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Galen Metzger🪬📈🇺🇦🌐 Profile picture
Galen Metzger🪬📈🇺🇦🌐
@GalenMetzger1
Special elections enjoyer. 22. 2022 oracle. Anti-populist. National Security Lib. Fuck Alfalfa. Pangloss was right. ↙️↙️↙️
Apr 9 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Everyone should read the full report of the Pew survey that came out today, not just the summary that's on their main page.


Here's what I notice:pewresearch.org/politics/wp-co… 1. The changing demographics of the US are finally percolating into the Republican party in a meaningful way. While Democrats are still more diverse, the increase in Hispanic vote share means that the Republican party of today is as diverse as the Democratic party of Clinton. Image
Mar 28 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The real story that no one talks about is how Americans pay for the rest of the world's healthcare through being the primary market that actually turns a profit, and those systems would break down if we went to a single-payer at-cost model. The progressive, anti-imperialist thing to do is to have Americans - who can afford higher drug prices - subsidize the global south's medicine, as we currently do.
Sep 13, 2023 • 20 tweets • 12 min read
STATEMENT ON VIOLET:

Before I begin, I want to say that Violet has quite literally saved my life on multiple occasions. There is a certain amount of good faith which I owe violet because of the relationship we had. Please keep that in mind as you read the following. Violet and I lived in the same building last year. On the night of April 1, we were drinking at a mutual friend's apartment in the same building and ended up leaving to hook up. The texts below are from immidietly before and the morning after this incident.

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Mar 5, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"There is no middle way of dealing with International Jewry, Judeao-Bolshevism must be eradicated from public society completely, else it will rot and corrupt even the most noble of races" And they wonder why we call them genocidal when they're shadow-quoting Himmler
Mar 5, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Democrats shouldn't moderate on abortion, because even if the median voter would prefer a 15 week ban to no restrictions, the *idea* of restrictions is distasteful right now.

For a similar reason, I think that defending things like drag queen story hour might be worthwhile. Making all trans issues 'Yes or No: do you feel like trans people have a right to exist in public' is a stronger message *even* to people who would prefer policy moderation than litigating where exactly trans people are too obscene by their very nature to be or not.
Mar 3, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Who would be a better general election candidate: Trump or DeSantis? Comparing all polls in the 538 database from Feburary:

1. More pollsters found that Trump is a worse candidate than DeSantis, but the average poll finds Trump outperforms DeSanatis by around 2 points (2.13) 2. High-rated pollsters tend to find that DeSantis outperforms Trump by a point or two, lower-rated pollsters tend to find that Trump outperforms DeSantis by mid-single-digits.

3. All-adult polls were better for Trump than DeSantis among both high-rated and low-rated pollsters.
Mar 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
An excellent piece on the early dynamics of the MS-GOV race. While I am more bullish on Presley than Split-Ticket is, we all see the same underlying dynamics at play: Presley is a great candidate, and Tate is mired in scandal. Is that enough in ruby-red Mississippi? My argument is simple: Presley has a history of overperformance even greater than Hood and Espy, with none of the baggage. His favoribility ratio is amazing, and Reeves' is horrendous. And there are upsides in both low-turnout and high-turnout scenarios for democrats now.
Mar 2, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This exact sentiment is *why* DeSantis is more dangerous than Trump. Our professional elite is already inoculated against Trump - they'll resist him if he returns. They won't bat an eye at DeSantis, because he doesn't trigger the same alarm bells of seeming scary. But he is. Is DeSantis a fascist? What's a useful definition of fascist, anyway? The point is, he's far more effective at stifling dissent and cracking down on groups he deems undesirable than Trump ever was - and Trump never had the same appetite for societal purity that DeSantis does.
Feb 13, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Black voters were only 33% of respondents (38% of MS VAP) and Presley is at 47%.

MS-GOV: Likely R --> Leans R This isn't just about this poll - MS has the demographics such that if it were *anywhere else* in the country besides the deep south, it would be a safe blue state, Tate Reeves is under a major scandal, and Presley is a highly credible candidate.
Feb 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In the early 1800s, it was apparent to all the powers that the strategy of 'put metal on a ship's hull to make it invincible' was a good one. One of the first ships to have iron armor had its first engagement in the warm waters near China, where it was practically unsinkable. The powers copied the design - it was stupid-simple: just put iron on the side of your ship!

But when the same guns were fired at the same armor, instead of bouncing shots right of, the plate shattered and mauled the crew belowdecks.
Dec 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
They told us we were crazy for calling a spade a spade.

Fascism is alive in this country.

The Republican party relies upon fascists to win elections.

