Hi all, been a while so figured it would be a good time to give an update on what I've been working on. Basically a ground level up study on supply requirements for Russian units and an effort to understand potential issues in Russian force design.
At this point in the conflict no one is close to full strength so the effort is mainly focused on the initial phases. There are a few English sources I've looked at (Russia Way of War by Bartles/Grau for one) but I've mainly used Russian sources.
Much of what I'm doing is confirming the setup of MTO battalions in Russian maneuver brigades and comparing it to what we've seen. Preliminary evidence suggests MTO battalions are substantially understrength via captured docs, footage, and imagery, but much work still to be done.
Then the data for total vehicles, ammunition, cargo capacity, and fuel is added to an Access database that I've attached screenshots of to determine at a deeper level what is going on.
After I'm satisfied with the maneuver brigade and lower numbers, I'll work my up to MTO, railroad brigades, and rear depots.
Preliminarily, I hope to be done with the motorized brigade analysis in the next month in preparation for future meeting in Sweden. Also exploring avenues for moving long form analysis off twitter to something like substack.
I've been planning to move to substack for a while (predating the Elon drama). Still intend to maintain a twitter account but work requirements (not related to Ukraine) have resulted in me not being able to track the conflict in realtime as I did before.

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More from @HN_Schlottman

Sep 14
1/ A couple of somewhat brief opinions/thoughts on the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast.
2/ Hundreds of Russian vehicles were lost, most being abandoned. At least 200, more will be counted over the coming days. Based on others' work on analyzing Oryx's data with captured Russian documents, I generally assume the # we count on social media is 70% of the actual total.
3/ While there were no doubt Ukrainian losses, we would be seeing more if they were anywhere as significant as the Russian losses. Framing this as anything other than a significant victory, potentially altering the course of the war, would be a mistake.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 30
Finished an update for 27 August for uawardata.com. A few significant changes/improvements: Added both a notes and a sources field. Strength in BTG for HQ units includes subordinate units in parenthesis, Unlocated subordinated units have an asterisk.
"Approx. Strength in BTG" is cumulative for HQ units is total assessed for across its listed subordinate units. I'm not doing the individual BTG geocords at the moment (largely a lack of info and time required). I also need to further refine some methodology.
Ukrainian units are entirely derived from Militaryland.net which comes only from official press releases from Ukrainian Officials, official statements and Ukrainian news source.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 18
1/ TASS: Executive director of Kurganmashzavod (KMZ) appears to have been asked by the Russian MOD to resume production of "earlier generation BMPs", likely meaning BMP-2's (overhauls and possibly new builds). Currently, they produce mainly BMP-3's/BMD-4M's. Possible explanation
2/ Original sources here:
tass.ru/interviews/154…
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
Obligatory caveat: Russian state media.
3/ Last run of new build BMP-2's for Russian military was 2005-2006, last for export 2002. Spare parts production continued to maintain existing vehicles. Upgrade programs also existed, the most significant/successful being the BMP-2M.
Read 18 tweets
Aug 15
1/ Hi all, haven't tweeted in a while. I've had some exceptionally bad luck with health recently. I'm fairly confident I got food poisoning over the weekend so I'm out of commission again. I never really expected to get this many followers and I know some of you reached...
2/ out asking where the updates are. I've been working on some projects, but the main thing troubling me lately is a certain lack of rigor when it comes to my sourcing my own analysis. The lack of sourcing would no doubt make most 350F's shudder...
3/ To that end, @simon_huwiler has added a place where I can source each unit's assessed general location. So I've been slowly gathering all the sources I should have meticulously tracked before, up to the beginning of the war. I'm not sure of the exact format yet...
Read 6 tweets
Jun 29
1/ Gone through quite a few materials, now reasonably sure this is a case for 2x 122mm rounds plus charges that was pictured being loaded, apparently at Bronnaya Gara, Belarus several days ago. How I came to this conclusion to follow. ImageImageImage
2/ First thing I did was count the # of pixels wide and high the box was. Important thing is the ratio: 530/90 = 5.8. It's at a bit of an angle, so it's hard to tell. If the latches at the top are included, the ratio is about 5.4, so that's the ballpark I went with. Image
3/ Then I looked through a catalog of box sizes for various munitions I acquired. Was fairly certain it was tube artillery rounds based on what the depot stored, but didn't totally exclude other types of munitions.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 27
1/ Thanks to @DAlperovitch for having me on last night, a few elaborations on what I said on a couple points which I may not have communicated very well in the moment
@DAlperovitch 2/ A mid 90's congressional report put the total number of US artillery projectiles stored at about 25 million (20.8 Army, 400k Marines). This number is available here: govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GA…
@DAlperovitch 3/ Since then, the stock is likely lower based on Cold War production winding down and the closing of several plants. The number serves is useful in that in shows what the scale of Cold War era stockpile was. Soviet numbers were likely higher given they had many more systems.
Read 14 tweets

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