Tatarigami_UA Profile picture
Nov 8, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Using the example of the Chaplynka base, I would like to address some critical issues that need to be resolved - if we want to see the victory of the civilized world in this war. I will provide facts and evidence about lost opportunities
Despite claims from experts and politicians that Ukraine has everything it needs to reach any target on Ukrainian territory - I cannot confirm it. And here is why:
The enemy base was established at the location of an old, abandoned aerodrome in early March and continued to expand since then. In this picture from October 11th, we can observe Command & Control Center which I marked by the yellow square
With the ongoing success of the Kherson operation, Russians continue to withdraw their HQs and command nodes as soon as there is a potential threat of being hit by HIMARS. Imagery from 27.10 shows that the C&C center was disassembled and moved.
If Ukraine had Tactical Ballistic Missiles or ATACMS just a month ago, we could have easily destroyed this C2 center, completely beheading enemy command on the Corps/Army level. Furthermore, we could have easily decimated their airpower in the area
The identification of various types of rotary wing aircraft at the Chaplynka facility between May and October 2022 indicates a persistent presence of Ka-50 “Alligator”, Mi-28 “Havoc”, and Mi-24 “Hind” attack helicopters as well as Mi-8 “Hip” transport helicopters.
Back to the distance problem. The M31 rockets and other modifications launched by Ukraine’s HIMARS can roughly strike up to 70-92 km, something that Russians have quickly adapted to. As soon as there is a risk to get stricken, Russians simply move important targets further away.
Some people speculate that if the West would supply Ukraine with short-range tactical ballistic missiles, it would somehow escalate the situation, yet the same people remain silent when Iran agrees to provide ballistic missiles to Russia.
We know their C2s locations. We know what they had for breakfast. Yet, we don’t have the means to strike them. I will continue providing imagery to show you all the lost opportunities for the past months. TBM/ATACMS could have changed the game a long time ago. It’s not too late.

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Sep 30
Russia is exploiting economic struggles in developing nations, luring thousands of Africans with promises of escaping poverty - only for many to end up KIA or missing. Key findings from Frontelligence Insight’s analysis of unique mercenary records in Africa and the Middle East: Image
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Sep 28
Russia’s military rearmament, especially weapon production numbers, reveals much about its future plans. These numbers are usually hidden in classified documents, a problem Frontelligence Insight, with help from insiders, has solved. For the first time, we can share some of them: Image
2/ Before the release of the documents, spoilers of which an attentive eye may already have found in the image, we ask our followers to click the notify button in the profile so you don’t miss it. Many have reported that after updates, they don't see posts from those they follow Image
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Sep 26
It’ll be like the Chechen war - said one mobilized soldier. Even if it ends, our leader will thank and leave. A new one will say: I never promised you anything. Back home they’ll say: We never sent you.
One of many remarks gathered by Verstka from mobilized Russians. 🧵Thread:
2/ Russian media outlet Verstka has interviewed dozens of mobilized. Three years in, most express regret and little desire to continue. “There aren’t many patriots here. Almost everyone just wants to go home,” said another mobilized
3/ Here are some more statements from mobilized:
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Sep 26
It’ll be like the Chechen war - said one mobilized soldier. Even if it ends, our leader will thank and leave. A new one will say: I never promised you anything. Back home they’ll say: We never sent you.

One of many remarks gathered by Verstka from mobilized Russians. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ Russian media outlet Verstka has interviewed dozens of mobilized. Three years in, most express regret and little desire to continue. “There aren’t many patriots here. Almost everyone just wants to go home,” said another mobilized
3/ Here are some more statements from mobilized:

- I wish I could go back three years and tear up that draft notice. I’d rather take a suspended sentence than have spent all this time fighting and suffering. Every day out here has felt like a waste of my life
Read 15 tweets
Sep 25
Russia’s government plans to raise the value-added tax from 20% to 22%, breaking Putin’s pledge not to increase taxes before 2030. The budget deficit has already widened to ₽4.2 trillion ($50 billion), or 1.9% of GDP, as revenues decline with falling oil prices, reports the FT:
2/ This is the second direct tax increase since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

For the full year, the finance ministry expects the deficit to reach ₽5.7 trillion, or 2.6% of GDP, Interfax reported, citing a draft budget law not yet published in full.
3/ Oil and gas sales, which once made up nearly half of Russia’s budget, are expected to account for no more than 22% of revenue next year, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. He said last week that Russia aims to lower the break-even oil price for its budget.
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Sep 20
Ukraine successfully hit two refineries with drone strikes early on September 20. Geolocated videos show both the Novokuybyshevsk and Saratov refineries damaged and on fire. Ukraine has successfully targeted these facilities earlier this year. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ According to Rosneft, the Saratov Refinery has a designed capacity of 7.0 million tons of oil per year. It processes Urals crude, crude from the Saratov field via pipeline, as well as crude from the Orenburg fields by rail. It produces gasoline, vacuum gas oil, and bitumen
3/ Ukraine has struck Saratov Refinery multiple times in the past - once in August and twice in September (including today’s strike). The August strike halted oil intake, and the September 14 strike led to operational disruptions, though the full scale of impact remains unclear. Image
Read 9 tweets

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