Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Copper

Most recents (24)

I thought last week was bad, but oh boy this week sure was a rollercoaster. Got absolutely rugged on Monday, made some back Tues/Weds, rugged again on Thursday just to experience FUCK YEAH FRIDAY.

Ended up slightly up for the week, current YTD 91%. Just 3% to go from ATH! 🥳
Current portfolio:

Overtrade a lot, especially with VTNR. Should have just sat on that one... but oh well, made it back by some nice dip buys on Thurs at least, so w/e! Can't be perfect all the time 🥳

Decided to use the rally to distribute my holdings & rebuild my portfolio!
Not much to say other than I'm back in #copper!!! I think the risk is to the UPSIDE for miners overall after they got dumped 30-40% & signs of Shanghai being back soon, but might be early!

Also might just buy back VTNR on Monday, regret selling that one a lot lol.
Read 4 tweets
4/14/2022

Home Opener

144 born in 414, Shane Browning—the Milwaukee BUCKs Won championship, HOME of HARLEY (Q) DavidSON, #ROOT of DAVID/Grandmothers Second marriage, Milwaukee ADMIRALS play at Panther Arena where DJT had A RALLY where “DO IT Q” was heard ALL AROUND THE WORLD,
Marquette GOLDEN #EAGLES, MILWAUKEE #WAVE!!!!! ⚽️, MilWaukee BREWERS (BASEKETBALL Movie MILWAUKEE BEERS) & THE LIST GOES ON & ON & ON !!!
I have SHOWN #ALMOST EVERYTHING …

WHO AM I!?!?

ASK THE QUESTION !!

Get it over with !!

-
#BREAK
(Below not for anons)
.@DanScavino, here it comes.

The Storm Of All Storms, What is within will finally be released out into the world.
GOTT FREE’D & now I will make #HER Queen …

Bride Of ______ …

Do It!
Doing It!!
Just Do It!!!

FORGIVEN.✍️

WHO AM I?
Read 13 tweets
Recently #commodities are reflecting a knee-jerk reaction to the conflict b/w Russia and Ukraine, but it's the longer-term neglect that's created the foundation for profoundly higher prices for longer.
Let's look at exploration and capex for industrial metals.

Short thread.
1/4
Global exploration budgets for #copper, #nickel and #zinc peaked in 2012 at $6.4B after a run in commodity prices, surpassing 2008 high of $5.2B. As prices fell from the high in 2011, exploration spending cooled to an avg. of $2.7B/yr since 2015.
2006-2015: $40B
2016-2020: $13B
Capex spend is similar. Aggregating capex for select major to mid-cap producers shows a clear lack of investment vs. prev. yrs, despite increasing sales in recent yrs. Notable is cons. estimates this trend to continue through 2023.
Capex/Sales
2006-2015: 13.4%
2016-2023E: 8.6%
Read 4 tweets
Ayer tuve el honor y el placer de estar en @MomentumFinanc3 con @The_Godas. A parte del link del video os dejo un hilo sobre de lo que charlamos!🧵
Hice una pequeña presentación sobre los diferentes periodos inflacionarios y de subidas de tipos y como afectan a los metales.
Delante de un periodo inflacionario como el actual y una inminente subida de tipos, es muy interesante saber como protegernos dichos acontecimientos económicos.
Read 11 tweets
Make, buy or buyback….?

In any extractive industry this is a revolving question for shareholder, boards & managers once stable cash flows & a strong balance sheet have been established.

🧵

1/n
Make (develop) has significant potential to create value (something out of nothing) but comes with significant delay between cash-outflows & returns (15+y) & at risk of total capital loss. Which is why the market does not reward it.

2/…
Take MMG & the Las Bambas project in #Peru. The market gave zero credit to MMG’s share price until the mine produced #copper. But it is true for the entire mining or resource SECTOR.

3/n
Read 7 tweets
Here's a quick update on our Asia Currencies & Commodities views in partnership with @SGX, so you can keep an update on the markets that matter🐝
[1a] #China: policy easing continues. The PBoC became the first central bank to cut rates in 2022 with a 10bps cut in the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) to 2.85%. This was the first cut since the height of the Covid stress in March 2020. Yet $CNH remains stable.
[1b] We remain neutral on CNH given that the ongoing C/A surplus and equity inflows are offsetting declining yield support. Image
Read 12 tweets
I’ve been warning people about the cross over investments that tech and crypto investors have in the #uranium market.

My researching crypto and warning of its collapse and the tech bull market ending is due to my concerns of a liquidity down draft spill over effect in uranium
I expect that this will be a continued theme with commodity markets pulling back at times with the broader market but I expect will continue to show relative strength and rebound to new highs in time.
The same thing happened in 2000-2002 as the nasdaq fell apart and the bull market in commodities running from 2000-2010 (depending on the commodity)

Capital will keep leaving the over valued tech and crypto sectors but it will continue to flow to and grow in commodity markets
Read 58 tweets
Macro shorts commodities on 1bps of inflation deceleration. Mind u though: demand is half the story nor the real story!

