More about GOP pollsters gaming the polling averages. They want Democrats to think the election is a lost cause and stay home. Don’t let it work. #VoteBlueIn2022
I’m making the full article available as a subscriber’s gift so that anyone who wants to read it can. nytimes.com/2022/11/05/ups…
“This simple poll average is like many others you might have seen over the years. It weights the most recent polls more heavily.
“It gives more weight to pollsters that belong to a professional polling organization (they tend to be far less biased over the longer term).
"It doesn’t contain some of the fancier bells & whistles, like an adjustment for whether a poll tends to lean toward Republicans or Democrats.
“But in one important respect, this average is very different from polling averages you’ve seen in prior years: The pollsters making up the average are very different.
“Many stalwarts of political polling over the last decade — Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, New York Times/Siena College, Marist College —
“have conducted far fewer surveys, especially in the battleground states, than they have in recent years. In some cases, these pollsters have conducted no recent polls at all.
“And on the flip side, there has been a wave of polls by firms like the Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, Insider Advantage and others that have tended to produce much more Republican-friendly results than the traditional pollsters.
“None adhere to industry standards for transparency or data collection. In some states, nearly all of the recent polls were conducted by Republican-leaning firms.
“This creates a big challenge for a simple polling average like this one.
“From state to state, Democrats or Republicans might seem to be doing much better or much worse, simply depending on which kind of pollster has conducted a survey most recently. The race may seem to swing back and forth, from week to week.”
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