Parts of this will be kept short because of the situation in Kherson taking a lot of my time.
Kyiv was a feint.
Kharkiv was a feint.
Kherson was a feint.
Friendly advice, stay away from areas starting with K in the future.
GSUA reported shellings all along the active frontline and the Russian border. There was an unusual amount of shellings in northern Ukraine today.
Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks around Novoselivs'ke and Makiivka.
Bakhmut
Heavy fighting is going on in this area, I believe the Russians are desperate for a victory because of the epic failure in Kherson. A lot of ppl have asked me about Bakhmut today, but I have not seen anything raising any concern.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Soledar, Klishchiivka, Mayorsk, Yakovlivka, Bilogorivka and Vesele.
Wargonzo claims Wagner are fighting in Ivanhrad.
Donetsk-Pavlivka
According to Wargonzo reports, RuAF captured Pavlivka, but I wonder if they captured it, why is peg legged Pegov standing outside the town by their artillery positions doing a video about it? I'm extremely skeptical.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Nevelske, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka
Peg-Legged-Pegov outside Pavlivka. There was a video with a flag on a building, but for all I know, it could be the very first house in Pavlivka. It would not be the first time the Russians try to fake a victory t.me/wargonzo/9173
I made a separate thread for Kherson, at this moment, I have 13 confirmed liberated settlements.
According to Wagner associated telegram channel Grey Zone, Ukrainian Special Forces have reached the outskirts of Kherson City. I consider this a unconfirmed rumor. t.me/grey_zone/15743
The Russians showed them raising a flag in Pavlivka. It is now clear they are trying to invent a victory by raising a flag at the outskirts of the town.
Trusting the Russians is like trusting a monkey with a shotgun. Or your wife with your money. Not a good idea.
This is what they do, they invent a victory somewhere else so the putler fan club don't have to think about Kherson. They can just enter their safe space and fap to a fake victory in Pavlivka.
This image here show why Kherson City would not be flooded if the dam was blown. There are a few settlements on the left bank which are much lower, but I'm not even sure they would be in great danger as the river is extremely wide at that point.
Allegedly, the Russians are doing some motorboating in Kherson. But it's not the kind you would want to do with Pamela Andersson, it's the kind where you flee over a river at night. t.me/vert_i_call/69…
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The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992