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Nov 9 โ€ข 7 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
A short thread on RU + UA losses per @Volya_media, for 10/26/22-11/7/22.

Losses = Killed, Missing, POW

TLDR:
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 6280 - 6334 Losses (72.4k-76.7k total)
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 12311- 12610 WIA (133.7k-147k total)

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 2521- 2590 Losses (39.3k-42.3k total)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 6507- 6620 WIA (65.6k-71.5k total)

๐Ÿงต1/6
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RU recent losses breakdown 10/26-11/7/22

RU Army:
6,030-6,050 losses
11,720-12,000 WIA

RU National guard:
150-180 losses
418-430 WIA

Wagner/PMCs:
69-73 losses
106-110 WIA
(I think more)

Black Sea Fleet:
31 losses
67-70 WIA

~1,564 causalities/day

2/6
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆUA Losses for 10/27-11/7/22:

181- 190 losses far from the front line due to missile strikes

407- 420 WIA far from the front line due to missile strikes

2,340- 2,400 losses on all fronts

6,100- 6,200 WIA on all fronts (including sick leave)

~709 casualties/day

3/6
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RU overall losses until 11/7/22:

72,460 - 76,731 losses (~289/day). ~30% are MIA.

133,783- 147,016 WIA (~544/day)
~40% are lightly wounded, who mostly return to duty

Not all were wounded at same time

Total casualties: 206.2k- 223.7k in 258 days (~834 a day)

4/6
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆUA overall losses until 11/7/22:

39,287- 42,256 losses (~158/day) ~20% are MIA

65,672- 71,488 WIA ( ~266/day)
~50% are lightly wounded, who mostly return to duty.

Not all were wounded at same time.

Total casualties: 104.9k-113.7k (~424/day)

5/6
Regarding sources and methods:

@Volya_media Has historically been highly accurate since the first weeks of the war, and have built quite a network of RU and UA sources.

They are RU-language media, but very much anti-Putin.

Here's their breakdown:

6/6๐Ÿงต

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More from @LanguageIearner

Nov 10
A thread on continued RU/UA op in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆOPCOM South forces, Kherson TG, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆsoldiers + others.

TLDR: RU is abandoning its positions, collapsing to defend around Kherson city and the Kahkovka dam.

I'm using @AndrewPerpetua's map.

๐Ÿงต1/9
To the NW of Kherson city, the 1st ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บline of defense, from Pravdyne-Snihurivka, is completely abandoned to the W of the Inhulets river.

The 2nd ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ line (Tomyna Balka- Chornobaika area) is reportedly in process of withdrawal.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆis advancing here, slowly and methodically.
2/9 Image
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Soldiers in and around Kherson city proper are preparing for an urban defense, with heavy mining of the city, suburbs, and civilian infrastructure such as homes and fields.

A regiment of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ combat engineers are being deployed to aid in this effect. They came from Donetsk.
3/9
Read 10 tweets
Nov 10
So, no update tonight beyond the Kherson one earlier.

In the meantime: a Congressional Research Service report on the Ukrainian Military Performance and Outlook:

crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IFโ€ฆ
The report covers 4 topics : personnel, equipment, Western security assistance, and the current Ukrainian military performance and outlook. A brief summary of each section is found below:
Personnel:
Part of UA's impressive performance is due to the experience in combat and motivation of its personnel since 2014. They integrated quickly in 2022.

However, a high level of combat casualties and small recruitment base (as compared to Russia) are limiting factors.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 9
A thread on RU withdrawal and UA offensives in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, UA OPCOM South, + others.

As of 10 PM on 11/9/22. East of the Inhulets river, UA is advancing towards Beryslav and the Kahkovka dam. RU is pulling some troops in to cover this area.

๐Ÿงต1/10 Image
RU soldiers and equipment are being withdrawn across the Dnieper River near Beryslav and over the dam. The crossing and the dam are not currently shelled.

RU brigades and 3 of the 4 RU units who were just deployed here with fresh mobikis are apparently withdrawing already.

2/10
West of the Inhulets River the situation is different. The bridgehead around Kherson and inside the city itself is held by 13k to 16k RU soldiers

RU is abandoning certain areas of the first line of defense, which runs from Pravdyne in the west to Snihurivka in the east.

3/10 Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 30
Sevastopol bay attack thread:

Overnight of October 28-29, RU Black Sea Fleet ships were attacked by drones in the bay of Sevastopol.

The RU flagship, Admiral Makarov frigate, was damaged. There's apparent footage of the approach of UA USV drone (kamikaze boats)

๐Ÿงต 1/5 ImageImageImage
A troop transport ship or cargo transport ship was damaged, possibly half-sunk. Additionally, either a Serna landing ship (pictured) or the Admiral Makarov is reported as sunk. My money is on the Serna-class (pictured) being sunk, as its much smaller.

2/5 ImageImageImageImage
Strikes damaged ship's superstructures and disabled radar, fire control systems and communications. Watchmen were injured, with reportedly 4-7 dead and 15-20 wounded.

The minesweeper Ivan Golubets (pictured) was confirmed damaged and on fire.

3/5 ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Oct 28
A short thread on RU and UA losses per @Volya_media, for 10/10/22-10/25/22.

Losses = Killed, Missing, POW

TLDR:

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 5700-5900 Losses (66.3k-72.4k total)
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 9300-9600 WIA (121.5k-134.4k total)

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ1400-1700 Losses (36.8k-39.7k total)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ3900-4200 WIA (59.2k-64.9k total)

๐Ÿงต1/5
RU recent losses breakdown 10/10-10/25/22

RU Army:
5170-5300 losses
8478-8665 WIA

RU National guard:
420-460 losses
620-670 WIA

Wagner/PMCs:
58-61 losses
130-140 WIA
(I think more)

Black sea Fleet Marines:
52-79 losses
99-115 WIA

2/5
UA Losses for 10/10-10/26/22:

150 - 200 losses far from the front line due to missile strikes

300 - 400 WIA far from the front line due to missile strikes

1,250 - 1,500 losses on all fronts

3,900 - 4,200 WIA on all fronts

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Oct 12
A thread on total RU and UA losses from @Volya_media , who has provided very accurate and granular data for some time on a number of subjects.

I encourage you to read the source:

telegra.ph/Spisok-myasnikโ€ฆ

TLDR:

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ60-66k KIA
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ112-124k WIA

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ35-38k KIA
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ55-60k WIA

๐Ÿงต1/11
Volya claimed sources:
HQ of both armies, individual units, army and navy reports, MoD of UA and RU.

Doctors treating causalities from combat, PMCs, the Russian National guard,

Intel agencies including: RU FSB/GRU, UA GUR/SBU and the UA foreign service.

2/11
For starters: The mechanism to RU assessments of losses.

RU counts military, national guard, Chechen Nat. Guard, DPR/LPR, Wagner/PMC's and their conscripts. RU doesnt lump these all together in their own reporting, they are all individual. Volya aggregates them together.

3/11
Read 12 tweets

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