Thread by @ArrushAdityadev

👉#Copper shot up 7.57% on 4th November 2022.

Do you know❔
👉When was the last time we saw such a wild move in copper❔

It was
🔸on 6th Feb 2009
When copper shot up 8.57% in a single day.

🔸So what happened on 4th was "Move of the Decade"🧵

👉Like & Retweet if u like d work

But why did copper rose like there is no tomorrow ?

- On optimism that there might be relaxation in China’s Covid policies

- A steep decline in the dollar

- Historical low inventory of copper

Why is falling dollar good for copper ?

- A slumping dollar boosts purchasing power for commodities consumer countries like China.

- Yuan appreciated the most against USD since 2005.

#Copper inventories are at an all time low.
Its equivalent to only 3 days of global consumption

Global exchange inventory was 13,00,000 metric tonnes in march 2022

Now it is less than 6,00,000 metric tonnes

Freeport-McMoran is a leading international mining company operating large, long-lived diverse assets with significant reserves of copper.

Look what does the CEO of Freeport-McMoran say...

"The industry continues to struggle to meet production targets & inventories remain low by historical levels...We've been recovering from the 2020 downturn where we took down a lot of production..we're ramping back up & it takes a long time to get that flywheel going"

But why did the prices remain so muted in 2022 that it shot up so much in a day ?

- Strength of US dollar
- rising interest rates
- European energy crisis
- Poor Chinese economic data
- Concerns about the health of the global economy
- Probability of recession

Positive triggers for the copper going forward

- Secular growth in metals demand required for clean energy technology.

- Physical demand remains strong

- Inventories low by historic standards

- There are ongoing supply disruption in Latin America

When on 6th Feb 2009 copper shot up 8.57% in a single day.

Do you know
👉What happened next ?
👉What happened in next 3 months ?

Copper shot up 37% in about 3 months

Now
Which are the dominant companies dealing copper ?

The Indian Copper Industry has 3 primary producers of Copper -

🔸Sterlite Industries (#Vedanta Ltd),

🔸#Hindalco Industries and

🔸#hindustanCopper Ltd

VEDL
MARKET CAPITAL
₹ 1,12,390 Cr.

P/E
6.94

33% (as of Mar 18)
Copper Market Share

216,000MTPA (as of Aug 22)
Manufacturing Capacity - Copper Cathodes

ROE
Latest28.76%
3yr Average11.73%
5yr Average12.57%

ROCE
Latest30.15%
3yr Average20.57%
5yr Average19.33%

NET PROFIT MARGIN
Latest14.17%
3yr Average6.48%
5yr Average7.68%

DEBT TO EQUITY
Latest0.98
3yr Average1.09
5yr Average1.05

VEDL - Shady management
But accumulation can be seen on the charts

Hindustan Copper - Consolidating with little positive bias

Hindustan Copper

MARKET CAPITAL
₹ 10,144 Cr.

P/E
26.33

4.80% (as of Aug 22)
Capacity Utilization - Copper Wire Rods

60,000MTPA (as of Aug 22)
Manufacturing Capacity - Copper Wire Rods

68,500MTPA (as of Jul 21)
Manufacturing Capacity - Copper Cathodes

ROE
Latest19.56%
3yr Average-9.88%
5yr Average-3.11%

ROCE
Latest20.54%
3yr Average-0.01%
5yr Average4.34%

NET PROFIT MARGIN
Latest20.52%
3yr Average-13.92%
5yr Average-5.8%

DEBT TO EQUITY
Latest0.21
3yr Average0.96
5yr Average0.79

Hindalco

MARKET CAPITAL
₹ 92,281 Cr.

P/E
6.13

SHARE PRICE
₹ 430.55 20.2

50% (as of Mar 18)
Copper Segment Market Share

86.40% (as of Aug 22)
Capacity Utilization - Cathodes

500,000MTPA (as of Aug 22)
Manufacturing Capacity - Copper Cathodes

752.19$/Tonne (as of Jun 22)
EBITDA/Tonne - Copper

101,000Tonnes (as of Jun 22)
Quarterly Sales Volume - Copper

ROE
Latest17.56%
3yr Average9.75%
5yr Average9.98%

ROCE
Latest15.74%
3yr Average10.77%
5yr Average10.3%

NET PROFIT MARGIN
Latest7.04%
3yr Average4.29%
5yr Average4.47%

DEBT TO EQUITY
Latest0.84
3yr Average1.0
5yr Average0.97

Hindalco - Good volume participation ,
Buyers are willing to pay higher price.

None of these are buy or sell recommendations.
I have simply put a techofunda perspective and relevant data points.

That's pretty much it.
Any new trend develops in the market and you don't track the technicals so closely ,don't worry
I have got you covered.
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@ArrushAdityadev
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Like and Retweet the first tweet if you learned something new today 🙌

Good day guys
Happy weekend 🥂

By the way
👉🏻Are there some hidden gems in the metal pack in the smallcap and midcap space which I have missed?

👉🏻👉🏻 If yes then pls share the names