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Open Nuclear Network

Nov 7 • 8 tweets • 4 min read

DPRK State media reported on Monday on the country’s missile launch campaign from 2 to 5 Nov 2022. ONN has compiled the following information regarding the launches based on information provided by Japan, the ROK and the DPRK.

As can be seen from the table above, there are some discrepancies in the information provided by the 3 different countries. The ROK claimed the DPRK’s report on the “strategic cruise missile” launches to be false.
t.ly/VgaX
t.ly/Q4Uo

@rockfish31

A comparison of the launch photos also proves that the DPRK re-used an old photo (first published in April 2022) in its report covering its Nov launch campaign. (as first noticed by @rockfish31) Such practices reduce the credibility of the DPRK’s announcement.

Similarly, in a 13 Oct 2022 report, the DPRK may have used an old photo (taken in Sept 2021) to disguise the cruise missile launch happened on 12 Oct 2022. The DPRK also allegedly disguised the launch of a Hwasong-15 ICBM as that of a Hwasong-17.
t.ly/K0NX

The DPRK described its allegedly failed ICBM launched on 3 Nov as a "ballistic missile" to paralyze enemy operation command systems. The ROK previously assessed the 3 Nov ICBM to be a Hwasong-17.
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202210…

According to the image released by the DPRK on Monday, the missile appears to be a shortened and modified Hwasong-15 ICBM. However, there are too few data points to determine if the newly-released image is genuine.

In general, multiple factors could be behind the discrepancies observed above, such as:
- Japan does not report on missiles that fly towards the West Sea.
- ROK and Japanese sensors have different readings
- Different publishing strategies
- Deliberate disinformation

As of now, there are still many uncertainties regarding the 2 to 5 November 2022 launch campaign. #ONN will continue its analysis upon receipt of further information.

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More from @OpenNuclear

Open Nuclear Network

@OpenNuclear

Mar 24

1. On 24 Mar 2022, the #DPRK conducted an apparently successful test of an international ballistic missile (#ICBM). This was the first such test since Nov 2017 and marked the official end to the DPRK ICBM and nuclear test moratorium.

2. According to 🇺🇸JCS and 🇯🇵MoD, the ICBM was launched at ~2:33 pm local time. It followed a highly lofted trajectory, with an apogee of >6200 km before splashing down ~150 km west of 🇯🇵Toshima Peninsula, 1080 km from its launch site at 🇰🇵Sunan airfield. The flight took ~71 min.

3. Considering that the apogee is significantly higher than previous tests, the 24 Mar test probably involves the new ICBM that made its debut during a military parade on 10 Oct 2020. The name of this new system is possibly Hwasong-17.

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Open Nuclear Network

@OpenNuclear

Jan 5

1. DPRK just released an official image of the ballistic missile tested on 5 Jan (pic 1). It appears to be the new hypersonic weapon first revealed during the Oct 2021 weapon exhibition (marked as Missile B in pic 2). Full ONN report on the exhibition: bit.ly/3HBIM5l

2. Same as the Hwasong-12, the missile is carried by a MAZ-547 truck. However, the missile appears to be much shorter than the HS-12, as evidenced by the clips on the erection arms: they have been moved back to hold the shorter missile (see pic below)

3. In general, the new hypersonic missile seems to be of similar length to the Hwasong-8 hypersonic missile tested in Sept last year (see pic 1 below). The Hwasong-8 also appears to be significantly shorter than the Hwasong-12 (pic 2). For more info see: bit.ly/3n1RAJP

Read 7 tweets

Open Nuclear Network

@OpenNuclear

Oct 12, 2021

THREAD: DPRK held a defence exhibition on 11 Oct. Most weapons displayed had been shown before. This thread highlights some of the exhibits showcased in the event.

1. New-type ICBM that made its public debut on 10 Oct 2020 but has yet to be flight tested.
For more info see: thebulletin.org/2020/10/two-ke…

2. Hwasong-8 tested on 28 Sept 2021 was displayed among the ICBMs and IRBMs. Photo shows that its hypersonic glide vehicle looks similar to the Chinese DF-17.
For more info see: bit.ly/3AAbq2T