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Nov 8 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
Folks, follow the @semafor election night liveblog. I'll have some takes on this website but the Verified takes will go there. semafor.com/article/11/08/…
I'm waiting for some fuller county results in Kentucky - watching the abortion measure - but in the meantime, here's a song from Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Charles Booker.
Miami-Dade is getting the ink, but majority-Hispanic Osceola County (central Florida) is another huge DeSantis breakthrough.

2018: DeSantis 39%
2020: Trump 43%
2022: DeSantis 53%
If Hassan wins, she'll be the second Democrat in New Hampshire history to get re-elected to the Senate.

Final Trafalgar poll was Bolduc +1.
*third Democrat!
A historic moment. Peter Welch is the first Vermont senator born after the end of World War II.
We're at 92% reporting in #RI02, where Allan Fung (R) led every poll, and he's losing by around 7500 votes - with a bunch of Providence still out. That's the sort of seat that should be going R if this is a +30 seat wave...
Called for Magaziner. That might be the end for Fung - two statewide gov losses, then a loss in this seat in a good GOP year.
This doesn't seem like a midterm electorate that's going to bounce Patty Murray or Michael Bennet.
Like I was saying.
Midterm message so far is clear: Voters want more crime and completely open borders.
Another GOP opportunity I was watching, IN01, trending toward Dem hold. Mrvan (D) up now and the vast majority of what's out is Lake County, safe D.

Sean Patrick Maloney is down but nothing is in from his Westchester base.
Dems might actually gain a seat in Ohio - Rep. Steve Chabot (R) down 6500 votes, almost everything left is in Hamilton County (Cincinnati).
Summer Lee looks safe in #PA12; up by 50,000 votes, would need to lose 90% of that to blow this.

Only candidate in America who'll have beaten AIPAC in a primary and a general.
I'm getting California recall flashbacks - a late wave of media hype that ran ahead of the voters.
Trafalgar wyd
One take that sounded like Twitter craziness but now feels right - Rs flooded the zone with narrative-friendly polls in the last week, results not matching up.
This was a +2 Biden district, Hines won the primary with a Trump endorsement. Should have been an easy R win and they blew it.
I mean come on.
Kentucky's constitutional abortion ban is still trailing by 70k votes. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Tudor Dixon says she's not conceding, after Fox called the race against her.
GOP on track to win 1/3 of the Rio Grande Valley seats - was shooting for a sweep.

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More from @daveweigel

David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 10
It's rare for the party that holds the presidency to gain Senate seats in a midterm. Happened to Rs in 2002, but the last time it happened to Ds, when they controlled the White House, was 1962.

NRSC chair that year? Barry Goldwater.
*happened for Rs in 2018 too
This is knife's edge stuff, though... to go full Goldwater Rs need to lose the rest of the NV/AZ mail vote and lose the Georgia runoff.
Read 4 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 8
Clinton blew the 2016 election, locking in a SCOTUS that will strike down campaign finance limits on 1st Amendment grounds for the next few decades. Don't like it? Build a time machine.
2016 was a pivot election, locking in GOP gains that can't be undone unless 1) there's some 1929 crisis that blows up the GOP coalition or 2) a Democratic POTUS lucks out on court picks and builds the 5-4 liberal majority that slipped away in 2016.
"But Dave, what about expanding the court?" See point number one, that's just online debate-society stuff unless Democrats become so dominant that they can pull off a court expansion. Right now it's hopium, I don't sell that stuff.
Read 4 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 4
Found the Tudor Dixon rally.
John James kicking off the rally: Whitmer, he says, is “literally campaigning against motherhood and apple pie.”
James jokes about Biden holding Whitmer’s hand at the auto show. “If President Trump had held Gov. Dixon’s hand, it’d have been on CNN for three days. But Sleepy Joe sniffs a 14 year old, everybody looks the other way.”
Read 24 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 4
Folks…

At Detroit stop, Buttigieg running through Biden admin promises that were kept — job creation, more manufacturing, putting black woman on SCOTUS.
“The solution is not how many books you can subtract from the shelf; it’s how many resources you can add to the classroom.”
Whitmer up, whacking a TV ad that says she didn’t fix the roads. “I know you all got eyes. You see those orange barrels and those traffic cones.” Some background bridgemi.com/michigan-gover…
Read 4 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 4
This is a fun "brown M&M" test. Check which media orgs call it a "1000 page report" and which ones say something more accurate, like "1000 page document." 94 percent of the contents are letters from GOP members to DOJ/FBI, with overlapping questions.
A ton of it's just pages of signatures on each letter.
Useful to have everything Rs have been asking for in one place; they'll be asking for it with House subpoena power soon. But I count 99 requests for info on Garland's 10/4/21 memorandum on threats to school board officials. We get it!
Read 4 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 3
Tudor Dixon kicking off a campaign day in Saginaw. Talks about her support for armed guards at schools and Whitmer opposing it.

“She says, my opponent thinks we should put more guns into schools, and I’m like: Yeah, we should protect our kids.”
Dixon says Democrats are trying to “control people with fear.”

“Look at Joe Biden’s speech yesterday! ‘Do not vote for Republicans because they have better plans.’ That’s what I heard.”
“This is the governor who wanted to abolish ICE. She says she doesn’t want to defund the police. Do you remember her marching? … She’s marching arm in arm with people carrying defund the police signs.”
Read 7 tweets

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