Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Copper
Most recents (24)
One of the best ways to learn about the Copper Industry is by studying the Top 10 Global Producers.
I read each of the Top 10 #Copper Producer quarterly reports so you don't have to.
Here's a thread on the most important data and themes from the world's largest players ... 🧵
I read each of the Top 10 #Copper Producer quarterly reports so you don't have to.
Here's a thread on the most important data and themes from the world's largest players ... 🧵
1/ Codelco $CODELCO
• Copper Production DOWN 9% to 357.1Kmft
• Cash Costs UP 33.7% to $2.04
• Reasons for Product Decline: Operational difficulties, lower production and ore grades, and mine shutdowns
• Reasons for High Cash Costs: Higher input prices (diesel & electric).
• Copper Production DOWN 9% to 357.1Kmft
• Cash Costs UP 33.7% to $2.04
• Reasons for Product Decline: Operational difficulties, lower production and ore grades, and mine shutdowns
• Reasons for High Cash Costs: Higher input prices (diesel & electric).
2/ Freeport-McMoRan $FCX
• Copper Production DOWN 4.3% to 965Mlbs
• Cash Costs UP 33% to $1.76/lb
• Reasons for Production Decline: Lower ore grades, unplanned maintenance, weather
• Reasons for Cash Cost Increase: Lower volumes, higher labor and energy costs
• Copper Production DOWN 4.3% to 965Mlbs
• Cash Costs UP 33% to $1.76/lb
• Reasons for Production Decline: Lower ore grades, unplanned maintenance, weather
• Reasons for Cash Cost Increase: Lower volumes, higher labor and energy costs
Hello Wednesday! 🐫
$NIKK > 30,000 for the 1st time since Nov '21
#Bitcoin back < 27,000
#Copper eviscerated
$WTIC teetering at 70
$USD firm at 102.69
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$NIKK > 30,000 for the 1st time since Nov '21
#Bitcoin back < 27,000
#Copper eviscerated
$WTIC teetering at 70
$USD firm at 102.69
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asian democracies ↗️
$NIKK 30094 +0.85% ⬅️♉️
$SSEC 3284 -0.2%
$TWII 15925 +1.6%
$HSI 19529 -2.25%
$KOSPI 2495 +0.6%
$IDX 6672 -0.05%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7199 -0.5%
India ↘️
$BSE 61393 -0.85%
$NIKK 30094 +0.85% ⬅️♉️
$SSEC 3284 -0.2%
$TWII 15925 +1.6%
$HSI 19529 -2.25%
$KOSPI 2495 +0.6%
$IDX 6672 -0.05%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7199 -0.5%
India ↘️
$BSE 61393 -0.85%
Europe treading water ↔️
$DAX 15953 +0.35%
$FTSE 7749 -0.05%
$CAC 7397 -0.1%
$AEX 756 -0.05%
$IBEX 9183 -0.05%
$MIB 27130 -0.25%
$SMI 11488 -0.3%
$MOEX 2626 -0.3%
$VSTOXX 16.90
$DAX 15953 +0.35%
$FTSE 7749 -0.05%
$CAC 7397 -0.1%
$AEX 756 -0.05%
$IBEX 9183 -0.05%
$MIB 27130 -0.25%
$SMI 11488 -0.3%
$MOEX 2626 -0.3%
$VSTOXX 16.90
With the increased M&A activity in the #copper sector, I think it’s a good time to share how I think majors want to spend capital going forward and how this relates to copper juniors hoping to get bought out during the cycle.
