Chatting with some folks who voted in Ann Arbor today. They say it definitely feels like 2018/2020 in terms of voter interest. People will chase you on the diag to see if you’ve voted. Folks who went to vote were committed to wait in line for 90+ mins, no one left the line
This was a line to either vote in person absentee (pick up a ballot and return right away) or register to vote
it seems like people are committed to voted even oustide the abortion issue from what I heard. I think a lot of credit goes to the organizers who’ve been pushing people hard to get out and vote
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As expected miami dade Election Day vote (ratio of 1.33 to 1) is actually less GOP leaning than the in person early vote ratio (1.43 to 1) so far but GOP is still winning it as of 7:30
will trends change with time? 🤷♂️ but that’s your data!
Yep 1.29 to 1 now.
also please dont misinterpret this as Dems having any chances statewide races lol! There is a ton of local stuff to vote for tho so go vote!!
Just like that, 5000 people have voted in Miami dade in that first 10 mins. 2256 GOP, 1518 DEM. Different times of the day have different compositions so let’s get a bigger sample size for accuracy
Broward: GOP 1350, DEM 1060 so wasn’t limited to Miami
7:20:
Broward, DEM 2292, GOP 2698
Miami: DEM 2896, GOP 4020
Hard to see the Whitmer turnout machine result in slotkin losing MI-07 at the moment, I expect the Dem ticket to prevails but it’s not an outrageous pick given the spending and district fundamentals. Mood is different on the ground but at the end of the day that can be subjective
I feel pretty good about Slotkin’s chances to pull it off, whether it’s by 0.2% or 2% but that’s just me. Everyone can have their own judgment on the state of play
End of the day, in my opinion, there will be a margin and firewall out of Ingham county that’s looking pretty good, with high Michigan State University engagement + prop 3 bringing out voters in the educated suburbs around Lansing
for those who are actually interested in learning, here’s the state of the matter
SD-4 (Biden +4, Peters +6 Dems have spent plenty to keep it in Dem hands, A+ dem recruit
SD-11 (Biden +2, Peters +5) Both GOP and Dems have conceded this one should go in the column
SD-12 (trump +4, Stabenow/Whitmer won) GOP fucked up with their candidate
SD-30 (Biden +3/James +3)
SD-35 (Biden +2/Peters +3)
All tossups, I give Dems the edge in 2 of these
MICHIGAN PRE-PROCESSING BALLOTS (opening return envelopes, and checking if ballot # batches envelope)
Where is it happening?
YELLOW = today (4% statewide population)
BLUE = today *and* tomorrow (10% statewide population)
RED = tomorrow (11% statewide population)
Traverse City, Alpena and Escanaba are also tomorrow
notably missing large municipalities: Lansing, Sterling Heights, Warren, Canton, Dearborn, Shelby Township West Bloomfield, Wyoming, Southfield, Westland
🚨🚨🚨🚨
Here's my FINAL Michigan State Senate ratings (tossups removed). Democrats have a good chance of flipping the chamber for the first time in 40 years. They must three out of the 7 battleground seats.
all 7 seats have a chance of going for either party. it is important to understand 15%, 20% or 25% chance doesn't mean 0%.
Democrats got a strong recruit in @Hertelforsenate who’s turned his trump +4 seat into a highly competitive expensive matchup and GOP had to dump a lot of resources to protect the seat (directly away from Biden won seats). I pick him has a narrow favorite to win next Tuesday