The current Congressional drama over funding the US govt is (in part) now hinging on Ukraine aid. @POTUS made it easy for the aid skeptics to make good on their promises.

If I saw this coming, the man with half a century in politics should have. 1/
apnews.com/article/russia… The question then becomes, "What could the President have done about it?" The answer is quite a bit. The baseline truth is that some members of the GOP are unreachable on this issue for various reasons. The only thing to do in their case is to make it more politically dangerous to oppose aid than it currently is.

Other Republicans have what they believe are legitimate concerns that could have been addressed. At the very least there are measures that would have removed arguments in their favor and (likely) have rallied flagging public support.
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🧵:
Just heard @benshapiro say the following, “Ukraine should apply for NATO membership, gain NATO membership, and then lines should be drawn and that’s it.” Meaning accommodation should be reached with Russia to end the war with a Ukraine newly backed (officially) by NATO.
1/ He was agreeing with similar comments by H. Kissinger. Sounds great in theory right? Here’s why it’s not going to happen. NATO requires unanimous consent from existing members to add new parties to the alliance. Germany & Hungary will be hard “No”.
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🧵:
This is not uncommon in nations waging conventional wars for survival while desperately short of personnel. The article mentions the USSR specifically, while Israel is another good example.
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https://twitter.com/jgmaber/status/1620308827366387712

I'll be interested to see the breakdown of job assignments for the 38,000 women in UAF uniform, whether they're serving in segregated (doubtful, I've seen no mention of this) or mixed gender units, and the post-war analysis of their performance.
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Worth the read to understand the argument being made by @scharap & @MirandaPriebe. The premise is solid, war materiel consumption in the RU-UA War is predictably massive & western stockpiles are being steadily drained.
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rand.org/pubs/perspecti… @scharap @MirandaPriebe H/e given the positions of both leaders involved, I disagree that anything short of major military defeat or the attainment of stated objectives could currently compel meaningful negotiations. Loss or change of either nations current leadership might also alter the situation.
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Scholz und Panzers🧵:
Chancellor Scholz has once again prevaricated on the decision whether to authorize Leopard 2 transfers to Ukraine from Germany's various client states. While there are likely several reasons for this, I'd like to briefly delve into one of them here.
1/ My assessment of his behavior is that Scholz still harbors dreams of returning to something approaching a pre-war status quo between Russia & Germany. He's caught between this desire, & growing internal/external pressure to provide increasing levels of aid to Ukraine.
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Short 🧵:
While this headline comes from more of the usual, and often denigrated by me, unfounded speculation by anonymous officials - I'm still going to use it to make a point about introducing western systems to the UAF.
1/

politico.com/news/2023/01/0… I have no issue sending older M2 variant IFVs to the UAF. It should have been prepped for 8-9 months ago when it became clear the UAF wasn't going to fold and let the Russians overrun the country. Ditto air defense systems, & older generations of western warplanes.
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While Dr. Colby has taken some heat for this remark & I might quibble with “primary mechanism” aspect, if you examine Wehrmacht & Waffen SS personnel & material losses during WWII the clear majority of them happened on the Eastern Front.
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https://twitter.com/elbridgecolby/status/1609941232788070402

This was made possible in large part by Western Allied (particularly US) war aid, without which it is a matter of significant debate if the USSR would have survived. I would assess this as the primary mechanism of Allied Victory - military industrial capacity.
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This is reminiscent of the "Good Germans" arguments during the Second World War. It carries even less weight. The nation of Russia is waging an aggressive war replete with documented war crimes. Individual Russians are carrying out the campaign as directed by Putin.
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https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1606341892207218689

The Russian economy, & the individuals contributing to it, supports the ongoing conflict. The Russian people are involved, whether they're actively engaged in the fighting or not. Whether they wished for this war, or not. They now have a decision to make.
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Zelensky's Address to Congress🧵:
This speech was largely what I expected. Themes were the ones Zelensky needed to invoke for a US audience, his specific references were again tailored to appeal to Americans, & he stayed on point: Ukraine needs aid.
1/
c-span.org/video/?525000-… The themes:
1. UA's fight against RU is the worlds fight against totalitarianism. Victory for UA is victory for the world, a loss for UA is a blow to world freedom.
2. UA is currently embattled as the US has previously been embattled. Like the US, UA will emerge victorious.
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Biden/Zelensky Presser 🧵:
Few surprises here. The bulk of it was restating positions on the war, addressing sent & upcoming aid, & fixing blame for the conflict & its continuation on Russia.

Three points in particular I want to highlight.
1/
c-span.org/video/?524994-… Both men placed primacy on military victory & the ejection of Russian forces from sovereign Ukrainian territory. Not as a precondition to peace talks per say, but as a recognition that peace w/o that military victory would be unlikely given Russian behavior to date.
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Lambrecht: NATO can continue to rely on Berlin to fulfill it's VJTF obligations.

