Lazarus Long Profile picture
Nov 5, 2022 19 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Another absolutely horrible take by #FireWalensky, @CDCgov

“If you go two years without getting that infection, without getting that protection from infection and then all of a sudden, boom, everybody from zero to three years gets RSV, you see the impact on health care.”
Except. That's NOT WHAT the data shows

As we can see, the biggest spike is in 0 to 6 months, and in comparison to 2018-2019, it is much greater. Roughly, per 100k, 130 versus 70, and it is still spiking.

Second biggest spike is in 6 to 12 months, at almost 80, versus 30 at
its highest.

In the 1 to 2 year olds, almost 40 this year vs. almost 20.
(The Y-axis is higher this year because of more cases).

If what Walensky is saying was true, we'd expect to see the 2 to 4 year olds screaming higher.

It's not.
But the big hitter was the zero to 6 months. What happened there?

Walensky's immunity silliness simply is irrelevant.

But this is relevant:
She really will do everything in her power to minimize CoVid, won't she?

Free version of that article here!
archive.ph/gRg9p

RSV dashboard is here - play with it, see what else you can find

cdc.gov/rsv/research/r…
This is Jose Romero, director of the NCIRD at the @CDCgov.

Jose is not thinking clearly. Has he been infected?

Why do I say he's not thinking clearly?
At the most recent CDC briefing, Jose was asked, why RSV is spreading so quickly and early.
"So we’re seeing more RSV because in the last past two years, we’ve not seen infections in children as we have previously. And so these children, if you will, need to become infected to move forward because it’s a disease very common in children. "

Literally, the XKCD comic.
But the same problem exists.

The biggest spike in hospitalizations is in the babies. 0-6 months and 6 months to 2 years. And the 0-6 months was the BIGGEST spike.

What could cause hospitalizations in that group?

Well, first what causes RSV hospitalizations?

"Pre-F antibody titers were significantly lower in mothers whose infants were hospitalized with RSV bronchiolitis compared with those mothers whose infants were not hospitalized..."

academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
So, maternal antibodies are important. Could the maternal antibodies have not been passed on because the mother did not get infected?

Fortunately, 95% of people are exposed by the time they are two, so the mother would not have had to be exposed to pass on those antibodies.
Can you imagine?

"Now that you are pregnant, let's schedule your infections. First trimester, we'll do RSV and Ebola."

Silliness.

Let's take another look at that preprint that @fitterhappieraj found

Every infant inherits their microbiome from their mom, and mom's
microbiome diversity was reduced by Covid.

And we know those infants had a unique microbiota, per above, compared to Covidians (those infected).

Indeed, SARS-CoV-2 infections during pregnancy are associated with a compromised initial microbial seed of the infant.
No big deal, right?

Wrong.

"The inherited microbiome exerts marked effects on immune programming with long-term health consequences, including susceptibility to infections or chronic inflammatory diseases and reduced vaccine efficacy"
"Therefore, this “window of opportunity” at birth, either renders infants with a healthy immune system or alternatively establishes a divergent path leading to severe immune-mediated disease susceptibility (16-24). "

Well, that sounds like pediatricians are going to be busy.
To be crystal clear, this study is NOT saying that Covid is responsible for the increase in RSV.

But it is saying Covid causes negative changes at a very important moment in the baby's life, immunologically speaking.

And since we are talking about more severe RSV cases?
It seems to be directly related.

Or, at the very least, much more plausible than a concept invented last year. A concept that Fox & Friends has been pushing.

Was it bleach they last pushed? Or herd immunity?

In any event, both Walensky and the director of the CDC are also
pushing immunity debt like universities pushing student loan debt.

Someone needs #FireWalensky, and put Jose on notice.

@CDCgov? That microbiome spoiled once #FireWalemsky got hold of it.

Maybe probiotics could save the #xkcdCDC. Maybe.
The RSV surge in the 0-6 month old babies, which eliminates "immunity debt/gap" as a viable hypothesis?

Will have very real consequences down the road. This is not surprising given measles ability to wipe out immune memory

frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…

H/t @Gene_PHL @Comm_in_Care

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More from @LazarusLong13

Jul 27
AVERAGE CO2 in the dead space below an N95? 1-3% - or 10,000 to 30,000 ppm. Scary?

No. You see that's the average.

Humans have focused on average or peak exhalations/waveforms.

We haven't studied the LOW POINT with capnography.

