Thread by @Lauce44

🦅 The xG DERBY 🐺

Since Sarri and Mourinho started coaching Lazio and Roma last season, the 2 teams have been constantly scoring more and less with respect to the expected goals.

🔎Let's analyze their finishing to try to explain these 2 sides of the #DerbyDellaCapitale

⬇️

Let's start comparing their offensive production:

From the graph we can see Roma is shooting more and creating more xG than Lazio.

In particular, in #SerieA:
- for open play xG: 🐺🥈 vs. 7th🦅;
- for set pieces xG: 🐺🥇 vs. 19th🦅.

Why then Roma scores less?🤔

⬇️

Let's check then the chances quality:

Again Roma has the better chances.

In particular, in #SerieA:
- for chances quality: 🐺🥇 vs. 🥉🦅;
- for shooting distance (the closer the better): 🐺🥇vs. 7th🦅.

Focusing on pre-shooting, Roma looks the better side, but...

⬇️

...focusing on what happens post-shot:

Roma🐺 is:
- 4th for %shots on target👍;
-🥇for hitting posts👎;
- 7th for %blocked shots👎.

While Lazio🦅 is more precise:
-🥇for %shots on target👍;
- 20th shots off target👍;
- 20th %blocked shots👍.

⬇️

Moreover, checking the danger of shots on target, one can notice:

Lazio🦅 in #SerieA is:
- 4th for xGOT (20,04);
- 5th for xGOT/SoT.

While Roma🐺 sits:
- 5th for xGOT (18,88);
- 9th for xGOT/SoT.

(SoT:shots on target)

⬇️

Why then Roma🟡🔴 and Lazio⚪🔵 haven't respectively scored ~19 and ~20 goals?

We are still missing something:

The Luck factor🍀

"Luck" intended as in over/underperformances of opposing goalkeepers shot-stopping.

⬇️

Looking at the difference between Goals and xGOT #Roma 🐺 has been, in the past season, and in the current one too, one of the unluckiest teams, facing in form opposing overperforming goalkeepers, unlike #Lazio 🦅, the luckier side of the Capital.

⬇️

Up to now, a better shot selection and precision from #Lazio 🦅, together with a good amount of luck🍀, seem to have been the keys to manage to score more than #Roma 🐺, despite the difference in the amount of shots and xG in favor of the giallorossi.

Thanks for your attention🙏. Thread ends here. Lemme know what's your opinion.

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Sorry for yesterday tag, found a couple of mistakes to fix 😅
@ASRomaData @ASRomaStats @BeGriffis @MicheleGioia12 @danielelozzi @Lvmbowski @Fedenwski @krudotw @morelli_ste @LazialeBelgio

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