Thread by @SimonWDC

Election Day morning!

Latest early vote data fr TargetEarly:
- Turnout is 42m, up 8% over 18
- Ds up 50-39 (+11), 4.7m natl vote lead
- In 18 at this point 47-45 (+2), in 20 48-41 (+7)
- D state "firewalls" grew across US this weekend
- Electorate keeps getting younger 1/

Since Dobbs it's been Ds checking what @tbonier calls the intensity boxes:

- strong vote in 5 House specials/Kansas
- spiked voter reg
- superior candidates fundraising
- huge early vote

But today all of a sudden Rs outhustle the Ds?

We'll see. 2/

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1589257511160655872

Think media blew the abortion/intensity story.

Since Dobbs been Ds consistently fired up, Rs struggling. Look at this headline from a new WaPo story:

"Some in the party worry their assaults on early voting could ultimately suppress GOP turnout" 3/

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1589409571386392578

Here's another thing which should worry Rs.

Jon Ralston predicted Cortez Masto would win based on strong D early vote "firewall" in NV.

Well, Dem early vote has come in better than NV in AZ, GA, MI, MN, IA, IN, NC, NE, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TX, VA, WA, WI? (D share vs 20). 4/

Last 7 natl tracks have Ds up 1.4 pts:

Econ/YouGov 48-49 Politico/MornC 48-43
NBC News 48-47 ABC/WaPo 48-50
Big Village 50-46 Yahoo/YouGov 46-44
Reuters/Ipsos 37-36

Civiqs has it 49-46, w/Dems gaining. Consistent w/recent Dem gains in EV. 5/

As for Senate if you pull out most recent non-partisan polls you find Ds ahead in AZ, GA, NH, PA, with NC, NV, OH, WI toss-ups. I'll take that.

And yes there needs to be big convo about how media got played by flood of bullshit GOP polls. 6/

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1589606785161498624

As we've been saying for months, there is just overwhelming evidence based on high quality national/state polls and Ds polling in CA/SW/TX that the "Hispanics are fleeing" to GOP narrative has been wildly exaggerated.

Here is Mike Madrid: 7/

https://twitter.com/madrid_mike/status/1589786574153486339

If Dems do better in this election than anticipated some credit will need to go to the many Republicans who bravely have worked so hard to convince other Rs to vote against MAGA. Liz Cheney first among them. 8/

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1587415446222954496

I've put some of this data in a new essay, "Would Rather Be Us Than Them." Think you will find it helpful. 9/

ndn.org/would-rather-b…

And here you can find me in new pods with some of the smartest people I know talking about the election.

All of these were recorded in the last few days so are very fresh! 10/

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1589404278330118145

To sum:
- Ds strong early vote continuation of elevated D intensity post-Dobbs
- D "firewalls" across US bigger than NV, may be too big for Rs to match
- Most non-partisan natl/state polls show no red wave, Ds better than cw
- Very good D Hispanic/youth polls
- Liz Cheney 11/

Friends, I've assembled this narrative in part so if Ds have a good night tonight and MAGA screams, we all have data and explanations for why it was possible Dems overperformed expectations.

We've overperformed repeatedly since Dobbs. Real chance we do so again today. 12/