$ASCU.TO $ATX.V $ALDE.V $ADZN.V $DNT.TO $FIL.TO
1/n
$ASCU.TO $ATX.V $ALDE.V $ADZN.V $DNT.TO $FIL.TO
1/n
$FDY.TO $HCH.V $LA.V $LBC.V $MARI.TO
$MUX $NGEX.V $OCO.V $QCCU.V $SURG.V $REG.V $SLS.TO $SOLG.TO $WRN.TO
Clearly, 1st priority is to buy existing production as we've seen with $BHP / $OZL, $RIO / Turquoise Hill and now $GLEN trying to buy $TECK. Buying producing assets
2/n
$MUX $NGEX.V $OCO.V $QCCU.V $SURG.V $REG.V $SLS.TO $SOLG.TO $WRN.TO
Clearly, 1st priority is to buy existing production as we've seen with $BHP / $OZL, $RIO / Turquoise Hill and now $GLEN trying to buy $TECK. Buying producing assets
2/n
provide buyers with instant cash flow. Building mines have probably never been harder and more expensive, hence it makes sense to buy/merge with other companies. However, there is a limited number of companies available to buy and buying existing production doesn't solve the
3/n
3/n
I've been following #copper for over 15 years at leading hedge funds including Citadel & Millennium.
Investors often underestimate the insights that copper prices provide as a barometer for the economy.
Here is what you need to pay attention to:
Investors often underestimate the insights that copper prices provide as a barometer for the economy.
Here is what you need to pay attention to:
Because of its use across many sectors, copper is seen as a leading indicator of economic health.
Copper prices are the fist to react to any economic uncertainty.
Copper prices are the fist to react to any economic uncertainty.
But copper also plays a major role in "electrification" providing it with a long term demand support.
• Over 65% of the world's copper is used in delivering electricity
• EVs use up to 4x more copper than ICEs
• Renewable power gen uses 4-5 times more copper than fossil fuel
• Over 65% of the world's copper is used in delivering electricity
• EVs use up to 4x more copper than ICEs
• Renewable power gen uses 4-5 times more copper than fossil fuel
I recently spent two weeks in #Zambia, mainly in Lusaka, meeting clients, conducting research, speaking to government officials. Here are some of my key takeaways 🧵🇿🇲
DEBT - this issue came up everywhere, and with good reason. Not only is it driving macroeconomic instability, but the government is nowhere near concluding a deal. And why? Because its largest creditor, #China, isn't happy with the terms laid out by the G20.
It's NB to note Chinese debt is both bilateral (i.e. issued by govt) and private (e.g., held by companies/individuals). Govts generally don't mind debt repayments being deferred, but private creditors are different - they usually want their money back sooner, even at a loss.
Time to talk about #gold. Gold does well during destabilizing deflations/depressions as real interest rates fall. It is a time tested (longest used currency) store of value (supply grows slowly due to mining activity). Gold is likely to burst to new all time highs as Fed panics.
One can physically own gold (always advised) or can own a fund that can be redeemed in gold (eg $PHYS ) or own precious metal streamers (eg $FNV) or own miners. Streamers are expensive now though and miners as a whole have a very bad LT return track record:
I currently preferred jr miners w/ a gold component because 1) the entire space is bombed out & dirt cheap, 2) super inefficient markets, 3) insane upside leverage if pick correctly, 4) company specific catalysts separate from gold bull market, 5) also get #copper bull.
I bought 5% of this company at 33c or higher for what it’s worth. Trading at 20c now making me look dumb. But massive #copper and #uranium prospects. Already significant uranium. Both assets have the potential to be massive. If the market don’t want to finance….
I plan to keep at it. The nature of both assets has me believing that funding exploration will result in 10x + returns with in 10 years. And it has the potential for 10x that. Tiny cap and the right address for both deposits.
If you like lottery tickets with very good relative odds this is the sort of play. In a hot market for either copper or uranium assets like these get $100mln caps. (Each vs tiny cap today)
Time for a thread on large scale #copper expl/dev companies.
There is no good way of comparing these simply, so let me start out the thread with size and EV/lb multiple and we go from there.
$ASCU.TO $ATX.V $OCO.V $SURG.V $FDY.TO $REG.V $HCH.V $DNT.TO $ALDE.V $SLS.TO
1/n
There is no good way of comparing these simply, so let me start out the thread with size and EV/lb multiple and we go from there.
$ASCU.TO $ATX.V $OCO.V $SURG.V $FDY.TO $REG.V $HCH.V $DNT.TO $ALDE.V $SLS.TO
1/n
$WRN.TO $NGEX.V $LA.V $MUX $SOLG.TO.
