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Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Nov 10 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
1. Short #Ebola thread:
@WHO issued an update — a DON — today about the Ugandan outbreak. It's been nearly 2 weeks since their last. The scarcity of detail coming out on this outbreak continues to surprise & concern me. I believe that's Uganda's call.
who.int/emergencies/di…
2. The latest SitRep from Uganda reports that there have been 157 confirmed and probable #Ebola cases & 54 confirmed and probable deaths. They will not add the probable cases so we have to do the math ourselves. I added those arrows.
3. @WHO's update gives a breakdown of #Ebola cases/deaths by affected region. Eight regions have had cases but Mubende and Kassanda have been the hardest hit. Two — Bunyangabu & Kagadi — seem to have contained transmission. Neither has had a case in >40 days.
4. @WHO has upgraded its risk assessment of this #Ebola outbreak from high to very high on the national level and from low to high for the region.
The perception of increased risk comes from having cases in Kampala and the mobility of some of the cases & contacts.
5. I wrote an item for @STATnews' Morning Rounds newsletter today (You're signed up, right? statnews.com/signup/) about the rumblings about how Uganda is treating international organizations working on the #Ebola response. Mike Ryan's comments speak volumes, I think.

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More from @HelenBranswell

Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 10
1. A #flu thread:
@CDCgov posted FluView early this week; tomorrow is a federal holiday.
This week's edition is a little eye popping.
Let's start with this map. This year CDC has added a whole new activity level, "very high" & new colors, deep red & purple.
Whoa. Image
2. It's so startling to see that much color in the map this early in the #flu season. This, for instance, is how the map — which represents how much respiratory illness there is going around — looked at the same time in the 2017-18 flu season. That season peaked in late Feb. Image
3. So, lots and lots of people in the SE, South center, California and up the eastern seaboard were suffering respiratory infections in the week ending Nov. 5. This is not all #flu. Some of this — a lot in some places — would be #RSV and/or Covid. Image
Read 9 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 5
1. #Ebola thread.
Uganda's health minister, @JaneRuth_Aceng announced today that the special measures put in place in mid-October to stop spread of the disease have been extended for another 21 days. Among other things, they block movement in & out of the 2 worst hit areas.
2. Those areas are Mubende & Kassanda districts. @JaneRuth_Aceng said to date there have been 132 confirmed #Ebola cases & 53 confirmed deaths. She didn't mention the 21 probable cases & deaths; they bring the outbreak totals to 153 cases & 74 deaths.
3. The health minister said a weak health system, myths & misinformation, a belief in witchcraft & exhumation of dead bodies to perform cultural rituals are obstructing efforts to control the #Ebola outbreak.
1 exhumation lead to 43 people contracting the disease & 6 deaths.
Read 4 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 4
1. A #flu thread.
@CDCgov's weekly flu update is up. The data are for the week that ended Oct. 29. CDC is having a press conference on flu and other respiratory bugs at noon; I'll likely add to this after that.
First thing: The flu season is indeed off to a very early start. Image
2. The sharp rise in medical visits for #influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) is unusual this early. 2 caveats:
- This is not all #flu. There's a lot of RSV going around now; it is captured in the graph.
- This tells us there's a lot of flu-like illness. Says nothing about severity.
3. It's going to take time to see whether this is going to be an early & severe #flu season, or early & moderate or early & mild. (Not betting on the last option.)
To date @CDCgov estimates there have been at least 1.6M flu illness, 13K hospitalizations & 730 deaths from flu. Image
Read 10 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 31
1. #Ebola thread.
The numbers in the Ugandan outbreak are rising pretty rapidly. Last week this outbreak was the 11th largest on record. It's now the 8th. There's a fairly big gap between 8th and 7th, but I would not bet against this outbreak moving further up the top 10 list.
2. One of the reasons I think this #Ebola outbreak could get a lot larger is just the pace of the recent growth of cases & the presence of cases in Kampala. But also, the followup rate of contacts listed in the latest SitRep from Uganda is not great.
3. Uganda has been boasting a contact follow up rate of in the mid-to-high 90% range. It's down to 88%. And that's of the contacts they know if. If they are missing cases, there are more contacts they don't know of.
The bigger an outbreak gets, the harder this job becomes.
Read 4 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 28
1. So #flu season is taking off at quite a clip. A 🧵
A child died from flu in the week ending Oct. 8, @CDCgov reports in this week's FluView. This is the first pediatric flu death in the 2022-2023 reporting period. Image
2. #Flu hospitalizations have been climbing steadily since the 2022-23 reporting year started at the beginning of Oct.
In the week ending Oct. 22 (week 42), more than 2,300 people were hospitalized for flu. This is higher than any week 42 going back a decade. Image
3. @CDCgov estimates that to date this year there have been roughly 888,000 #flu illnesses, 6,900 hospitalizations and 360 flu deaths.
FluView is viewable here: cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 24
1. Short #Ebola thread.
The outbreak in Uganda is getting quite large. Very concerning situation. But there's been some extraordinary good news. Merck, which makes the first licensed Ebola Zaire vaccine, has found it has 100,000 bulk doses of Ebola Sudan vaccine.
2. @sciencecohen reported on this amazing situation. Merck relinquished the IP for the #Ebola Sudan vaccine several years ago, but while it still held it the company made bulk vaccine as a hedge against an Ebola Sudan outbreak. It's still viable. science.org/content/articl…
3. @WHO is already planning a clinical trial of candidate vaccines which is supposed to start soon. The Merck vaccine, which stands a good chance of being effective, will surely be added to the mix. I wrote about the clinical trial late last month. #Ebola statnews.com/2022/09/29/ebo…
Read 7 tweets

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