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Nov 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#PASen - 11/7 Update

~65,000 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to a little over 1.1 million votes cast.

Dem return rate is 79.5%.
GOP return rate is 78.1%.

Solid green = 80%+ returns, light green = 70-80%.

There are a LOT of breakdowns here. Read on... Image
1. SEPA massively delivered in a last minute clutch and all Philly collars + Philly itself are either above 70% reporting or edging close to 80%. If you were concerned about them, you can breathe far easier now.

2. Montgomery and Chester shot almost 10 pts up in report rate.
3. Dem firewall is now at ~550,000.

4. Allegheny is on utter steroids as usual with almost 82% reporting.

5. Earlier analysis pointed to Oz needing to win ED by at least 20 to have a shot, but this batch pretty much locks that in. He has a long road ahead of him.
6. Although the return rate has narrowed since R's are mostly stabilizing with trailing D's by only a few points in a number of key counties, Chester remains unusually glaring. R's still underrun D's there by almost 10 pts. In the others like Luzerne, Montgomery, etc, 3-4 pts.

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More from @blockedfreq

Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 8
#PASen

Now that my pre-election post is out, I need to lay out a few things about how tomorrow goes. Please retweet or save this just so that everyone is abundantly clear about what happens. I want as little stress on you guys as possible. (1/x)
1. I'll start coverage shortly after 6 PM EST and look at what we're getting on the ground before moving to feeding votes into my model once the polls close.

2. I will continuously tweet updates on benchmarks as I get them. IE - Fett needs 30% in Beaver, he's getting 35%.
3. I'm going to be very clearly honest about how the night is unfolding as it progresses. If it's looking bad for either candidate, I will state as such. I may be a Fett shill, but accuracy matters.
Read 7 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 7
1. Fetterman has the $$$ advantage in the final stretch.
2. Fetterman continues to lead in 99% of nonpartisan polls.
3. Fetterman has the distinct home turf/regional advantage.
4. Early returns show (not guaranteed) Fetterman's edge in relation to #3.

Crystal Ball: Lean R

???
Like, I get it. But CCM does not possess 2-3 of the advantages I listed and if you're going to have her favored, that says a lot about how you selectively choose to weigh fundamentals. NV is extremely transient and PA isn't.
Still fully prepared to eat my words on ED if it comes to that, but there is an increasingly disturbing untethering of reality of PA Senate versus actual fundamentals.
Read 4 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 4
#PASen - 11/4 Update

~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.

Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.

A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. More collar counties have caught up today and crossed the 70% threshold.
2. Dem firewall is now 520,000+ strong.
3. Delaware County will cross 70% in the next batch to drop.
4. We have a handful of counties knocking on the 95%+ return rate door, should hit it in the next drop.
Read 4 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 4
There's been a lot of conversation on the merits of analyzing the early vote this evening. Since I'm doing a fair bit of it for PA, allow me to offer a few thoughts about it. (1/x)
Disclaimer: I will say this - you do have to be careful about doing stuff like that. It varies wildly from state to state in terms of effectiveness. A big reason why I'm doing this revolves around testing a wider hypothesis I have about a hybrid model of election analysis. (2/x)
Subsequently, many of you quite rightly wonder how and where I came out of nowhere to start doing analysis for #PASen on an in-depth level. It just so happens that this year and an election that I'm heavily invested in finally allowed me the chance to test my thesis. (3/x)
Read 19 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Nov 3
#PASen - 11/3 Update (big one!)

~50,000 ballots were returned, bringing us across the threshold of ONE MILLION votes cast (1,017,019).

Dem return rate crossed another major threshold of 72.6% of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is 69.7%.

Takeways below.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. All PA counties are now out of the "red" zone.
2. Montgomery County followed Bucks and finally got its act together with the ballots, crossing over 70% returned there today. Good news for Fett.
3. Another batch of counties will cross 80% tomorrow.
Read 4 tweets
Joshua Smithley Profile picture
Oct 31
#PASen - 10/31 Update

~62,500 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to ~855,000 cast.

Dem return rate is 63.6%
GOP return rate is 59%

Dem advantage in return rate remains stable at ~4.5%.

The map has been upgraded to the next level. Color key and analysis below. Image
Dark green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
Purple = 40-50% of ballots returned.

Once 95%+ of ballots in a county have been returned, the county color will turn blue.
Now for the fun stuff.

1. Dem firewall is now almost at 450,000+.

2. Collar counties are still struggling with their returns. They better hope their slower reporting is straightened out on Election Night or else it's going to be a long week for all of us.
Read 4 tweets

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