When listing the companies by EV/lb multiple it is easy to be fooled. Some look super cheap and present +5x return opportunities and some are "value traps".
How do we determine which companies present opportunities and which doesn't?
2/n
When listing the companies by EV/lb multiple it is easy to be fooled. Some look super cheap and present +5x return opportunities and some are "value traps".
How do we determine which companies present opportunities and which doesn't?
2/n
Look for:
1. Proven management teams with strong backing and good share structures.
2. Project quality and potential buyers.
3. Do majors think the asset can be developed?
4. Is the potential reward worth the risk?
5. Catalysts / events that will narrow the valuation gap.
3/n
1. Proven management teams with strong backing and good share structures.
2. Project quality and potential buyers.
3. Do majors think the asset can be developed?
4. Is the potential reward worth the risk?
5. Catalysts / events that will narrow the valuation gap.
3/n
🧵Compilation of 20+ viral #mining #exploration posts.
Please retweet to help other investors learn and make the industry better 💪
Please retweet to help other investors learn and make the industry better 💪
Which regions generate most discoveries?
🚨ADOTTA ANCHE TU UN CHAIR #FED🚨
🎉 Lo ammetto, sono esaltato da questo mese di Gennaio che mi ha regalato forti emozioni e ottimi profit 🤑
Ma stamattina ho sentito un certo rimorso verso quel povero chair della #FED.
Questo thread è per te, Jerome 💙 🧵
🎉 Lo ammetto, sono esaltato da questo mese di Gennaio che mi ha regalato forti emozioni e ottimi profit 🤑
Ma stamattina ho sentito un certo rimorso verso quel povero chair della #FED.
Questo thread è per te, Jerome 💙 🧵
1/6 Most of the new #discovery announcements and good first holes ends up as a minor discovery.
How to spot significant discoveries as an investor?
How to spot significant discoveries as an investor?
2/6 Three steps to follow🪜:
1) Study significant discoveries
2) Study the failed discoveries
2) Learn the essentials of geology
Let's dig in.
1) Study significant discoveries
2) Study the failed discoveries
2) Learn the essentials of geology
Let's dig in.
🧵1/n
Majors ideally want a large deposit, long mine life & safe jurisdiction
$DBG.V $DBLVF
✅IP target tonnage ~4 BILLION tons
✅Poly-metallic w/ 10 of 31 critical #metals
✅Safe location 🇨🇦
✅Long mine life potential
#copper #gold #cobalt #scandium #commodities #mining #stocks
Majors ideally want a large deposit, long mine life & safe jurisdiction
$DBG.V $DBLVF
✅IP target tonnage ~4 BILLION tons
✅Poly-metallic w/ 10 of 31 critical #metals
✅Safe location 🇨🇦
✅Long mine life potential
#copper #gold #cobalt #scandium #commodities #mining #stocks
🧵2/n
DBG's copper & gold porphyry is polymetalic and is said contain 10 of Canada's 31 critical metals!
Final metallurgical tests are still pending.
DBG's copper & gold porphyry is polymetalic and is said contain 10 of Canada's 31 critical metals!
Final metallurgical tests are still pending.
LiCoO2, LFP, LTO, NMC, LMO y NCA son tipos de baterías de iones de #litio que se utilizan comúnmente en vehículos eléctricos #EVs. Cada uno de ellos tiene sus propias características y ventajas #invertir #mining 🧵👇
LiCoO2: Las baterías LiCoO2 utilizan un compuesto de cobre, hierro y cobalto como material catódico y tienen una alta densidad de energía. Sin embargo, también son relativamente sensibles a los cambios de temperatura y pueden ser menos duraderas que otras baterías.
LFP: Las baterías LFP utilizan un compuesto de hierro y fósforo como material catódico y tienen una baja densidad de energía. Sin embargo, son muy estables y resistentes a los cambios de temperatura y tienen una larga vida útil.
