UKRAINE RUSSIA WAR #PREDICTION
I think it's likelier than not that Kherson reverts to Ukraine by EOM January 2023. Not high conviction call but multiplicity of evidence now points to that.
Main focus will be on preserving the one Pyrrhic gain from the war, the Crimean Corridor.
I think it's likelier than not that Kherson reverts to Ukraine by EOM January 2023. Not high conviction call but multiplicity of evidence now points to that.
Main focus will be on preserving the one Pyrrhic gain from the war, the Crimean Corridor.
I adjust to reality.
Kherson only useful as springboard into Nikolaev and later Odessa. Spending ≤5% of GDP on military is insufficient to man or munition such offensives, while also plugging LNR and Zaporozhye. The Dnieper is much more defensible.
https://twitter.com/Xyoobb/status/1589403242114555906
Kherson only useful as springboard into Nikolaev and later Odessa. Spending ≤5% of GDP on military is insufficient to man or munition such offensives, while also plugging LNR and Zaporozhye. The Dnieper is much more defensible.
Reality is, Kherson is a smallish, poor provincial city and of the 8 Novorossiya provinces, the least pro-Russian from 2013/14 polls. In denying Ukraine manpower or industries, its loss is close to inconsequential. Main problem is that the dam may then go & Crimea goes dry again.
Canceling out one of the signature early accomplishments of the SVO.
https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1496875288394874884But fate of Crimean agriculture is fairly trivial, all things considered. Main problem of Kherson abandonment is political; only "real" city apart from Mariupol to be liberated, gone.
The only critical consideration, whether this remains a (very) Pyrrhic Russian victory or turns into some variant of defeat, will be determined by whether the new frontlines running along Dnieper, and in Zaporozhye and Donbass (perhaps even with Bakhmut) will prove sustainable. 
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