It should be noted that in #MI12 that although Rashida Tlaib won her reelection bid, she dropped -7.3% of the vote since her last election in 2020 meaning that at the current moment -26,604 less people voted for her.
Additionally, #MO1 Cori Bush also lost support. At this moment she lost 6.1% of the vote from her last election in 2020 and is -89,045 votes behind her previous election bid.
Jamaal Bowman in #NY16 suffered some of the most losses of the “Squad” members. At this moment, He has dropped -23.1% of the vote compared to 2020. That is currently -92,744 votes than his last election in 2020.👀
Ayanna Pressley #MA7 has so far lost less ground among the “Squad” members but significantly lower turnout compared to her last election in 2020 which was understandably a presidential election. Currently, she’s only down -1.7% of the vote compared to 2020 but is -122,086 votes
Out of all the “Squad” members Ilhan Omar has actually improved her votes despite almost losing her primary. Atm although losing -41,725 votes compared to her last election in 2020, she’s gained +10.8% of the vote share. Granted in 2020 there were more candidates but still #MN5
So what’s the takeaway? Well although every “Squad” member won their reelection bids, they all lost votes and % pts (other than Ilhan in %) compared to previous elections meaning they are becoming more and more unpopular in heavily blue districts.
Ilhan don’t forget, only won her last primary by 2.1% of the vote or by 2,466 votes. Compare that with her 2020 primary where she won by 19.7% or 35,011 votes. The Justice Democrats are losing steam. All it takes is the right candidate with the energy backing them💁♂️ #Election2022
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I’m gonna make an early call. There will be more of a Republican shift in the 2024 election cycle. Biden will be running for reelection. This will drum out more Republican voters. The far-left voters won’t be as engaged like they weren’t with Hillary so they won’t go and vote…
Not saying Biden won’t win a second term but there are more Dem seats that will be in the crosshairs in 2024. Berners are usually disengaged with no Bernie. The opposite party not in the White House usually comes out in full force during a presidential election as we saw in 2020.
It’s something I could definitely see happening in 2024. We shall see how it all falls but I can always come back to this tweet then to check the forecasting