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Nov 7 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Happy Monday all!

Been a good few days, Ds closing strong:
- Ds big early vote lead keeps growing
- Ralston calls NV for Cortez Masto
- Last 6 non-partisan natl tracks have Ds up 1.5 pts
- Ds favored to keep Senate in non-partisan polls
- red wave may come, not here yet 1/
We finally get a long overdue story at what may end up being one of the most important stories of the election - how ongoing attacks on integrity of election system may be causing Rs to stay home.

Early vote is dangerously off for Rs across US. 2/

The early vote (via TargetEarly) w/2 days of voting to go:

- turnout up 8-10% from 2018
- Ds lead 50-39, have 4.3m vote "firewall" (lead)
- At this point in 2018 Ds led 46-45 (+1), in 2020 48-41 (+7)
- Final vote only 2-4 pts different from EV in 18/20. Yikes for Rs. 3/
Media got closing intensity story badly wrong.

As @tbonier has noted, Ds checked all the intensity boxes these last few months:
- overperformance in House specials/Kansas
- voter reg spike
- candidates way outraised Rs
- Ds crushing it in early vote 4/

@tbonier Last night Ralston called Nevada due to big Dem early vote lead, the "firewall." Media should be doing same across US.

Here are the states where growth of D vote share compared to 2020 is greater than NV: AZ, GA, IA, IN, MI, NC, NY, OH, NY, PA, TX, VA, WA, WI. 5/
Data peeps should be crunching what it's going to take for Rs to overcome these unprecedented, enormous Dem early vote leads across US.

In the last 2 elections final vote was only 2-4 pts different from EV. Ds are up 11 now, and Rs have been underperforming for months. 6/
Could Ds outperform expectations as early vote suggests?

Last 6 non-partisan 538 tracks have Ds up 1.5 pts:

NBC News 48-47
ABC/WaPo 48-50
Reut/Ipsos 37-36
Econ/YouG 49-49
Politico/MC 47-42
Yahoo/YG 46-44 7/

If you pull out the non-partisan tracks from the Senate averages Dems have been performing far better than current narrative. Here's Georgia:

Non-partisan polls - Warnock up 3.2 pts
Bullshit GOP polls - Walker up 4.4 pts 8/

Who would you rather be 1 day out? Party which has

- checked all intensity boxes
- crushed it in the early vote
- 11 pt national lead, 5m vote "firewall"
- leads, strong EV in battlegrounds across US
- not lost control to extremists

1 day out I'd rather be us than them. 8/
Below are a few ways to go deeper into this data and analysis.

Friends this thing is close. We have a shot. Our work together has gotten us this far. Don't let up! 11/

What could be causing this ongoing R underperformance?

Far too little attention was given this cycle to the 20% of Rs who are not MAGA. Where do they go? Do they vote for the extremists, stay home, vote D?

Whole election could come down to this. 12/

And an important reminder from arguably the most influential political journalist in America today, @RonBrownstein - ignore RCP. It's GOP junk food. 13/

Like with their efforts to game the polling averages Rs would only be doing this if they thought they were losing.

It’s an admission they are not sure the red wave is coming. And based on the early vote they are right to be worried. 14/

washingtonpost.com/elections/2022…

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 9
What we are seeing so far is a close, competitive election.
Look at this. Polling error in favor of....checks notes....Republicans.

As I've been writing for months now, the red wave may come but it is not here yet.

And it's 10pm ET on Election Day.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 8
While we wait for the returns, sharing a few things to dive into and chew on in coming weeks.

First, my big presentation "With Democrats Things Get Better." Probably the most important thing I've ever produced. Hope you will watch, offer feedback. 1/

ndn.org/WithDemocrats
After the election Dems need to have a serious conversation about how we better compete in an evolving information space being dominated by right wing voices.

I offer some initial thoughts here. We need to get louder. This is a very big project. 2/

ndn.org/democrats-and-…
In this new @playbookdc interview with @RyanLizza, I offer some early thoughts about what a post-social media (post Twitter/FB etc) may look like, and the urgency for the West's center-left to create more positive sentiment in our political discourse. 3/

Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 8
Election Day morning!

Latest early vote data fr TargetEarly:
- Turnout is 42m, up 8% over 18
- Ds up 50-39 (+11), 4.7m natl vote lead
- In 18 at this point 47-45 (+2), in 20 48-41 (+7)
- D state "firewalls" grew across US this weekend
- Electorate keeps getting younger 1/ Image
Since Dobbs it's been Ds checking what @tbonier calls the intensity boxes:

- strong vote in 5 House specials/Kansas
- spiked voter reg
- superior candidates fundraising
- huge early vote

But today all of a sudden Rs outhustle the Ds?

We'll see. 2/

Think media blew the abortion/intensity story.

Since Dobbs been Ds consistently fired up, Rs struggling. Look at this headline from a new WaPo story:

"Some in the party worry their assaults on early voting could ultimately suppress GOP turnout" 3/

Read 12 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 8
Friends, thank you. It's been so amazing to be in this fight with all of you these last few months. By keeping it this close we've already defied history.

I continue to be inspired and lifted up every day by your passion, grit and love of country. 1/
I want to reflect for a bit on what I've learned and seen these last few months.

I've been in this for a long time, and the core of my work has been to make sure we understood what was coming so we could evolve our thinking, govern well and win. 2/
As an old War Room guy I've become really fascinated by and impressed w/all the organic, bottom up organizations which have sprung up in recent years to drive our politics forward. Podcasts, postcard writing networks, swing left/indivisible - the list is longer than we know. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 8
My last pre-election thread! Feel good, am optimistic.
- Dems have built early vote "firewalls" across US
- Last wave of natl tracks very positive for Ds
- Red wave may be coming but not here yet
- Been an honor to fight alongside all of you! 1/

ndn.org/would-rather-b…
Latest TargetEarly update shows Ds lead holding, our early vote margins continuing to grow:
- Turnout has been running 5-8% above 2018
- Ds lead 50-39, have 4.4m natl vote "firewall"
- In 18 at this point was 47-45 (+2), in 20 48-41 (+7)
- Electorate getting younger, more Dem 3/ Image
Last night, based on the strength of the D early vote, Jon Ralston called Nevada for Senator Cortez Masto.

Here are the states where Ds are running better than NV relative to 2020: AZ, GA, MI, MN, IN, IA, NC, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TX, VA, WA, WI.

This is a big problem for Rs. 4/
Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 7
Last few days been super shitty for red wave narrative:

- Ralston, NV below
- Dems crushing it in early vote
- last 6 non-partisan generic tracks have Ds up 1.5 pts
- Non-partisan Senate polls show Ds likely to hold
- R flooding the zone w/polls sign of desperation
More here on
- Dems defying gravity in a close, toss up election
- Dems crushing it in early vote
- Red wave may be coming but not here yet
And this important reminder from arguably America’s most respected political journalist:
Read 5 tweets

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