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Trent Telenko Profile picture
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Nov 10 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Others have already mentioned it, but Ukraine is over 1/2 way to recovering all the territory it lost in February & March 2022.

This Kherson withdrawal marks the 1st Russian mass movement out of the other 1/2 of Ukraine's 23 February 2022 lands.

1/6
And Russia knows Ukraine won't settle for anything less than its pre-2014 border as the Russian Army's new fortifications of northern Crimea makes clear.

2/6
Crimea without a fully operational Kerch Straits rail bridge is not logistically supportable due to a lack of rail delivered fuel tonnage.

As others have repeatedly underlined in their tweets, Russia is trying to buy time with Mobik lives.


3/6
The Russians are buying time to reestablish any sort of rail logistical connection to Crimea because they lack any. Ukraine disconnected the Donbass railways from the Southern Ukrainian lines.

Russia made no attempt to reconnect them before the Kerch
4/6
...Straits Bridge was truck bombed. Repairing it will take until some time into the fall of 2023.

Ukraine will be in GMLRS range before the Russian's can complete the Kerch Straits Rail Bridge repairs.

5/6
 defence-ua.com/news/vijavilos…
So Russia has to build tens of kilometers of railway to reconnect the Donbass rail lines to ones inside occupied Ukrainian territory filled with partisans and AFU drones spotting for GMLRS strikes.

We are all going to get to see how much Russian Railway Troops can bleed.

6/6

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 11
@SamBendett has posted an insightful translation 🧵of the Russian combat experience using Orlan-10 drone & Lancet loitering munitions in hunter-killer teams

It explains how the US Army's M109 field artillery cannon has turned into the T-62MV
1/
...of the 21st century indirect fire combat.

And no, I'm not kidding.

Both weapons entered service in the early 1960's and the M109 served in every (Afghanistan excepted) US war since Vietnam.

2/
 Image
And towed artillery pieces like the M777 and FH-70 are even worse off facing this Russian Orlan-10/Lancet-3 team.

This tweet is Russian thinking about that team.

3/
 ImageImageImage
Read 36 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 11
Ukrainian military intelligence reckons maybe half of the 49th Combined Arms Army was left behind:

1/6
 en.defence-ua.com/news/more_than…
From the article link:

""More than half of russian forces stationed on the right bank of Dnipro river before russian command decided to withdraw from the stronghold are still there, Defense Intelligence of Ukraine informs. The statement contradicts the russian claim that...

2/6
...all the forces were evacuated from the west of Dnipro to fortified positions of the other bank.

"To the left bank, the entire personnel, weaponry and military equipment has been removed," said russian defense ministry’s spokesperson Igor Konashenkov...

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 10
This is a Russian Kherson bug out report & the 'Strategic-Operational level' logistical implications tweet thread.

Report:
"Stanislav and Kyselivka confirmed liberated."



1/
Report:

"Near Snihurivka, the village of Pavlivka has been liberated."



2/
Report:

"Ukrainian forces steamrolling south along the Dnipro river. Novokairy has been visually confirmed and likely Mylove, too."

3/
Read 13 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 9
This is a really useful thread by @CollinSLKoh on the Chinese artificial islands in the South China Sea (SCS) & their usability as fortified air bases.

He brings all the science paper receipts, so check it out 1st.

I'm going to embellish upon it with this🧵

1/
While this paper @CollinSLKoh posted touches on the 'dissolvability' of concrete structures in the SCS maritime environment.

None of the snap shots he posted goes into the two most important factors required for usable runways.

2/
Those two factors are minimum Load Classification Number (LCN) and runway deformation.

Runway LCN are a vital characteristic as to how heavy an aircraft can operate on a runway.

Below is the standard definition of LCN.

3/
 encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/load+classific…
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 7
This is going to be a subject matter summary thread of individual tweet & tweet 🧵 on Russian casualties & casualty ratios throughout the Russo-Ukrainian War.

As I post new tweets on the subject, they will be appended to this 🧵.

1/
8 February 2022

This thread is a background on the Russian casualties in the 2014 - 2015 Donbass invasion.


2/
7 March 2022


3/
Read 33 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 6
This is something forwarded to me about Russia's whole blood supply chain complete with translation:

"I have already written by blood. The obviousness of the problem did not cause due attention. First of all, from the side of local administrations,

1/9
 t.me/mototroopers_2…
...pharmacy auto-refrigerators are no longer provided for these purposes. Blood collection points in Kherson do not work. They even bring blood from the Voronezh region. But not in the right amount. The consequences are obvious."

2/9
In so many words, the Russian State's whole blood collection and distribution system has completely broken down from corruption and can't even deliver enough of the right kind of blood to rear area hospitals filled with wounded Russian soldiers.

3/9
Read 10 tweets

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