There has been plenty of sings and rumors along the way. I have been skeptical about the rumors about Russian withdraw since there have been a lot of conflicting information.
I'll do the normal update in a few hours.
Throwing in some old stuff that could be interesting today.
Wagner associated telegram channel "Reverse Side of the Medal" shuts down the chat due to "to many suicides or suicidal" which might imply they are watched by the FSB? I'm not really sure of the meaning here, but I assume twitter will know. t.me/rsotmdivision/…
I think it's possible this withdrawal started weeks ago. I'm not ruling out the UA success in the northern part of Kherson region was a result of the start of the withdrawal. They could have exploited a weakness during the preparation for the withdrawal or rotation of units.
This is not the first time Sasha Kots had to flee from a failed offensive direction.
This is how far HMARS could reach if they would fire from positions close to the Dnipro. Unfortunately RU moved their C2 from Chaplynka and moved it close to the Sea of Azov. Read more about Chaplynka here:
I get a lot of questions about the Russian retreat.
Why would they announce the retreat before they leave?
Why would they announce it on TV?
Here is what I believe:
The retreat has been going on for weeks.
There is only a small number of troops left east of the river, mostly lower valued units like mobniks and goat lovers. Some will most likely be sacrificed to cover the retreat of the last units
Announcing it on TV gives the Russian leadership a chance to save face. Kadyrov and Prigozhin immediately came with statement saying Surovikin was very brave and that he saved a lot of Russian lives. This announcement was purely for domestic propaganda.
Kherson
I have 10 settlements I consider being confirmed as liberated today. This is moving pretty fast.
It appears we are about 12-24 hours behind actual events based on rumors yesterday.
It must now be considered proven beyond reasonable doubt, that you can take any statement by @GeromanAT and reverse it, and it will become reality. He truly is one of the greatest twitter prophets of all time.
This presentation is brought to you by a Russian fire fighter, trying to put out a fire on his Gopnik friend. No one was drunk during the production of this video.
It seems like some ppl have issues with me not showing up in the flow. This is because twitter knows better than you. If you disagree, you could do stuff like enable notifications.
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