Thread by @SethAbramson

Some big, under-covered news coming out of the election may be—if it comes to pass—that all 6 insurrectionists running for Secretary of State in major 2024 battleground states lost. We’re on our way to that eventuality. And it’d mean that voters had *made safe* the 2024 election!

It can’t be overstated that Trump isn’t merely going to announce a third presidential run in 6 days to avoid indictment, but also because he believed he’d positioned election deniers in key states to help him steal the 2024 election. That option may now be off the board for him.

When you consider that Democrats are in a good position to hold the Senate, and that the only real purpose for Republicans in taking over the House was to try to ensure Trump won in 2024—they have no actual governing agenda—the collapse of Trump’s 2024 chances is a very big deal.

At this point, it looks like Trump will be aiming to win the presidency having never won the national popular vote, having no mechanism to steal the election, having possibly multiple indictments against him, having cost his party a “red wave,” and having little popularity left.

Meanwhile, his chief rival for the GOP nomination for president (DeSantis) has been dramatically emboldened by yesterday’s events. So I will say again what I said yesterday: if the GOP doesn’t bow to Trump, he’ll bolt the party.

Things are looking disastrous for the Republicans.

I think the story in U.S. politics in the next year will be the “Red Catch-22”—Trump has a gun to the head of the GOP that requires them to ensure he wins the 2024 nom (because he’ll splinter the party if he doesn't get it) but they have to aid him even as they know he can’t win.

And of course this scenario (the “Red Catch-22”) remains even if Democrats hold the House. Meaning that if the Democrats hold the House, the Republicans face an absolute disaster for the next two years that has *no upside* and that they *cannot avoid*. A pretty stunning reversal.

And we haven’t even gotten into the congressional civil war the GOP is now facing. The MAGA cultists are already blaming GOP leadership in Congress for yesterday, because (of course) cultists *can’t* blame their Dear Leader. So the power struggle within the GOP will be *intense*.