We have done it with simulations. Image
There are no published experimental (human) capnography studies inside N95 dead space that show the CO₂ dropping down as low as ~0.4% within a single exhalation. Human trials typically measure peak or average values rather than full breath waveforms.
As you can see, the amount of CO2 in the N95 goes down.

Why? Because the air around us has so much less CO2. When we inhale, it mixes with that high CO2.

Dilution and diffusion both at play.
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…Image
As all of us who has ever worn a mask/N95, which is most of the world, knows, we don't suffer the effects of inhaling 30,000 ppm all day.

Lets look at this a different way.

What if we were in a room with huge CO2? That's what antimaskers are implying is going on.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 27
How NOT to Science. A time travel thread and magic.

This is Helmut Traindl - the engineer who devised the procedure behind Walach CO2 study that was retracted after 16 days:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…

Then, republished by Dr. Domingo just 6 months later.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
@RetractionWatch had an interesting write-up on how it was republished by Dr. Domingo.

It rings of plausible deniability. Except it smells vaguely of bad faith.

retractionwatch.com/2022/08/01/one…Image
Turns out that @TecnATox was founded, and is directed by Dr. Domingo.

You'll be hearing from me, Dr. Domingo - and a rather lot more people, once I get done writing all of this up.

You see, I found the pilot video.

Read 14 tweets
Jul 24
So, in your apartment or hotel, we saw below how its heated facade, or front, could drive your downstairs neighbor cough into your lungs.

Let's step inside your living room now, and step forward in time to winter.

What happens if your sick neighbor is seated in that living /1
room?

Where is the worst place for them to be seated if you have your heat coming from a heat register up on the wall?

Next to your cold window.

The cold air cools your sick neighbor's exhaled infectious air, and drives it to the ground.

Where it sidles along until Image
Image
you and your family's bodies' thermal plumes pick up that air, and lifts it up to your faces to be breathed in.

Or....to put this in another way....if you go to a coffee shop as I like to do, and you see someone coughing next to a cold window? Do not dawdle.

Leave.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 21
I looked at your thread @moog77 . The reason that epidemiological didn't work (cases continued to go up)? Is the same reason the 2023 Cochrane fails, ironically, after you touted it as the "gold standard."

Not because clean air doesn't reduce cases. It empirically does. It
just doesn't do it where it's not being applied.

What do I mean?

2023 Cochrane "the gold standard" - for community masking is based on a few studies.

One is Alfelali (2020) set in the Haji season
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC75…
2 to 3 million religious pilgrims crammed into a few locations, sleeping 50 to hundreds in tent, head to toe.

Respiratory disease is typically 50% in total. Perhaps the single largest mass infection in history, year after year.

A few of them given surgical masks, and told
Read 13 tweets
Jul 21
Do you live in an apartment or stay in hotels?

Got a "oops, outside air can get you" study. Coming out of Beijing University of Technology - taking airborne transmission seriously.

They rented 50 rooms of a building. Did some very cool CFD work - then, be still my heart, Image
followed it up with tracer gas experimentation.

See room 303 above? 403 and 503 got whatever came out of 303.

With studies like these, there are so many variables. But, if I lived in an apartment, I would set have at least a PC fan CR Box next to those open windows.
Or an HRV set up in that window. And for sure a PC fan CR box next to the front door for under the door airflow.

x.com/VentiloAngel/s…

Not HRV, but equally valid
x.com/Engineer_Wong/…
Read 17 tweets
Jul 20
Swimming and showering.

Below is the thread of collected "swimming/ showering safer in indoor shared air" solutions, so far.

You might be thinking that the chlorine smell protects you near the pool. Chlorox is great.

But you would be thinking incorrectly.

Thread. Filti media wrapped out an inside brace made out of zip ties.  Laugh all you want, but it works, yo.
Have there been indoor swimming pool transmission events? Yes.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34606662/

And more.

Were they in the swimming pool or in the more likely shower/ locker rooms or lobby? Nobody has teased that out.
You do not smell chlorine gas in the pool. If you were actually smelling real chlorine gas, you had better start running for the door.

You are smelling trichloramine - from sweat, urine, body oils when there is not enough free chlorine.

frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…“It is a common misconception that a strong chlorine odor is caused by too much chlorine in the water. The odor is actually caused by chloramines (combined chlorines) off-gassing from the pool water surface.  Chloramines are formed in the pool water when there is insufficient free chlorine in the pool to address the nitrogen-containing compounds brought into the pool water by the swimmers. These nitrogen compounds are naturally occurring and contained in sweat, urine, body oils, and other proteins that get released into the pool water. If the introduction of these nitrogen compounds outpace...
Read 29 tweets

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