Preface for Election night:
I have my predictions about this election. They place me in opposition to just about every major forecasting agency in significant ways, and that makes me uncomfortable. That being said, I believe in my numbers and my process.
I have my predictions about this election. They place me in opposition to just about every major forecasting agency in significant ways, and that makes me uncomfortable. That being said, I believe in my numbers and my process.
So I will be up front: my maps tonight represent a bull case for democrats, where they over-perform the assumptions of 538, Split-Ticket, Sabato, and Cook. I have my reasons for believing this will happen, but there is a ton of uncertainty!
Despite what disagreements with my maps you might have, understand that once the votes start coming in, all of my assumptions about the electorate are gone, and I do think my area of expertise far more lies on election night than before it.
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