Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
About: https://t.co/DTxJo11vzk // Anarcho-lib 🏴🐍 // 💛 immortality, 🧠 IQ/acc, 🧬 bio/acc, 🧪 #DeSci
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Aug 3 8 tweets 2 min read
🇺🇸🇮🇱 I call Israel to join the US as the 51st state

(1) This would mostly solve Middle East geopolitics. The US extends its security umbrella to Israel (formalizing what we all know to be a de facto reality anyway) while constraining independent Israeli adventurism.Image
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(2) Huge human capital boost to the US as 3M Ashkenazi Jews get full immediate access to its labor markets. American tech lead further augmented as Israel's R&D sector which punches well above its weight integrates into its technocapital machine.
Mar 16 18 tweets 14 min read
🇷🇺 Russia Elections 2024 Thread

I'll be posting live coverage of interesting developments in the Russian elections here.

(Within a specific definition of "interesting", obviously said term doesn't apply to its outcome). Result from exit poll at Russian Embassy in Prague (via Max Kats):
* Davankov - 66.5%
* Putin - 4.1%
* Spoiled ballot: 24.8%

Obviously, Prague is not representative of Russia; extremely so. And obviously you'd need to be "bold" to say you voted for Putin in a country where public support for Z is literally criminal. Still, safe to say pocket liberal candidate Davankov sweeps the board in most of the West.

This would be a change from previous elections, in which Putin/United Russia polled competitively against the "liberal" placeholder in 2012, 2016, 2018, etc, winning in most places outside the Anglosphere.
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Russian Embassies abroad tallied the vote fairly in past elections. I wonder whether this will still be true this time round in light of the stupendous tilt against Putin that has unsurprisingly developed after the war. The differentials - 10% (?) for Putin in Western Europe and the US, 80% in Russia - would come off as a bit weird.akarlin.com/prokhorov-pres…
akarlin.com/russian-global…Image
Feb 17 6 tweets 2 min read
This is one of the best maps for groking why colonialism could work c.1900 and one of the reasons it became unsustainable later on, and why why Europe's prominence in particular declined relative to both the US & the Rest. Image France/Britain & US have ~equal population to Latam and Africa, respectively.

Why Turks once viewed Greeks as a real threat, difference when ratio is 1:1.7 vs. 1:6. akarlin.com/turkey-populat…
Feb 16 8 tweets 3 min read
NAVALNY DEATH

Initial thoughts:

(1) Almost certainly ordered or okayed by Putin. In retrospect, the theory that Navalny's disappearance in December was a trial balloon to gauge the public reaction - found to be encouragingly lackluster - to harsher measures has been vindicated.Meme h/t @devarbol (2) The usual amusing preoccupation with symbolic dates, exactly one month before the Presidential elections (to which Navalny represented ~zero threat).
Jan 14 7 tweets 3 min read
XI POPULARITY

New study suggests that Xi's approval rating might be inflated by ~25% percentage points.

When asked directly: 95%. (In line with many other surveys showing 90%+).

cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image But when tested as part of a list experiment, it plummets to 70%! Image
Dec 5, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
PISA 2022

Results released.

Table of the results summary including the changes (sharply negative in most of the high IQ world) from 2018.oecd.org/pisa/

Image Link to the report (which I haven't yet looked at it in any detail): oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/53f2…
Nov 19, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read
Let's be clear: Le funny memes aside, Milei is a fascist and populist who opposes abortion rights (including for rape) and sex education in schools, promotes COVID conspiracies & anti-vaxxerism, and wants to dismantle Argentine public science institutions. english.elpais.com/international/…

Image Far Right populism has been in retreat in the advanced Western countries after peaking in the 2010s. But the debased memes it created will continue to afflict the poorer and intellectually marginal areas of the world, with their weaker memetic nervous systems, for years to come.
Nov 9, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
Zoophilia Question

IMO with animal language interpretability mere years away thanks to AI there's no rush to normalize zoophilia just yet.

However, it's a conversation we should be stating to have now.scientificamerican.com/article/how-sc…

I'm mostly opposed because of consent issues and I don't think the quoted article does a convincing job of arguing otherwise. However, if complex animals such as dolphins who are known for friskiness can be proven to consent through AI, I don't see what the moral case against is.
Oct 30, 2023 28 tweets 14 min read
AMSTERDAM - NETWORK STATES 2023

This thread will be for ongoing coverage of the Network States conference.

I'll be there and in Amsterdam until Nov 1.

Amsterdam 2022 Incidentally, it's quite appropriate IMO that the first network states conference is being hosted in the city that also saw the world's first joint stock company, stock exchange - and one of the first financial bubbles.

Which category will it fall under?
Aug 26, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
DISCORD BAN

Punished frens reply here and we'll coordinate on something. Seems to have been a massive and indiscriminate Discord wide purge of pro-RU servers (amusingly the pro-UA posters also got banned).

I'm appealing but chances of success are low.

Also, crypto solves this.
Does look like an mass ban of hundreds if not thousands of accounts, many of whom were not even necessarily active.

I consider this wanton data theft.