⚡China's Jan-Nov surplus (in USD terms) $802.04 billion
#Imports +2.0% y/y
#Exports +9.1% y/y
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#Imports +2.0% y/y
#Exports +9.1% y/y
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
⚡
China October trade balance(in USD term) $85.15bln; Est. $95.97bln, Prev. $84.75 bln;
#Imports -0.7% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports -0.3% y/y ; Est. +4.5%, Prev.+5.7%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
China October trade balance(in USD term) $85.15bln; Est. $95.97bln, Prev. $84.75 bln;
#Imports -0.7% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports -0.3% y/y ; Est. +4.5%, Prev.+5.7%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#China October Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +586.81 bln yuan; Prev.+573.57 bln yuan;
Imports +6.8% y/y, Est.+10.0%, Prev.+5.2%.
Exports +7.0% y/y, Est.+12.7%, Prev.+10.7%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
Trade balance +586.81 bln yuan; Prev.+573.57 bln yuan;
Imports +6.8% y/y, Est.+10.0%, Prev.+5.2%.
Exports +7.0% y/y, Est.+12.7%, Prev.+10.7%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
👉#Copper shot up 7.57% on 4th November 2022.
Do you know❔
👉When was the last time we saw such a wild move in copper❔
It was
🔸on 6th Feb 2009
When copper shot up 8.57% in a single day.
🔸So what happened on 4th was "Move of the Decade"🧵
👉Like & Retweet if u like d work
Do you know❔
👉When was the last time we saw such a wild move in copper❔
It was
🔸on 6th Feb 2009
When copper shot up 8.57% in a single day.
🔸So what happened on 4th was "Move of the Decade"🧵
👉Like & Retweet if u like d work
But why did copper rose like there is no tomorrow ?
- On optimism that there might be relaxation in China’s Covid policies
- A steep decline in the dollar
- Historical low inventory of copper
- On optimism that there might be relaxation in China’s Covid policies
- A steep decline in the dollar
- Historical low inventory of copper
Why is falling dollar good for copper ?
- A slumping dollar boosts purchasing power for commodities consumer countries like China.
- Yuan appreciated the most against USD since 2005.
- A slumping dollar boosts purchasing power for commodities consumer countries like China.
- Yuan appreciated the most against USD since 2005.
1/
RAW MATERIAL SHORTAGES WILL ELIMINATE TESLA'S COMPETITION
The tight supply of raw materials will be the main bottleneck to Tesla's 50%/yr vehicle growth target this decade. It is NOT a good thing $TSLA feels the need to get into mining. Rather, it is a huge warning sign...
RAW MATERIAL SHORTAGES WILL ELIMINATE TESLA'S COMPETITION
The tight supply of raw materials will be the main bottleneck to Tesla's 50%/yr vehicle growth target this decade. It is NOT a good thing $TSLA feels the need to get into mining. Rather, it is a huge warning sign...
2/
that there won't be enough raw materials for most OEMs that have multi-million vehicle/yr growth ambitions. That means the battery input costs will get bid up until OEMs either begin dropping out of the EV race OR the supply of these raw materials increases significantly.
that there won't be enough raw materials for most OEMs that have multi-million vehicle/yr growth ambitions. That means the battery input costs will get bid up until OEMs either begin dropping out of the EV race OR the supply of these raw materials increases significantly.
I've been saying this before and I'll say it again, #Bitcoin is trading as a digital commodity 💯
The rules are simple...
If you are bearish on #BTC you are bearish on #Copper. If you see new ATHs for COPPER you are seeing new ATHs for BTC as well 🫡
1/4
The rules are simple...
If you are bearish on #BTC you are bearish on #Copper. If you see new ATHs for COPPER you are seeing new ATHs for BTC as well 🫡
1/4
#Bitcoin is here to stay, whether you like it or not.
The big difference between the two is the volatility of a new asset. Where one does 100% the other does 1000%. The same goes for HTF pullbacks.
The big difference between the two is the volatility of a new asset. Where one does 100% the other does 1000%. The same goes for HTF pullbacks.
The math is then pretty simple.
