Thread by @RileySnyder

Good morning! Here’s a quick 🧵on the state of play in #nvleg after last night’s election results (caveat that there’s still a lot of mail ballots to process in Clark + Washoe).

Coming into the midterms, Assembly is 26D-16R and Senate is 12D-9R.

Of 11 Senate races on the 2022 ballot, Dems and GOP can count on winning 4 races each (SD2, SD10, SD13, SD21 for Dems, SD14, SD16, SD17, SD20 for GOP).

There are 10 senate seats not on ballot -Dems control 6 seats, GOP controls 4.

The remaining three Senate seats (all in Clark County) are all very close and represent the difference between GOP control (11R-10D) or continued Dem majority just short of supermajority (13D-8R).

Here’s the status of those three races:
SD8: Paulos (R) leads Sen. Dondero Loop (D) by 686 votes, or 1.5% (GOP flip)
SD9: Sen. Scheible (D) leads Brown (R) by 1,403 votes, or 3.8% (Dem hold)
SD12: Pazina (D) leads Arrington (R) by 632 votes, or 1.44% (Dem flip)

Expectation is remaining mail votes in Clark will favor Dems, but hard to tell how much margins will shift in #nvleg races given smaller pool of voters. In 2020, Sen. Cannizzaro (D) was behind on election night but caught up after several days of mail vote

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1324752717529538560

Turning to the Assembly, initial results show Dems comfortably ahead in 18 races, GOP ahead in 14 races.

There’s 10 races where margins are close (less than 5%). Dems are ahead in 8 of those races, GOP ahead in 2.