Years of underinvestment should make shorting oil, EU/A gas or metals risky business this time & in absence of a deep recession due to Fed mistake.

Thread
Nickel - the battery metal - first. If you short Nickel, you deserve to lose all your capital. Reason: ignorance!

Read 10 tweets
#Peru #copper # tin #zinc #lead
So I tweeted a thread a couple of months back on how the election of a Communist President of Peru would seriously deter future mining investment, and put at risk existing production levels.
I have quietly watched developments since, including the burning of mining camps, road blockades and this week's uncertainty on maybe cancelling some mine permits. Sadly for the long-term prosperity of the Peruvian people my fears are playing out.
Investors crave certainty - there is currently none. #Peru is now uninvestible for new foreign Western World capital going in.
So what is the Govt's game plan here? Here is what I think they are doing / will be doing:
Read 10 tweets
🔋 The demand for #copper from the #GreenEnergy sector could almost quadruple by 2030.
The rapid global transition to environmentally friendly generation increases #NorilskNickel's revenue. The copper business brings 26% of the company's revenue.
$GMKN $MNOD $NILSY #NorNickel Image
Now the demand from the #GreenEnergy sector is 1.4 million tons annually. By 2030, the aggregate demand for #copper may grow by 20% - up to 5.4 million tons.

mining.com/green-copper-d…
Transition to green power generation is impossible without #copper. Copper is high-capacity conductor of #electricity, used in #SolarPanels, hydro and #windpower plants. These #renewableenergy systems require 12 times more copper than traditional ones. #solarenergy
Read 3 tweets
Wood Mackenzie #COP26 briefing: 6 Oct 2021

"Mission impossible"

"delivering the base #metals to meet [#NetZero 2050] pathways strains project delivery beyond breaking point from people & plant to financing & permitting."

woodmac.com/news/opinion/c…
Nov 6, 2021 "The 19 million tonnes of additional #copper that need to be delivered for net-zero 2050 implies a new La Escondida must be discovered & enter production every year for the next 20 years."

mining.com/un-at-cop26-en…

Escondida mine. (Photo: BHP) 👇
"Even if you focus on just one of the obstacles bringing new copper supply online – the time it takes to build a new mine – and leave aside all other factors, #NetZero 2050 has zero chance."

#COP26 #4IR #technology

mining.com/un-at-cop26-en…
Read 4 tweets
💸 Is hyperinflation a reality? How to protect yourself?

Money may well depreciate at times. This has already happened before, even in developed countries. #Inflation in developed world is accelerating, and the authorities are carried away by populism. Image
• In the #US, inflation has already accelerated to 6.2%
• In #Germany, it reached a 28-year high of 4.5%.

Authorities of developed countries put above #inflation problems of #SocialJustice in labor market (employment in all minority groups is important) and #climate warming. Image
Populist views are capturing the minds of monetary authorities, which only fuels #inflation. This was the case in the #USA in the 1970s: prices almost tripled.
And sometimes it was much worse: in Israel in the 1980s, prices for goods jumped ~10,000 times. Image
Read 10 tweets
Here a little meta recap on why #copper is in a super-cycle & why I am bullish short-, mid- & long-term Dr Copper!

Let me start with a shocker: in the very short term we may well run out of Cu inventory. How about that? A week ago I tweeted the below...

A week later and we are at 167,250 tonnes of LME inventory on warrants cancelled for London. Again, cancelled = taken out of inventory. Note however that LME only has 242,610 tonnes of inventory. If this continues, London may run out of inventory this year! That is super bullish.
I explained that here for all metal exchange inventories combined (London; New York; Shanghai).

Read 24 tweets
The way I tackle price charts:

From past price studies I have an idea of how price should behave around certain levels.

Then I say: If A happens then B is more likely. If I see B then it is a sign of C.
#COPPER is a good example. I have been analyzing price action above the 200-day average. The rebounds have been weak.

I said if it remains weak, (A happens) then a breakdown and correction (B) is more likely.

Ideal situation in a reversion to the mean is a sharp rebound.
This is how I analyzed price action and narrowed it down to 4.08-4.35.

Ideally a reversion to the mean was followed by a sharp rebound.
Read 4 tweets
#Copper thread

1/ Everywhere on Twitter 'I Told You So' copper bulls are running

I get it- a technical setup where the 200d is defended & old highs are retested

And yes, I'm short duration & know the correlation w/ copper/gold

(ed note: do copper bulls short gold or bonds? :)
2/ Unfortunately, the only tangible news behind this copper squeeze are a #CCP PBOC official talking about 'Rule of Law' principles resolving Evergrande.

