Russia’s attack on Pavlivka could not have been worse timed. It is like they sat around and waited for the worst possible time to attack and only launched the attack then. I cannot even comprehend the thoughts going through the minds of those in command, or if they even had any.
Analyzing the situation in retrospect, because in real time I didn’t fully understand, it is clear Ukraine knew Russia would attack at least 7-10 days prior to the attack. And they were fully prepared. When Ukraine made those preparations, Russia should have aborted.
Rather than aborting, Russia sent all their men to their death. They’ve sustained crippling casualties and achieved nothing.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I think Russia’s strategy in Kherson is to fill every forest strip and town with a horde of mobilized cannon fodder, distribute anti tank weapons and call in as many air support missions as possible and beg Ukraine to move forward.
I don’t think they care how many men they lose with their strategy, whether it is thousands or tens of thousands. They view it as a net win because ukraine loses armored vehicles and those are irreplaceable. Russia will gladly trade hundreds of lives to kill a few tanks.
In my view, Ukraine’s counter here is pretty simple. Artillery and anti aircraft weapons. The two things they have the least of.
In Pavlivka, the initial reports were overly pessimistic for Ukraine. They were coming from people who were having, let’s say, an emotional day. In the evening and morning the situation stabilized and more accurate reports came out.
The Russian propagandists, having no need for fact checking, especially not when the news seems “good”, decided to pretend those initial reports were literal fact. And, even many hours after better information was available, decided to post those stories as current situation.
Having worked to moderate a large internet community before (over 500,000 daily users), I can tell you from a lot of experience just how stupid @elonmusk plan is.
The reality? To have effective moderation, you need large numbers of moderators. About one for every 50k users.
You should be paying around $3-4 per user, per year on moderators. If you aren’t good enough at running a business to make that profitable, then you aren’t good enough at running a business to own a social media company.
And, if you really want to know the truth, people flock to well moderated forums. People line up to give you money to be in a moderated forum. People hate the wild west. That’s just reality. Moderation should be the product. That’s how you make money in social media.
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna areas.
North of Svatove, east of Kupyansk, Ukraine is attacking Orlyanske (1), Kyslivka (2), and Kuzemivka (3). There is heavy fighting, particularly near Kuzemivka.
Stepnohirsk, south of Zaporizhzhia city, north of the front line town of Kamyansk. This is what Russia has to offer the people of Ukraine. Daily shelling. Plastic water bottles, bomb shelters, and craters.