The Heer's 37th Panzergrenadier Brigade is set rotate into the VJTF next year as the lead ground element. German media reports they lack sufficient operational equipment.

reuters.com/world/europe/p… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… bundeswehr.de/en/organizatio…

Short NATO🧵:
It is no longer 1945 when war ravaged Europe needed US economic & military might to rebuild itself. It is no longer even 1985 when the threat of the Red Army & its Warsaw Pact puppet states required a united US & Europe to hold it at bay.
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nytimes.com/2022/11/29/wor… In 2022 Russia has been revealed as a (conventional) military paper tiger. European NATO could easily defend itself out of its own resources if it chose to do so. It staunchly refuses to, with some exceptions almost exclusively in Eastern Europe.
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thetimes.co.uk/article/eb6d6e…

“Hitting NATO territory with missiles. … This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a really significant escalation. Action is needed,” - Zelensky on the missile strikes in Poland.

It's important to remember Zelensky is speaking in service to his own...
1/ ...own agenda. He (understandably) has wanted NATO directly involved in this war since it began. This, to him, is likely seen as an opportunity to finally fulfill that desire. His priority is the good of Ukraine, not NATO, as it should be.
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Kherson Pocket🧵:
If this is what it looks like & RU forces are preparing to attempt a retreat over the Dnieper, then the UAF is being given a priceless opportunity. Unless they are logistically incapable, or lack sufficient force, they should crush the RuAF against the river.
1/ The ideal way forward would be to drive down from the northern end of the pocket with the aim of cutting off RU forces from the dam at Nova Kakhovka. We've already seen what appears to be retrograde movement from RU forces in this area.
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SIGAR has 7 "key lessons" for us, lets count them down 🧵:
Correct, the US had no long term comprehensive plan for successfully prosecuting the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan then departing once its objectives had been achieved. To date, no one has been held accountable for this.

https://twitter.com/SIGARHQ/status/1585285135603159043

The US failed to secure the country before trying to rebuild it. Timelines & expectations were predictably thrown off by the politics, enemy action, a corrupt local government, & defense contractors concerned with securing contracts over producing results.

https://twitter.com/SIGARHQ/status/1586251493652328449?s=20&t=rDmquWywlCu-cXdYN67yyA

Kremlin Spokesman Peskov & FM Lavrov are now stipulating general preconditions under which a Biden-Putin conference with the implied aim of ending the war in Ukraine might occur. They center around Russian interests, security concerns, & a return to the Dec-Jan state of affairs. Several observations on this. First, the desire to meet w/the US POTUS is a snub to Zelensky & a recognition that the collected West will be involved in the peace process given their level of support to UA's war effort.
ria.ru/20221030/dialo…

Short JSDF🧵:
Japanese efforts to rearm in the face of the rising threat of the PRC continue apace with this development. Joint Commands have become a hallmark of (primarily) Western militaries in coordinating combined arms operations.
1/
japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/2… The creation of one within the JSDF indicates Tokyo foresees the possibility that it may need to coordinate its combat arms routinely &/or on the grand scale, where an ad hoc JC for a single operation simply will not suffice. While this may seem like a routine matter...
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Initial thoughts on the Sevastopol Attack 🧵:
UAF drones attacked & damaged Russian naval assets to an undetermined degree last night in Sevastopol harbor. In addition to the physical damage, this attack served several purposes. It underlines the ability of the UAF to strike
1/ deep into Crimean targets. Specifically large, expensive, and/or difficult to replace targets like warships or the aircraft destroyed in the strike on Saki airbase last month. This presents Russia with a choice; it may continue to expose these assets to this level of risk
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For those who still wonder how Europe could possibly find itself in its current position, allow me to offer an example.

This is what passes for statesmanship from the President of France.

https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1580504648821387268

Just to dig into this a little more for those who think I'm being too hard on the French President: This comes on the heels of a statement made by Pres. Macron to French 2, yesterday where he said the following:
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US Foreign Policy 🧵:
Those of you who've followed me a while know I loathe delving into domestic US politics. Unfortunately this will be one of those times. I use @charliekirk11 's tweet as a case in point that speaks to a larger issue I've been seeing for some time now.
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https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1577319034130862080

@charliekirk11 There is a tendency in the US to denigrate an issue (esp. a foreign policy issue) as unworthy of US time & effort for fear your political opposition will co-opt it to their own ends & make political gains off any policy designed around the issue in question.
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"Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to threaten increased attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure if reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian military positions in Russian Federation territory continue."
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understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r… As ISW notes this appears to be a tacit reference to reported UAF strikes on the base of 3rd MRD at Valuyki, 9 miles within Russia. If the UAF is feeling bold enough to conduct strikes within Russia proper, it increases the risk of Russian retaliation.
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