Kevin McCarthy is in serious trouble as a candidate for Speaker. Let me explain. 🧵 1/x
It starts with the fundamentals. The vote for Speaker is not behind closed doors. It is on the floor of the House of Representatives. There is no lying back home about how one voted. And all Dems vote against the GOP nominee, always. 2x
House conservatives will not need a majority to prevail. They merely need to block & veto until they get an acceptable candidate. Exactly how many depends on the final slim majority, but it will not be a lot. 3/x
Conservatives will have a difficult (I would say impossible) time explaining a vote for McCarthy back home for many reasons, but mainly for being a peace-time leader when we are in a cold civil war who will manage the GOP away from conflict instead of seizing it by the throat 4/x
In other words, the fundamentals present a cartel-busting vote, and all you need is a few members to go public. We already have that in @mattgaetz @bobgood @chiproytx. That number will grow as members come off the trail. The trend lines are already in our direction. 5/x
Today is for thanking those already gone public. Build the numbers of members who want change & publicly say they are against McCarthy today. Talk of the replacement candidate comes next & at the moment, thwarts the momentum needed to build the fight 6/6
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