Share this page!

RRH Elections Profile picture
Twitter logo
Nov 9 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Republicans flip the much-litigated #FL04, with Aaron Bean (R) scoring an easy pickup in a seat that is no longer racially gerrymandered.

R+2
And per the NYT, R's have also flipped #FL07, a suburban Orlando seat that moderate Dem Stephanie Murphy (D) bailed on, criticizing her party's direction.

R+3
Dems get a low-hanging fruit one back, the new deep-blue #TX35 around Austin.

R+2

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with RRH Elections

RRH Elections Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RRHElections

RRH Elections Profile picture
Nov 8
Quick Election Eve thread on the bane of every nerd's existence this time of year: MIRAGES.

A mirage happens when a state counts heavily R or D ballots particularly early or late in the process, giving one party the appearance of a big lead that disappears as votes are counted.
Ohio, for example, is a BLUE MIRAGE state. In 2020, Ohio counted heavily Dem early/mail ballots first, and Biden led the state deep into the evening. He lost by 8 after the heavily R election day votes were counted.
Pennsylvania is a RED MIRAGE state, although first results will be heavily Dem out of Philly. But the overwhelmingly Dem mail votes will be counted at the end, so don't get too excited over an evening GOP lead.
Read 13 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Nov 8
On Election Eve, just want to give a shout to all the young analysts who have done such great work with detailed maps, previews, and forecasts this year--including, but hardly limited to @Elections_Daily, @SplitTicket_, @CNalysis. Awesome stuff, all. Looking forward to tomorrow!
For those who haven't read yet, here's final predictions from @Elections_Daily. @decunningham2, @JosephSzymanski, @krazgreinetz, @Jacob_Walters39 and the team have done amazing work all cycle, including building the great Election Shuffler tool. elections-daily.com/2022/11/07/ele…
The new kid on the block this cycle is @SplitTicket_ and their final preview is here. Great job by @HWLavelleMaps @lxeagle17 @Thorongil16 @politicsmaps split-ticket.org/2022/11/06/our…
Read 5 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Nov 5
NEW RRH Polls of 3 districts:

#VA07
🔴 @yestoyesli (R) 47%
🔵 @RepSpanberger (D) 47%

#OR04
🔴 @alekskarlatos (R) 45%
🔵 @ValHoyle (D) 45%

#OH13
🔴 @madisongesiotto (R) 44%
🔵 @EmiliaSykesOH (D) 46%

rrhelections.com/?p=104100
In #VA07 we found Youngkin very popular (+17) and Biden not (-11). Spanberger leads with those who have already voted; Vega will be relying on strong Election Day turnout. Spanberger leads in Stafford County, Vega in Spotsylvania.
In #OR04, Biden is underwater (-9) despite carrying our sample 50-41 in 2020. Undecideds lean young, blue collar, and rural in this tied race. Hoyle does not have as large a lead in Lane County (Eugene) as one may expect.
Read 6 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 20
Just sitting here thinking about where Joe Pinion could be in the polls right now if he could have raised Amy McGrath kind of money for his long shot run against a Senate Majority Leader.
It will be interesting to see if Pinion can do better in 2020 run against a Senate Majority Leader than McGrath did in 2018. This poll indicates that he could. So far Pinion has raised $96 million less than Amy McGrath did.
As of the last campaign finance filing Joe Pinion (R) has raised $400,875 for his #NYSen campaign vs. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D).
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 12
A week late, but let's do a thread on the Alabama VRA case and what it might mean for redistricting in 2024. The Supreme Court is expected to reinterpret the VRA--one way or another--next spring, and the Court's new guidelines will change the way states approach redistricting. 1/
Earlier this year, a lower court ordered Alabama to redraw its map (left), which has had one Black-majority district since 1992. Plaintiffs convinced the court that the VRA required Alabama to draw two Black-majority seats (right, for one example). 2/ ImageImage
SCOTUS has long had a 3-factor test (the "Gingles factors") to determine when a VRA district is required:

1. A compact district can be drawn that is at least 50%+1 of a min. group
2. The minority is politically cohesive
3. Whites bloc vote to defeat minorities' candidates

3/
Read 21 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 12
Here's a supercut of #WISen candidate Mandela Barnes (D) bragging about how he & #WIGov Tony Evers (D) worked to cut Wisconsin's prison population in half by releasing convicted felons back onto the streets of Wisconsin. 1/6
To meet their political goal of cutting Wisconsin prison population in half Evers & Barnes released murderers & rapist back onto the streets of Wisconsin. In 1st half of 2022 they were averaging granting early release to 2 murderers & rapist per week👇 2/
wisconsinrightnow.com/2022/10/11/eve…
#WIGov Tony Evers (D) appointees granted early release to a stranger who grabbed a UW-Eau Claire college student off the street & raped her and to a man who hacked a gas station clerk to death with a hatchet and blamed it on a fictional black suspects. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(