We live in a world of unlimited credit/fiat money, where governments/CBs, even if they don't want to, will be forced to "print digitally"
But we also live in a world of limited scarce assets.
Infinite credit will be chasing finite assets.
We live in a world of unlimited credit/fiat money, where governments/CBs, even if they don't want to, will be forced to "print digitally"
But we also live in a world of limited scarce assets.
Infinite credit will be chasing finite assets.
China September trade balance(in USD term) $84.75bln; Est. $80.3 bln, Prev. $79.39 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports +5.7% y/y ; Est. +4.0%, Prev.+7.1%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports +5.7% y/y ; Est. +4.0%, Prev.+7.1%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#China September Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +573.57 bln yuan; Est.+564.30 bln yuan, Prev.+535.91 bln yuan;
Imports +5.2% y/y, Est.+8.4%, Prev.+4.6%.
Exports +10.7% y/y, Est.+11.3%, Prev.+11.8%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
Trade balance +573.57 bln yuan; Est.+564.30 bln yuan, Prev.+535.91 bln yuan;
Imports +5.2% y/y, Est.+8.4%, Prev.+4.6%.
Exports +10.7% y/y, Est.+11.3%, Prev.+11.8%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
CHINA JAN.-SEPT. IMPORTS RISE 4.1% Y/Y, EXPORTS +12.5%.
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
1/x🧵
Most of remaining global #copper "yet to find" resources are estimated to be in sedimentary copper deposits.
Major sedimentary copper deposits occur on 170km lithosphere thickness boundary🌎👀
Nature likes order 📏
Why does it happen?
How can you use it as an investor?
Most of remaining global #copper "yet to find" resources are estimated to be in sedimentary copper deposits.
Major sedimentary copper deposits occur on 170km lithosphere thickness boundary🌎👀
Nature likes order 📏
Why does it happen?
How can you use it as an investor?
2/x
Below paper summarised for non geos 👇
I read it so you do not have to.
Below paper summarised for non geos 👇
I read it so you do not have to.
3/x Before we dive in, you need to know what is "lithosphere" .
Part of crust and upper mantle - the harder outer shell of planet earth.
Thickness can vary from few kms to 400km depending on the place on earth.
Part of crust and upper mantle - the harder outer shell of planet earth.
Thickness can vary from few kms to 400km depending on the place on earth.
1/20 South American Copper 🧵1: Traditional stomping grounds of Chile and Peru appear increasingly difficult jurisdictions for big copper mines. Grades are declining and the PolRisk arising from fiscal uncertainty in both Chile and Peru are problematic. #mintwit #copper #PolRisk
2/20 I don't think searching for copper equity opportunities in the region makes sense at the current prices we see. You might be paying up for quality in a few cases ($FIL comes to mind) but I expect the next few years to be difficult ones for Chile and Peru.
3/20 PolRisk situation makes starting a project (brown or green field) hard and the projects that exist are too big for juniors on their own,, that mix creates limited equity opportunities. The following are some points to support that assertion.
Copper industry may deliver 1.5 million tons from greenfield capacity in the period 2025-30, with +50% of the potential identified supply likely to hit the market after 2030. This is not on time for a green transition.
We think there is greenfield copper projects with more than 285 million tons of resources, with the ability to produce more than 6 million tons a year in some stage of development. Bloomberg and GS research supports similar type numbers.
About 30% of projects are either being ramped up or are in the late stages of construction, and could deliver 1.9 million tons of copper annually by 2025. Beyond 2025 S/D balance probably requires ~500,000 tons of new capacity each year, by our calculations.
#DRC, "Solution Country" to the climate crisis ? My colleague @jm_senga and I recently traveled for @amnesty to the South-East of the #DRC, where industrial mining of #cobalt threatens the survival of entire communities. 👇🏽THREAD 1/11
As @Precop27RDC comes to an end in Kinshasa and ahead of #COP27, Congolese and international policymakers must stop turning a blind eye to the fate of people at the frontline of industrial mining of strategic minerals… 2/11