@discord @discord_support you should either thoroughly explain precisely how TOS/CG were broken or reverse this ASAP.
Aug 22, 2023 5 tweets 3 min read
SKYRIM POLITICS

In Skyrim, liberals and centrists support the Empire, conservatives and libertarians support the Stormcloaks. h/t @sebjenseb


47% support the Empire and 37% support the Stormcloaks.cosgrrrl.com/skyrim-civil-w… As expected, pro-Imperials dislike Stormcloak racism and consider them dupes of the Thalmor, while Stormcloak nationalists view it as an anti-imperialist liberation struggle.
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Aug 9, 2023 14 tweets 5 min read
Blast from the Past: RUSSIAN SPECTRUM

Doing overdue maintenance on my archives, I came across my files pitching the idea of a "reverse Inosmi" to translate Russian journalism into English in 2012-13. I already had a working product, but needed money if it was to be sustainable. The idea was based on Inosmi, a RIA project to translate foreign journalism into Russian. Back then, much of Western journalism could be credibly seen as hyperbolically anti-Russian, so translating Lucas, Harding, Ioffe, etc., ironically worked to drum up patriotic sentiment. Image
Aug 9, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
The Roko Trilemma is correct IMO.

Capitalism under agentic AI with ~zero costs of reproduction => race to the bottom, aka neo-Malthusian hellworld in which biological lifeforms can't even tread water, let alone flourish.

Luxury Gay (not Space) Communism is programmed. ☭☭☭ Economic calculation problem isn't going away, but the surpluses generated even by heavily leashed AI are going to be so gargantuan it will be paradise anyway - contingent on there being cardinal controls on runaway replication.
Aug 7, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Most sincerely open, pro-free speech communities I know:

* Transhumanists (more so than rats/EA)
* Crypto (esp. ETH community, CT, & general cryptography enjoyoors)

Professional anti-Wokes are the mirror image of their professed enemies, but with extra side dish of hypocrisy. * Transhumanism characterized by extreme self-selection for openness and IQ, like the only place where one can discuss things like heritability of IQ with self-ID'ed Communists.
* Many great pypo in EA but has significant SJW cancelation campaigns: Roko, Hanson (!), Singer (!!!).
Jul 25, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
I think not enough attention is paid to the fact that Strelkov was finally locked up a couple of days after he poasted his well-known opinions about Putin's statesmanship in the context of "the next six years" aka 2024-2030, which was a novelty. t.me/strelkovii/6110 Artificial nature of the charges (advocacy on behalf of DNR mobiks about salary non-payments a year ago) suggest it was drawn up on short notice. Putin just doesn't want the KRP active against a backdrop of frontline uncertainty, which is not unreasonable from his perspective.
Jul 13, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
One funny thought that just came to mind is just how Americans played a key role in building the early Soviet industrial base (Bolsheviks having killed or exiled many of the local qualified cadres), they also contributed prodigally to ideological underpinnings of late Putinism. E.g., the role of American Christian fundie organizations such as the WFC in normalizing homophobia (Russia in 2000s not having been more anti-gay than Poland or Utah in attitudes) will be an interesting topic for future historical research. https://t.co/U3wtxxl58Stheins.ru/obshestvo/2582…
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Jul 12, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
UKRAINE WAR: POPOV DISMISSAL

Maj Gen Ivan Popov, head of 58CAA defending western Zaporozhye, dismissed after complaining of lack of rotations & weak counter-battery fire to Gerasimov. (Note: Both of these are well known and widely considered to be primary problems for Russia). https://t.co/6tniN4R3ihtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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After his complaints were dismissed, Popov - who has a rare reputation for competence - said he'd report personally to VVP. Gerasimov took it as a challenge to his authority and fired him on the spot for "panic-mongering" and "blackmail."
Jul 4, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
AMERICA

There's nothing paradoxical about this. Russia's war was in a major sense an attempt to become an America by (re)acquiring the USA/USSR-level economies of scale needed for viability as a sovereign civilization, in the more sophisticated Russian nationalist apologetics. https://t.co/wmA3jSG0s0
But even for kremlins the main motivation was to cosplay American imperial adventures (with <10% of the economic base) and to earn "respect" from Americans, which flubbed due to their own incompetence, but which itself can be ultimately traced back to Russia not being America.
Jun 30, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
The bet you're making with crypto is continuing digitization with crypto its most rigorous framework for property rights.

This was before AI.

A world that's increasingly dominated by intelligent digital agents is hyper-bullish for credibly neutral decentralized trust layers. I have been making this point since the start of this year. But it bears repeating.

I think the train is leaving soon, no late check-ins.

"It's about to become very painful to have nothing at all in the market." - @Roko__eth
Jun 29, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
UKRAINE WAR: CASUALTIES UPDATE

63% of Ukrainians now say they know at least one "close relative or friend" who died in the war, the average number being three. As before, the deaths are more concentrated as you go west: 60% in the West, 52% in the East. https://t.co/Je0cCNHNbo https://t.co/OOCDU2MGKXkiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This would appear to actually be very bad news for Ukraine, since in the last such survey in February, "only" 17% reported losing a close one (and 9% six months before that).
Jun 28, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
POST-WAGNER REBELLION UPDATE

US spooks want to provoke a paranoiac to go after his few competent generals. nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/… Curious if it really will be this easy. According to Rybar, Surovikin is under possible arrest and and cases being prepared against border guards, airmen who refused to attack the Wagner column. https://t.co/n6QeMVLORht.me/rybar/49112
t.me/rybar/49102