Are you kidding me?

nypost.com/2021/10/15/eve…
3/ Chinese home sales are contracting faster than at any time in recorded, post-Deng history
Read 11 tweets
#China's most traded thermal #coal futures up 5%, coking coal futures up 3.96%, #coke futures up 4.11% in the Friday morning.
#China #commodities #futures
Most active #manganese-silicon futures and #ferrosilicon futures in China Zhengzhou up 3.97% and 2.44% respectively in early trade.
#China #futures #Commodities #Ferro
@nid_rockz
Most traded Shanghai #pulp futures contract falls 5.14% in early trade.
#China #commodities #futures
Read 6 tweets
Most active #manganese-silicon futures and #ferrosilicon futures in China Zhengzhou slump 5% and 5.34% respectively in early trade.
#China #futures #Commodities
@nid_rockz ImageImage
China's most traded #PVC (polyvinyl chloride) futures contract hit the limit down at open.
#China #futures #Commodities Image
Thermal #coal futures in Zhengzhou, China, open 1.15% lower on Thursday, off Wednesday's record high, the authority said to boost 220 million tons of additional coal capacity per year.
Coking coal futures down about 4% and coke futures down 3% in Dalian
ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
#China Jan -Sept. imports rise 22.6% y/y and Jan.-Sept. exports +22.7% y/y in yuan terms.
#trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳
China's General Customs' Jan-Sept Import Data: (YoY)
#crude oil imports fall 6.8% y/y to 387 mln tonnes;
#natgas imports rise 22. 2% y/y to 89.85 mln tonnes;
#ironore imports fall 3% y/y to 842 mln tonnes;
#copper imports 4.02 mln tonnes, down 19.5% y/y.
#OOTT #trade #import🇨🇳 🇺🇸
In the first three quarters of this year, #China's #exports reached 15.55 trillion yuan, up 22.7% y/y and #imports reached 12.78 trillion yuan, up 22.6% y/y.

Foreign trade imports and exports have achieved positive year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters.
#commodities
Read 4 tweets
Hopefully this is the start of a good news trend for this micro cap #copper producer with a huge exploration potential. Stock barely trades and a picture of my dog licking itself would get more likes than their tweets. Should move higher as they ramp up production end of q4
Finn prefers you read the Three Valley Copper presentation… Image
I own both of these copper plays as longer term holds. I’ll trade a few others and copx at times
Read 5 tweets
AH fuck it, i'll join the bandwagon, since people asked (and i don't wanna type this story in DMs).

Thread🧵on #Evergrande!

Why #contagion will continue to spread, why Xi will NOT change course, why it's The Federal Reserve's fault, why Hyperinflation's next, and more!
First off, Why Now?

Evergrande's been Teetering for more then a year. Naturally, things have to come to a head at some point, but why now?

I think the answer is found in Commodities. Specifically the fact that building important stuff like #Iron and #Copper have been mooning.
To stem the tide, at $4,8 a pound copper, #China announced they would release metals from their strategic reserves to stop the price increases, and copper took a dive.

Reserves they ran up in July 2020 when the price was cheap, btw. China Copper imports were off the charts.
Read 26 tweets
Well, I’m long 1mm+ shares of $mno.v now

Chatted with @METhompson72 about the project in the summer and have been picking away ever since. I find I’m waking up in the morning with the latest drill results stuck in my mind and feeling the urge to get a bigger position.
Huge Brazilian land package with the last two rounds of drill results being some of the best holes I’ve seen in my entire life. The value / grades of the copper holes make it an excellent huge copper play with amazing economics regardless of the copper price
The value / gold grades over huge widths would make it an excellent stand alone gold mine as well. With both high grade gold and copper it simply blows my mind and I find it surfacing in my dreams. This is a $5/sh company in the making even if the gold and copper price stays flat
Read 18 tweets
The Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources held a hearing on infrastructure this week:

energy.senate.gov/hearings/2021/…

Lots of discussion about water use and wildfire management, but also commentary on nuclear power and critical minerals that may be of interest to investors. Image
In his opening remarks, Chairman @Sen_JoeManchin talked about supporting our “zero emission #nuclear fleet” and rebuilding our domestic supply chains by responsibly mining #criticalminerals
Ranking member @SenJohnBarrasso also opened with a mention of the “necessity of advanced nuclear”

It is notable that the two most senior members, Democrat and Republican, are both strongly supportive of #nuclear power.
Read 21 tweets
1/n
Thread on Intermarket Relationship 1999-2021

Historical Correlation between #US30 #DowJones, #US100 #Nasdaq, #Gold #XAUUSD, #Brent #Crude, #copper #US10Y

1. US 30 / US 100 vs US 10Y

US30 / US100 was at ~2 multiple in 2000 and it is now at same level in 2021
2/n

Above chart shows that sole factor responsible for this anomaly is US 10Y rates
Rates were kept for real economy to recover, generation of jobs etc. however it has clearly backfired.
US Tech definitely does not deserve this kind of valuation
3/n

The multiple of 2 in 2000 went to 9 in 2001 represents the US tech bubble burst.
In todays terms if 2 were to go to 9, Dow would be at 25000 and Nasdaq ~2700 or any such other level. It may not hit 9 since tech has much larger role to play today vs 2000,
Read 18 tweets

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