Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Nov 10 4 tweets 4 min read
This is wild: Democrats are currently leading in every House district touching the Pacific Ocean.

Uncalled races are #AKAL, #CA26, #CA47, #CA49, & #WA03. Those first four seem very likely to stay blue, while #WA03 still has many ballots left.

Doubt this has ever happened before Image
Note that the USA Today/AP map above still has #OR04 as uncalled, but other media outlets have called it for Dem Val Hoyle, who leads by over 8 points dailykos.com/stories/2022/1…
Apparently, the last time Democrats won every congressional district touching the Pacific Ocean was in the 1870s, when there were far fewer districts & states bordering it
Adding in Canada & Mexico is remarkable too: The lefty NDP (orange) or Liberals (red) hold all but one of Canada's districts bordering the Pacific Ocean, while in Mexico just two of the numerous Pacific coast districts aren't held by the left parties (red) ImageImage

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Nov 9
If the GOP wins the House by anywhere near this small of a margin, it appears very likely that gerrymandering cost Dems the majority, with the U.S. Supreme Court allowing elections to proceed in several states where lower courts ruled GOP maps illegally diluted Black voting power
Keep in mind when analyzing the 2022 House popular vote & the accuracy of the generic ballot polls that Democrats were penalized somewhat simply by not having as many candidates on the ballot as Republicans
Many races are still uncalled, but Democrats very well may have held the House if Joe Manchin & Kyrsten Sinema hadn't sided with the GOP to filibuster the bill that would have prohibited gerrymandering in every state, which House Democrats had already passed
Read 6 tweets
Sep 12
What if NY's Dem House map wasn't blocked in court & FL+OH GOP gerrymanders were?

See:
NY D map davesredistricting.org/join/22e2010f-…
Nonpartisan OH map
davesredistricting.org/join/c0c55ef9-…
FL legislature GOP map blocked by DeSantis davesredistricting.org/join/a7087256-…
Fully nonpartisan FL map
davesredistricting.org/join/483818cf-… ImageImageImageImage
In reality, Biden won 226 House seats & the median #MI08 by 2% (his national margin was 4.5%)

With the NY Dem map, OH nonpartisan map, & FL lege GOP map, Biden wins 231 seats & the median #CO08 by 4.6%

Add the nonpartisan FL map & Biden wins 234 seats & the median #PA17 by 5.8%
Had NY Dems' gerrymander not been struck down 4-3, had the Ohio GOP's gerrymander been struck down & redrawn before the election instead of delayed past 2022, & had FL GOP lawmakers not caved to DeSantis, the national congressional map's median seat could've had no partisan bias
Read 4 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
PA's redistricting commission has proposed a very fair state House map. Biden won 102 districts to Trump's 101, & Biden won the median seat by his statewide margin. Sharp contrast to the prior GOP gerrymanders that elected GOP majorities even when Dems won more votes in 2012/2018
Under the current GOP gerrymander of Pennsylvania's state House, Trump won a 109-94 majority of districts despite Biden winning the state by 1 point, & Trump won the median district by 3 points. The commission's proposal would strongly reduce the odds of future GOP minority rule
Here are the Dave's Redistricting versions of the Pennsylvania bipartisan commission's proposed legislative maps. The state House map is very fair & is likely to prevent a repeat of last decade's GOP minority rule
Senate: davesredistricting.org/join/028ce4a0-…
House: davesredistricting.org/join/bcb680dd-…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
Nevada is one of the very few states where Dems control redistricting. They've proposed a modest gerrymander aiming to keep the 3-1 Dem majority, but all 3 Dem seats only backed Biden by 7-8 points & could be vulnerable in a GOP-favoring year. DRA version: davesredistricting.org/join/5ec729ee-…
If Nevada Dems were willing to propose a Texas GOP-style extreme congressional gerrymander, they could have made all 3 Dem districts go for Biden by 14-17 points instead of 7-8, but connecting Reno to Las Vegas was probably never going to fly for Dems davesredistricting.org/join/ca4af7d2-…
Nevada Dems also unveiled legislative gerrymanders that give them an unfair edge (though not nearly as big as the GOP did with GA, etc.). Biden won the median Assembly & Senate seats by 8 & 6 points more than statewide, respectively davesredistricting.org/join/a8089c68-… davesredistricting.org/join/ce311e6d-…
Read 4 tweets
Nov 2, 2021
NEW: Voting rights are on the ballot today in three key states: Virginia, New York, & Pennsylvania. My new story looks at the key ballot measures, legislative & governor elections, & judicial elections that could reshape voting rights [thread 1/9] dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
Virginia Dems have passed dozens of voting reforms since taking power in 2019 for the first time in decades, passing automatic & same-day voter registration, an Election Day holiday, & much more. But that progress is threatened if the GOP wins today
VA's last 2 Dem governors used executive orders to end lifetime felony disenfranchisement, leaving only those in prison unable to vote. But if Glenn Youngkin (R) wins, he could restore a racist Jim Crow remnant that until 2016 had banned 1 in 5 Black voters, 5x the rate of whites
Read 9 tweets
Nov 2, 2021
North Carolina state House Republicans have passed their new state House gerrymander in committee. Voting rights advocates sued last week, & the 4-3 Dem state Supreme Court could block it like the state courts did with the GOP’s past gerrymanders in 2019 southerncoalition.org/breaking-civil…
North Carolina Republicans are so blatantly dismantling Voting Rights Act-protected Black legislative districts that it seems they’re counting on SCOTUS killing off the rest of the VRA. With a more sensible judiciary, this map would get struck down in a heartbeat
North Carolina Republicans have passed their new state House gerrymander in the full state House, dismantling certain Black districts protected by the Voting Rights Act. A lawsuit was already filed as noted upthread
Read 5 tweets

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