Several thoughts on election so far: 1. Ron Desantis had a monster night. He won Florida by more than any Republican has in modern history. He won Hispanics, women, independents, suburban voters. All of them. 2. Joe Biden, if he doesn’t die, will be the 2024 Democrat nominee.
3. Republicans win the House meaning Biden’s agenda is done for next two years. 4. Fetterman’s win is the only shocking result to me so far. PA chose a man who can’t do the job and can barely speak. Truly embarrassing result.
5. Laxalt has a good shot to win Nevada. If so, Senate control will come down to the Georgia runoff next month as neither party got 50%. Again. 6. Incumbents won big. Almost none lost for either party. Very much a status quo election outside of red tsunami in Florida.
7. Betting markets overvalued Republican candidates. I trusted them more than polls, but both weren’t very reliable. 8. The 2024 race begins now and, as I’ve been saying, I expect the Republican race to come down to Trump or Desantis. Buckle up. It’s gonna be a wild battle.
Final take: Joe Biden is the worst president of our lives based on all measurable data — inflation/economy, crime, the border — but outside of a red tsunami in Florida, there were very limited consequences for Dems being wrong on everything.
This suggests we remain in a trench warfare era of politics. Neither side moves much & objective facts don’t matter much because there aren’t many persuadable voters. It’s just a 50-50 country. At some point we break out of the trenches & get a landslide. But not yet. On to 2024.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