These three men have the ear of a former president, tens of millions of viewers, and billions of dollars of resources.. These three men are certianly on the right flank of the Republican party, but as Ben Shapiro said: "The best way to avoid dining with Nazis you don't know is to avoid dining with Nazis you do". Who have the Republicans been dining with?
Nov 13, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
2022 retrospective:

As the last votes in the last house races get counted, I want to analyze my performance as a forecaster this election - the good, the bad, and the ugly. (1/3078) 1. The Topline

It appears (depending on the last AZ GOV results) that I called every single governors race correctly, I missed only Nevada in the senate, and am on track to hit within two seats in the house, with the most likely outcome being my predicted 219/216 split.
Nov 13, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
House update (EOD 11/12):

More results are in, more math has been done. OR5 moves out of competition completely.

The playing field (dem to rep):

CA13 (213)
OR6 (214)
AZ6 (215)
CA22 (216)
AZ1 (217)
CA41 (218)
CO3 (219)
CA27 (220)
CA45 (221)
CA3 (222)
NY22 (222) In CA13, a republican still leads, but the famed California blueshift makes this a near-certianty to be won by dems.

In OR6, enough vote remains out to not be callable, but Republicans making up the vote share with what's left is almost impossible.
Nov 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In CO-03, Lauren Boebert is clearly going to win, but don't hold your breath for a call. In Colorado, ballots can be dropped off anywhere in the state; these ballots are currently being shipped to their home counties for tabulation - probably mid-to-high triple digits. Then, the curing process will continue, as voters fix challenged ballots; the Frisch campaign has put significant resources into this part of the process, and there are many such ballots out there - maybe more than 5000 still in question, though it could be much lower.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Overall House Picture:

Be on the lookout for blueshifts as the days drag on in NY, CA, and potentially AZ. NY-19 in particular might be a dem hold in the end, and the CA 3 (13/22/41) all will probably blueshift considerably over the next weeks. I *believe* that all of the in-person votes have been counted in AZ, leaving around 300k mailers. If true, AZ races should be blueshifting from now on, generally - AZ1 and AZ6 are both doable for dems, though it's hard to say how likely.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Evaluating this at 6:am eastern on Wednesday:

I did pretty fucking good! National environment read looks spot-on, my overall house numbers is exactly what NYT predicts to be the average case, I was the only person to have Bobert as competitive... To be sure, I was wrong in many races: PA-7, RI-2, between 3 and 5 NY races, *probably* two Colorado races, and potentially up to eight or nine races between OR, NV, AZ, and CA.

In statewide offices, I think I can claim victory: as of now, I have a 1.00 batting record.
Nov 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
CO-03:

I am on the verge of calling this for Frisch.

Only substantial remaining votes out are from Mesa county - max 12kish. Bobert has a 5k vote deficit districtwide, so needs to win them 70/30. Mesa had a 5-point dem turnout advantage, compared to .5 in e.g. Montrose, Delta. This poses a problem, because Montrose swung 14 points towards Ds from 2020, and virtually any shift in Mesa *overall* would mean that Bobert can't make her margins in the district. In fact, no county that is above 95% has swung for dems by little enough for Mesa to save her.
Nov 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Adding on a few things that we talked about:
1. Pueblo is the last part of the district to have relatively low turnout, but state Dems are descending on the county like a flock of Vultures to a carcass; most of the red parts of the district really can't have that many more votes. 2. The race will be decided in four counties: Mesa, Garfield, Montrose, and Delta. All four are traditionally very red, and Mesa in particular is moving left rapidly. If Frisch can break 43 in Mesa, 36 in Delta/Montrose, or 55 in Garfield, it is ominous news for Bobert.
Nov 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
2022 MIDTERM PREDICTIONS:
This cycle is a hard one to be entering into the forecaster game, and at the end of the day, I have decided to stick with my guns. I believe that the Republican bull case is overstated, and that the final generic ballot looks more like D+0 than R+4. I do not differ from other forecasters in what seats are competitive, for the most part - but my predictions are still to the left of the conventional wisdom by a pretty wide margin, especially in the house. This is in-keeping with my assumptions about the environment.
Nov 7, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
CO Early Vote Final Update:

1.34 million votes have been cast, and the data points to the following:

Barbara Kirkmeyer will eke out a victory over Yadira Caraveo.

Brittany Pettersen will comfortably defeat Eric Aadland.

Lauren Bobert will underperform substantially. There is a very clear separation of these three races when it comes to relative turnout: In both CO-07 and CO-03, Democrats have punched in the upper single digits above their weight, but in CO-08, Republicans have thus far over-performed.
Nov 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
At this point, I'd expect Republicans have a disappointing night, as judged by their expectations - this cycle has Rs pointing to deep blue seats saying "That's actually a tossup now" and the political class believing them on scant evidence, down to the DCCC spending money there. The political class goes along with this gig out of fears of 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2020, because they really have taken to heart that 1) they are not the median American and 2) Republicans know the pulse of America better than they do.