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Nov 9 • 30 tweets • 10 min read
Update 🧵November 9th

This presentation is brought to you by the employee of the month and Dr. Evil look-a-like: General Sergei Surovikin.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…
Speaking of a month, that is about the time Surovikin has left in his office before he starts at a new job as a winddown inspector.

I'll get this ball(d) rolling early for obvious reasons.
The Russians army (lol) announced the retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region.

Based on this I changed about 4600km2 to contested. The timeframe at which this withdrawal will happen is for me unknown.
There has been plenty of sings and rumors along the way. I have been skeptical about the rumors about Russian withdraw since there have been a lot of conflicting information.
I'll do the normal update in a few hours.
Throwing in some old stuff that could be interesting today.
#movember (i broke the thread, sorry for repost)
It looks like the AFU will have some decent weather while mopping up the Kherson region.
Wagner associated telegram channel "Reverse Side of the Medal" shuts down the chat due to "to many suicides or suicidal" which might imply they are watched by the FSB? I'm not really sure of the meaning here, but I assume twitter will know.
t.me/rsotmdivision/…
I think it's possible this withdrawal started weeks ago. I'm not ruling out the UA success in the northern part of Kherson region was a result of the start of the withdrawal. They could have exploited a weakness during the preparation for the withdrawal or rotation of units.
This is not the first time Sasha Kots had to flee from a failed offensive direction.
Sasha Kots fleeing from Gostomel Airport March 27th. Looser.
Here he is revealing the location of a 2S4 and getting it destroyed.
Ukraine need longer range weapons.

This is how far HMARS could reach if they would fire from positions close to the Dnipro. Unfortunately RU moved their C2 from Chaplynka and moved it close to the Sea of Azov. Read more about Chaplynka here:
This is a good start, but I feel we still need a bit more evidence.
Pravdyne, this one also need a bit more evidence.
GSUA reported shellings all along the frontline today, they left out the location of about 30 shellings in the Kherson region.
Svatove-Kreminna
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bilohorivka and Novoselivs'ke.
Bakhmut
Worm food unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilogorivka, Vesele, Klishchiivka, Opytne, Soledar and Yakovlivka.
It's funny how the Russians attacked around Bakhmutske since the Russians already claimed they completely captured it.
Donetsk
The fighting seems to be ongoing in the Pavlivka area.
The AFU repulsed attack's around Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka and Pavlivka
Kalynivs'ke liberated.
Trenches and vehicle revetments around Vesele just north of the Nova Kakhovka Dam.
Satellite images are bough as a cooperation between me @NLwartracker, @COUPSURE and @ArtisanalAPT
If you like your work, you can help us buy more awesome satellite image.
paypal.me/defmon3
buymeacoffee.com/defmon3
Kadyrov confirms the AFU attrition strategy in the Kherson region worked.

... difficult area without a stable regular supply of ammunition ...

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More from @DefMon3

Nov 10
I get a lot of questions about the Russian retreat.
Why would they announce the retreat before they leave?
Why would they announce it on TV?
Here is what I believe:
The retreat has been going on for weeks.
There is only a small number of troops left east of the river, mostly lower valued units like mobniks and goat lovers. Some will most likely be sacrificed to cover the retreat of the last units
Announcing it on TV gives the Russian leadership a chance to save face. Kadyrov and Prigozhin immediately came with statement saying Surovikin was very brave and that he saved a lot of Russian lives. This announcement was purely for domestic propaganda.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 10
Update 🧵November 10th

This presentation is brought to you by the average Russian mobnik platoon.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper… Image
Yesterdays thread:


Parts of this will be kept short because of the situation in Kherson taking a lot of my time.

Kyiv was a feint.
Kharkiv was a feint.
Kherson was a feint.

Friendly advice, stay away from areas starting with K in the future.
GSUA reported shellings all along the active frontline and the Russian border. There was an unusual amount of shellings in northern Ukraine today. Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 10
Kherson
I have 10 settlements I consider being confirmed as liberated today. This is moving pretty fast.
It appears we are about 12-24 hours behind actual events based on rumors yesterday. Image
Read 14 tweets
Nov 9
It must now be considered proven beyond reasonable doubt, that you can take any statement by @GeromanAT and reverse it, and it will become reality. He truly is one of the greatest twitter prophets of all time.

Lets have a look at the evidence:
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8
Update 🧵November 8th

This presentation is brought to you by a Russian fire fighter, trying to put out a fire on his Gopnik friend. No one was drunk during the production of this video.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper… Image
Yesterdays thread
Don't miss "Sledge Hammer"
Shellings, there was an interesting one around Vasylivka, Mykolaiv region. I believe I have the correct one. Image
Read 24 tweets
Nov 7
Update 🧵November 7th

This presentation is (by popular demand) a Russian officer with the callsign "Sledge Hammer"

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…
It seems like some ppl have issues with me not showing up in the flow. This is because twitter knows better than you. If you disagree, you could do stuff like enable notifications.
More suggestions in this link
Read 24 tweets

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