Lazarus Long Profile picture
Nov 5, 2022 19 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Another absolutely horrible take by #FireWalensky, @CDCgov

“If you go two years without getting that infection, without getting that protection from infection and then all of a sudden, boom, everybody from zero to three years gets RSV, you see the impact on health care.”
Except. That's NOT WHAT the data shows

As we can see, the biggest spike is in 0 to 6 months, and in comparison to 2018-2019, it is much greater. Roughly, per 100k, 130 versus 70, and it is still spiking.

Second biggest spike is in 6 to 12 months, at almost 80, versus 30 at
its highest.

In the 1 to 2 year olds, almost 40 this year vs. almost 20.
(The Y-axis is higher this year because of more cases).

If what Walensky is saying was true, we'd expect to see the 2 to 4 year olds screaming higher.

It's not.
But the big hitter was the zero to 6 months. What happened there?

Walensky's immunity silliness simply is irrelevant.

But this is relevant:
She really will do everything in her power to minimize CoVid, won't she?

Free version of that article here!
archive.ph/gRg9p

RSV dashboard is here - play with it, see what else you can find

cdc.gov/rsv/research/r…
This is Jose Romero, director of the NCIRD at the @CDCgov.

Jose is not thinking clearly. Has he been infected?

Why do I say he's not thinking clearly?
At the most recent CDC briefing, Jose was asked, why RSV is spreading so quickly and early.
"So we’re seeing more RSV because in the last past two years, we’ve not seen infections in children as we have previously. And so these children, if you will, need to become infected to move forward because it’s a disease very common in children. "

Literally, the XKCD comic.
But the same problem exists.

The biggest spike in hospitalizations is in the babies. 0-6 months and 6 months to 2 years. And the 0-6 months was the BIGGEST spike.

What could cause hospitalizations in that group?

Well, first what causes RSV hospitalizations?

"Pre-F antibody titers were significantly lower in mothers whose infants were hospitalized with RSV bronchiolitis compared with those mothers whose infants were not hospitalized..."

academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
So, maternal antibodies are important. Could the maternal antibodies have not been passed on because the mother did not get infected?

Fortunately, 95% of people are exposed by the time they are two, so the mother would not have had to be exposed to pass on those antibodies.
Can you imagine?

"Now that you are pregnant, let's schedule your infections. First trimester, we'll do RSV and Ebola."

Silliness.

Let's take another look at that preprint that @fitterhappieraj found

Every infant inherits their microbiome from their mom, and mom's
microbiome diversity was reduced by Covid.

And we know those infants had a unique microbiota, per above, compared to Covidians (those infected).

Indeed, SARS-CoV-2 infections during pregnancy are associated with a compromised initial microbial seed of the infant.
No big deal, right?

Wrong.

"The inherited microbiome exerts marked effects on immune programming with long-term health consequences, including susceptibility to infections or chronic inflammatory diseases and reduced vaccine efficacy"
"Therefore, this “window of opportunity” at birth, either renders infants with a healthy immune system or alternatively establishes a divergent path leading to severe immune-mediated disease susceptibility (16-24). "

Well, that sounds like pediatricians are going to be busy.
To be crystal clear, this study is NOT saying that Covid is responsible for the increase in RSV.

But it is saying Covid causes negative changes at a very important moment in the baby's life, immunologically speaking.

And since we are talking about more severe RSV cases?
It seems to be directly related.

Or, at the very least, much more plausible than a concept invented last year. A concept that Fox & Friends has been pushing.

Was it bleach they last pushed? Or herd immunity?

In any event, both Walensky and the director of the CDC are also
pushing immunity debt like universities pushing student loan debt.

Someone needs #FireWalensky, and put Jose on notice.

@CDCgov? That microbiome spoiled once #FireWalemsky got hold of it.

Maybe probiotics could save the #xkcdCDC. Maybe.
The RSV surge in the 0-6 month old babies, which eliminates "immunity debt/gap" as a viable hypothesis?

