of a flax oil product, and many elderly people were lured to attend by the promise of free eggs, Xinhua News Agency reported. He gave three lectures on Jan 10 and 11 in a Tonghua classroom while not wearing a mask, with each lecture lasting about 2.5 hours. A total of 97 people, most of them retirees, attended the lectures in a classroom whose doors and windows were closed, the China CDC report said. The lecturer went to a pharmacy at noon on Jan 10 due to muscle pain and other symptoms, indicating he was likely at an early stage of the disease then, it ...
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi…

govt.chinadaily.com.cn/s/202102/20/WS… Image
So, some will be pushing back - always welcome, albeit this is anticipated.

Rnaught is just an estimate.

The famous measles 12-18 is shown below.

But the R0 of 6-8 has the most estimates.

Free
sci-hub.se/https://doi.or…

Pay
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 8 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 6
Remember THAT scene from Outbreak with Dustin Hoffman - "It's Airborne." ?

SARS-COV-2 is airborne via HVAC. Just like TB is - but it is way more contagious.

Still no panic, right? We know how to be safe.

Motel 6, or AirBNB - no shared HVAC, is best.

But HOW do we know?

🧵
A recent study in South Africa used Syrian Hamsters to duplicate the study that finally convinced everyone that TB was airborne.

The TB study is interesting because the military vets in VA hospitals were getting infected disproportionately.

So, they used HVAC ducting to In 1956, tuberculosis was a major global killer, and it disproportionately affected military veterans hospitalized in the Veterans Administration hospital system. Then, as now with COVID-19, epidemiologists held that tuberculosis and other respiratory diseases were spread by large infected droplets through person-to-person contact or contaminated surfaces. But Richard L. Riley, an expert on lung physiology at the then Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, and his mentor, William F. Wells, had identified another possible mode of transmission.
connect a 6 room TB ward to 150 guinea pigs.

Of those 150, only 3 PER MONTH got infected.

Illustrating that TRANSMISSIBILITY is just a CLUE to if something is airborne.

Dr. Riley went on to patent UVC tech, and develop the Wells-Riley equation which is so important in airborne Atop the Baltimore VA Hospital, they constructed an air-tight closed ventilation system that connected a six-room tuberculosis ward to an exposure chamber with 150 guinea pigs. (Among rodent animal models, only guinea pigs could cough and sneeze, making them ideal for studying how respiratory diseases spread.) The guinea pigs were exposed to the infected air over a four-year period. A second group of 150 guinea pigs acted as controls: their air ducts were irradiated with UV-C lamps to kill TB bacilli.
In the test group, an average of three guinea pigs per month contracted TB, while no controls were infected. The experiment not only proved the airborne disease transmission of tuberculosis for the first time, but also quantified how many TB infections could be expected to result from exposure to a given number of patients over a defined interval.
The insights from the Baltimore VA Hospital studies were later used to develop the Wells-Riley equation, which quantifies infection risk and informs strategies to ensure staff and patient safety in contagious clinical environments. The model can also calculate the risks of transmission for airborne infections on planes and trains, in prisons, and in other public and institutional spaces. As chair of the Department of Environmental Medicine from 1960 to 1977, Riley warned that the danger of infection from airborne diseases was increasing as people spent more time indoors and air conditionin...
Read 8 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 1
Plaque, Stephan's Curve (Imperative) mixed with breakfasts that you can brush immediately after.

It's actually best if you brush immediately up on waking up. This gets the overnight plaque.

It starts forming 4-6 hours after you sleep - your saliva is 20 millititers/hr Dental Plaque on the bristles of a used toothbrush. Yep, that came out of your mouth.
- during the day. At night? Just 3-6 ml.

Saliva washes away the bacteria, it contains bicarbonate, phosphate, and protein buffers that neutralize the acids being pooped out by the bacteria.

It also has the below ingredients. Who knew saliva was so cool?!

Or plaque? Antimicrobial Components Lysozyme: breaks down bacterial cell walls. Lactoferrin: binds iron, starving bacteria. Peroxidases: inhibit bacterial metabolism. Immunoglobulin A (IgA): prevents bacterial adhesion to teeth.
Plauque forming bacteria.
By brushing first thing, fluoridating, and then waiting a 1/2 hour before eating, you just prepped your teeth for their Acid Trip through the day.

Like if you like salsa on your breakfast burrito like I do.

But what is a good breakfast if you have NO TIME to wait for the 60 tripping the light fantastic.
Read 35 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Aug 27
Ah, it's that time of year again. The pitter patter of children's feet. The laughter of high school students as they flirt with each other.

The coughs of their parents.

Is a Portable Air Cleaner (PAC) on a desk aimed at the wee ones' faces going to protect them? Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High with a Levoit Air Cleaner pointing at his face braced up with a weight. In the middle of his pizza. Not cool, man, not cool.
TLDR? No. They need to be in a N95 or KF94 purchased from legit distributors, not from Amazon, and eat their food outdoors, spaced far enough away from their friends so as not get infected. Or use @sipmask and protein shakes at lunch in the cafetaria.

You need to teach them
about how it can take as little as one breath of uncleaned-air to get infected (100 virions study on my profile). How it can mess them up in terms of their entire body.

You need to have the "Birds and the Bees and Covid" talk, in other words.

But will a PAC aimed at their
Read 24 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Aug 23
People often underestimate the power of having someone with the reputation of Wolfgang Leitner, weighing in.

This is truly a significant development.

Personally, I prefer to let the studies do their own talking, but Voice Of Authority bears considerable weight in the real world
Just a few awards Image
An actual Conference Organizer. You underestimate the political savvy and pull this takes - and gives them. Image
Read 7 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Aug 21
Calley is lying from the very first sentence. The media is not cheering for MAHA to fail. They are cheering for antivaxxers to fail.

We all want to see better food, less chemicals.

But we are not idiots.

The single largest gain in American life expectancy was
between 1900 and 1940, primarily because of improved water & sewer sanitation. Adding 16 years of life expectancy.

And vaccines are a close second - adding 5-10 years a bit later - in the last half of the century.

If we get rid of vaccines? We lose 5 to 26 years, depending
if we lose smallpox and diptheria.

There's another thing. Calley wants us working on the below things.

The Red Arrows point to things that will not mean a thing because of the next tweet. Image
Read 15 tweets

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