The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
Nov 6, 2022 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read β€’ Read on X
#OPTIONS
#STRADDLE
Some strategies and their setup

today is straddle

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Some terms:

This is a straddle set up

you lose if stonk stays in 9 range
win if 8 or 10

1) Probability of profit (POP)
2) Extrinsic value (EXT)
3) 50% profit
4) Delta
5) Theta
6) Max profit
7) Max loss

Cost to set up 147$

December strike
Every day this set up will lose theta (5) if you are a buyer, and gain in value if you are a seller

In the straddle above, you are a buyer on both sides, so you are risking loss

The higher the IV the faster the change.

And the closer to expiration the faster the change
I actually plan to open this one monday - what has happened is options have been completely torched.

Looking at move of currencies, friday was extreme, yet xlf barely budged.

XLF moves opposite currency, which makes sense.

Will that unswap next week?
In this straddle example, if IV stays the same, and instrument does not change in price, i lose $2.54 per day.

The plan is to see which way the market plans to run, especially in overnight when they do these swaps.

i can easily cover one side of the position if its wrong.
Notice the move vs currency (uup = dollar)

also notice that past few trading session the accumulation is NOT favorible... so this move looks mostly currency driven.
Here is the xlf put and call option pricing over past couple months. If you OWNED a call OR a put, you got crushed....

Money flow is OUT of derivatives
I do see a potential vix crush continuing

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More from @VietVantage

Sep 28
The US is hell bent on destroying the dollar.

I got curious why US would extend a swap line to a shit country that has failed to repay its debts.

For context here is the weekly view of USDARS

Up on this chart is massive inflation for the locals.

The currency is worthless
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China said no more Image
US stepped in (shit) Image
Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 26
I look at the market upside down from you, but today i'll make an exception.

This is OVX - its oil volatility.

OVX and VIX are positively correlated.

On this chart? Ovx is rising (going down).
πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅ Image
OVX and SPY are negatively correlated.

If you are a bull you want the yellow line to go up Image
That is the 5y USA bond. When it goes up it costs more to take an autoloan or borrow money.

Markets traditionally do not like it when yields go up like this. Image
Read 54 tweets
Jun 26
This is beef.

Since covid its up nearly 175%

Many of you eat hamburger and madonnas.

This is why madonna's is no longer affordable.
πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅ Image
Here is mcdonna's vs beef

"Oz - they didnt collapse with beef going up??!"

correct.

And there's raisons.... Image
Enter currencies - zimbabwe'ing the currency has implications for the underlying

when u c it Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 25
The Final Reckoning - A Nation Consumes Itself
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I study the vix, geopolitics and currencies - trying to make sense of what is actually happening in the context of sound bites we get here or there from government.

Its hard to paint an actual picture from a single sound bite or news article.

But when you put them all together you paint a tapestry - some call it a masterpiece - others call it a dystopian hellscape.

For each point I will try to include a relevant news topic.

Lets begin.
The U.S. is not just struggling; it's in a death spiral.

Driven by hyperinflation & desperation, the government is making choices that solidify its descent into kleptocracy and civil breakdown.

Here’s the terrifying truth that is unfolding
Crypto: Not Innovation, But Capitulation.

The government, facing a worthless dollar, is now frantically trying to contain crypto by regulating it into the banking system.

This isn't forward-thinking; it's a desperate attempt to co-opt the flight from fiat before total loss of control.

Its an admission the dollar is no longer a store of value which is pretty damning for a government to turn against its own currency like this.

#DeDollarization #CryptoControl

abcnews.go.com/Business/geniu…
Read 35 tweets
Jun 17
Lets build.

This is my calculated vix.
The higher it goes the higher the vix should be.

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It is a function of bond yields.
Bond yields SLOW the markets down.
Its MORE expensive to borrow

The west runs on finance- price of debt (the yield) matters a lot, just like it matters to you when you buy a car a house or put chipotle on credit. Image
Zoomed in on right side Image
Read 42 tweets
Jun 17
A while back i calculated what the vix SHOULD be based on yields.

(1) you can see clear correlation
(2) it broke but the peaks still match
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The vix is a function of bond yields. Image
Read 9 tweets

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