Thread by @jmontforttx

🧵Let's get down to #earlyvoting brass tacks. Final Total Votes:
EV: 5.15M
Mail ballots 319K
Total 5.47M which was 31% of voters
'18 EV: 4.52M
629K more votes in '22

The Top 7 Urban/ Suburban bluer counties finished strong, above '18's haul yesterday. This was thanks to Harris County, which came in w/ 105K votes. Overall the top 7 came up short 297K votes from '18. Not too bad, but it means ED needs to be strong for Democrats to have a shot.

The bluer counties had a slower start due to limited voting hours in week 1. I place the blame squarely on the #txlege who addressed voting hours last session by limiting them. Beginning Saturday when younger, working folks could vote, they did and kept going all week.

A second weekend of EV needs to be added. People need to be able to vote when they are not exhausted after work on a Friday while standing out in the rain wondering if a tornado is going to sweep them away. It is nonsense. #txlege

The Big Counties. Harris Came in strong in week 2 delivering 105K votes on the last day and a total of 692K EVs. Dallas Finished with a respectable 391K, but 100K short of '18.

Tarrant, Travis, Collin, and Denton all overperformed most of week 2 after a slow start due to limited voting hours for solid finishes. Tarrant came within 2K votes of outvoting Dallas and becoming the #2 with 389K.

Tea leaves.
Everyone wants to know where TX Dems stand. My gut tells me this race will be similar to '18. According to @TargetSmart 1.9M R's have voted v. 1.7M D's w/ 646K unknowns. The unknowns will play kingmakers. Targetsmart also shows R's voting less w/ a 6pt drop from '18

This election is going to come down to which side got their voters to the polls. If Targetmsart is right, D's likely have an advantage going into ED. But with a large pool of unknowns, it is hard to say.

We will know on Tuesday whether TX is changing course. Remember folks, this is a marathon, not a race. Regardless of the results, we have work to do. This state is shifting and the GOP will do everything it can to hold onto power as long as it can. But the shift can't be stopped.

An overview comparison of EV.

2018 2022
⬆️Registered12.2M 17.6M
⬆️Early Votes4.5M 5.2M
⬇️⬇️% 37% 29%
⬇️Mail-In Ballots: 370k 319k
⬆️Total Votes 4.9M 5.5M
⬇️⬇️% Reg Voters 40% 31%

5.4M more reg. voters this year over '18 with 600K+ more voters, but a 9%⬇️.