Will have very real consequences down the road. This is not surprising given measles ability to wipe out immune memory

frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…

H/t @Gene_PHL @Comm_in_Care

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More from @LazarusLong13

Jun 10
Please explain how a study measuring physical improvement in a Cognitive and Behavioral study can have unmeasured Graded Exercise Therapy - and be considered as well-controlled. Not confounded.

So, I emailed Dr. Ebell and asked how that was nitpicking. Image
Image
I also agreed with the comments at the bottom of the study, linked below.

If you change analysis protocols post hoc? That's not nitpicking in my book. But maybe that is nitpicking?

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Science is ALL about nitpicking. You ARE SUPPOSED to be very detailed, so you can be replicated, right? Alan is funny.

Anyway, amusing to spot the lobbying group for the Lightning Process on their advisory board.

Tch tch. Or is that nitpicking. ;) ? Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 1
A thread on airborne Ebola - the rest is accurate.

Let me emphasize that I agree far more than disagree with her, in general.

Declaring a thing debunked without actually debunking it, with facts, is not debunking.

So, let me debunk this. Image
Dr. Kuppila has excellent credentials, and has earned her laurels.

If we accepted the debunking of airborne Ebola on the basis of credentials, we would have given into the fallacy of appeal to authority.

:) not today.

She worked in an Ebola Treatment Unit in Sierra Leone,
coming back in December 2014, and now resides in Dallas per her very interesting StatNews article:



She did not get infected. We could have survivorship bias here - fortunately.

This is a reference to possible surgical mask usage by her.

You see, the web.archive.org/web/2026052103…Image
Read 22 tweets
May 28
Ebola - it's not all about respiratory aerosols.

DYK that you, and me, and everybody are Pig Pen from Charlie Brown?

We shed our entire outer layer of skin every 2-4 weeks, about 500 million cells daily.

Your corneocytes (outermost cells) lift off of your body with the
gentlest of micro-air currents. Like a leaf picked up off the ground for the briefest of moments in fall.

They act like 12 micron aerosols in float time, but 25% of total skin flakes are sub 5 microns...and you know what that means. Deep deposition - or shallow as
sub 5 likes to also deposit in the nose.

It's funny...I embrace push-back in debate. Tightens up my game.

Imagine if those skin flakes now have Ebola on them?

Two studies show that Ebola literally oozes through the skin - both ways. In and out.

Not shown in vivo, but
Read 10 tweets
May 23
The WHO forbids contact tracers from masking or gloving up.

"Do not conduct home visits wearing personal protective equipment like masks, gloves, or
gowns."

It gets worse. Do not conduct home visits wearing personal protective equipment like masks, gloves, or  gowns.
They have a handy how to reduce risk of catching ebola at home.

It even has 5 masks listed on it.

But not for the other family members.

"7. If the patient has vomit, diarrhoea or bleeding, a mask or a dry towel wrapped around the face can be used to protect the nose and mouth Image
7. If the patient has vomit, diarrhoea or bleeding, a mask or a dry towel wrapped around the face can be used to protect the nose and mouth when touching the patient or items soiled with blood or body fluids. A waterproof gown, eye protection, gloves and rubber boots should also be worn in these circumstances.
Here are the 5 face masks. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 22
The "epidemiology" of Ebola tells us that it's not airborne. You've heard this over and over.

What drives it? The questions on the contact tracing form.

Quick 🧵. Image
COVID - the WHO and CDC said it wasn't airborne via aerosols, right?

The CDC said it was spread person to person via close contact - within about 6 feet.



And you remember it took FOREVER to get changed.

The contact tracing form was web.archive.org/web/2020032817…Image
Image
arranged around close contact. These are the questions driving the stats of how many and how are infected.



So, the CDC will only hear back what it's asking. This was the epidemiology of COVID - until it wasn't. web.archive.org/web/2020052514…Image
Read 16 tweets
May 20
Speaking of silly, can we agree that the WHO has Ebola experts?

Let's talk about PPE, and a bias towards "less PPE is better." Image
The WHO EBOLA IPC guidance:


Foreshadow on PPE

"...due to the desirability of an off-
the-face design, and not for protection from aerosols, respirators may be used instead of medical masks"who.int/publications/i…
If you can stay 3 feet away while screening? No medical mask needed. Image
Image
Read 12 tweets

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