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Nov 8 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
Russian MP Konstantin Zatulin warns against diplomacy with the U.S.

The notion that Russia will have to make compromises like surrendering Kherson for talks drives this view
Zatulin is a hardliner on Ukraine issues who was an early Duma advocate of mobilization. Here’s the whole post on Telegram t.me/konstantinzatu…

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More from @SamRamani2

Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Nov 9
On October 19, the Wagner Group Rusich Telegram channel began predicting that Kherson would be surrendered

It argued that Kherson could be fortified and become an ammunition supply hub but that didn’t happen deliberately
The post here, which saw Prigozhin’s allies effectively accuse the Russian Defence Ministry of sabotaging the Kherson campaign t.me/dshrg2/217
As Russia leaves Kherson, Rusich is pushing the same betrayal narrative and warns Berdyansk and Melitopol could be next t.me/dshrg2/308
Read 4 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Oct 8
Russian Telegram channels are using the Crimea bridge attack to advance their claim that Russia is not fighting the war brutally enough and Ukraine is winning because of this
This post urges Russia to attack the bridge where Western arms supply comes and says “nothing is impossible” It also blasts Ukraine’s desire to drive civilian areas it strikes into 18th century living standards t.me/sashakots/36349
This post frames Russia as “humanists” as they have refrained from civilian infrastructure targets and Ukraine as “practicioners” as they have no such qualms t.me/yurasumy/5356
Read 4 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Sep 30
Alexei Navalny has written a new essay on the drivers of Russia's war with Ukraine and Russia's post-Putin political future

Some thoughts /1
Navalny's main argument is that defeat in Ukraine is not enough. The West should create a climate where Russia will never want to start a war again.

This is challenge, as "permanent mobilization," a large sanctioned economy and imperialism will tempt Russia to war /2
Navalny argues that Putin has a domestic off-ramp if Russia loses to Ukraine, as he will say that Russia was attacked by NATO and the collective West

The overwhelming focus on the West in today's annexation speech points to this /3
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Sep 23
Four Russian State Duma deputies want to join the mobilization for war in Ukraine. Some more details /1
Dmitry Sablin, Deputy Chairman of the Defence Committee, was a key anti-Maidan activist who was involved in a June 2014 attack on Ukrainian border guards in Mariupol

Sablin also has extensive real estate assets in annexed Crimea /2
Vitaly Milonov, one of the most extreme conservatives in Putin's coalition, also wishes to join

Milonov has met with Yevgeny Prigozhin and his ally sociologist Maxim Shugaley in Donbas, which was officially linked to humanitarian aid /3
Read 5 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 30
Gorbachev played a key role in developing Russia's current influence in the Middle East. Some thoughts /1
Gorbachev facilitated Russia's normalization with Israel

Gorbachev decried the lack of Soviet-Israeli relations in 1987 and allowed for the emigration of Soviet Jews. A drastic reversal from the Soviet Union's prior "Zionism is imperialism" stance /2
Gorbachev also helped thaw tensions with Iran, which created a path to current cooperation

Khomeini's 1988 letter to Gorbachev and the 1989 Gorbachev-Rafsanjani Summit healed rifts over Afghanistan, and Iran's fears of Soviet support for communism in Iran and expansionism /3
Read 6 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 30
I spoke with some experts in Moscow about how Russia views Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson. Some thoughts /1
The prevailing view is that Ukraine's counter-offensive is unlikely to succeed in swiftly recapturing Kherson

Instead, it might resemble Ukraine's efforts to recapture land in Kharkiv region in early May and may not even be as successful as that /2
Ukraine's counter-offensive was aimed at diverting Russian forces from Donetsk but is even more tied to Russia's referendum push in Kherson

The view in Russia is that Ukraine will continue shelling targets in Kherson to prevent a referendum from being held /3
Read 6 tweets

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