Kherson Pocket🧵:
If this is what it looks like & RU forces are preparing to attempt a retreat over the Dnieper, then the UAF is being given a priceless opportunity. Unless they are logistically incapable, or lack sufficient force, they should crush the RuAF against the river.
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If this is what it looks like & RU forces are preparing to attempt a retreat over the Dnieper, then the UAF is being given a priceless opportunity. Unless they are logistically incapable, or lack sufficient force, they should crush the RuAF against the river.
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The ideal way forward would be to drive down from the northern end of the pocket with the aim of cutting off RU forces from the dam at Nova Kakhovka. We've already seen what appears to be retrograde movement from RU forces in this area.
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If that can be accomplished it removes the only reliable standing crossing left over the river within the pocket. RU forces will be forced to rely on ferries or hastily erected pontoon bridges to effect their escape. These are flimsier and present prime targets for artillery.
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Support fire will be critical. Avenues of approach to crossing points, roads, the crossings themselves, disembarkation points on the east bank, collection points - all of these mass large numbers of troops (targets) in small areas where artillery can be most effective.
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Continual fire on such targets will not only kill but demoralize retreating Russian soldiers. If the dam crossing can be secured by the UAF, this will further impress on the average Russian trooper that not all of them will make it back over the river.
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Spetsnaz units, VDV, and what little of the senior RU officer corps remains will be first in line for evacuation. The average Russian line soldier will be an afterthought. Once this grim reality sets in & UAF ground forces begin their own assault on whatever rearguard...
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...is left in the fortifications to cover this evacuation, the RuAF line units will begin to break under pressure. Unlike Kharkiv, once they break they have nowhere to run to. Their backs are to the river. This is when casualties & surrenders will begin to escalate rapidly.
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RuAF units that fight will be overrun & destroyed in isolation. Those with any inclination to surrender will understand their chances are far better with UAF regulars than Khersons partisans. If the dam is secured, the goal should be to drive to the river, eliminating as...
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...many RU personnel as possible. If Kherson can be captured while lightly defended, it should be done. If not it may need to be bypassed & surrounded until the UAF stabilizes it's lines on the river after eliminating the remainder of RuAF forces on the west bank.
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Afterwards, Kherson can be invested & compelled to surrender or assaulted as the case may be. This is an opportunity to inflict damage on the Russian Army with strategic implications, given their current manpower shortage. Any RU personnel who escape this trap will be...
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...faced by the UAF again on battlefields unlikely to be as favorable as this one is. The destruction or capture of the majority of the 20,000 RU personnel is a prize the UAF should seize with both hands if it is at all capable of doing so. Now's the time to break them.
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11/11
Addition: Kherson is the largest municipality captured to date, has had significant partisan resistance, & is/was the focus of much of the RU occupation governance effort. I fully expect to see large numbers of atrocities uncovered after it is secured.
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