Thread by @LanguageIearner

A thread on RU withdrawal and UA offensives in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, UA OPCOM South, + others.

As of 10 PM on 11/9/22. East of the Inhulets river, UA is advancing towards Beryslav and the Kahkovka dam. RU is pulling some troops in to cover this area.

🧵1/10

RU soldiers and equipment are being withdrawn across the Dnieper River near Beryslav and over the dam. The crossing and the dam are not currently shelled.

RU brigades and 3 of the 4 RU units who were just deployed here with fresh mobikis are apparently withdrawing already.

2/10

West of the Inhulets River the situation is different. The bridgehead around Kherson and inside the city itself is held by 13k to 16k RU soldiers

RU is abandoning certain areas of the first line of defense, which runs from Pravdyne in the west to Snihurivka in the east.

3/10

UA is entering the positions abandoned by RU in Pravdyne, a strongpoint to the NW of Kherson city

RU withdrew partially from Snihurivka which commands part of the Inhulets, but are apparently trying to block UA gains here via artillery. RU bridge crossings were blown here.

4/10

None of the Russian unit commanders in and around Kherson city have yet received orders to retreat across the Dnieper. Many have written reports protesting with the pullout if RU troops on their flanks to the NW and NE, and have requested new orders, but received none yet.

5/10

Across the Dnieper near the Antonovsky Bridge, ammo/equipment is being evacuated across via boat, including munitions just recently brought into the city.

Soldiers and equipment remain at second lines of defense (outside the city) and in Kherson city itself.

6/10

Per RU sources, there are fears that after the eastern part of the group is withdrawn beyond the Dnipro and Beryslav is abandoned, the Kakhova dam may be blown up. This would make it impossible for troops located west of the Inhulets to retreat S across the Dnipro river.

7/10

RU military leaders do not want to leave the city without a fight, and the argument used to call for a withdrawal is the lack of supplies to RU forces in Kherson following blowing of the Kahkovka dam.

There are about 16k RU soldiers around Kherson who could be cut off.

8/10

Another argument in favor of blowing up the dam, is the necessity to delay UA assaults in the direction of Melitopol.

RU believes as long as there are urban battles for Kherson, the UA in Zaporizhzhia will not go on the offensive, delaying 1-2 weeks for RU defensive ops.

9/10

UA officials are still skeptical about statements by Surovikin and Shoigu about leaving Kherson. Too many Russian units and equipment have been transferred to Kherson, especially the city, in the last two weeks.

It appears RU may try and trade blood for time in Kherson.

10/10

Note: I'm not a map guy, these graphics are more for people to orient themselves on the battlefield then exact positions of units.

Maps to use:
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…

google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…