Def Mon Profile picture
Nov 10 5 tweets 1 min read
I get a lot of questions about the Russian retreat.
Why would they announce the retreat before they leave?
Why would they announce it on TV?
Here is what I believe:
The retreat has been going on for weeks.
There is only a small number of troops left east of the river, mostly lower valued units like mobniks and goat lovers. Some will most likely be sacrificed to cover the retreat of the last units
Announcing it on TV gives the Russian leadership a chance to save face. Kadyrov and Prigozhin immediately came with statement saying Surovikin was very brave and that he saved a lot of Russian lives. This announcement was purely for domestic propaganda.
They can now say they saved thousands of russians lives. They did not lose the fight in Kherson, but they decided to leave because fighting against NATO would just be too costly.
As a side note, i think the attack on Kerch bridge played a huge role in this. And it's probably why we see them trying so hard around Pavlivka.

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More from @DefMon3

Nov 12
Update 🧵November 12th

This presentation is brought to you by the friendly walrus Muck.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper… Image
The Ukrainian general staff reported shellings all along the active frontline. There are also some shellings on the right Bank of the Dnipro in northern Kherson region. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 11
🧵Kherson
Some people seems confused about the Ukrainian victory in Kherson.

It is important to understand the strategy and the goals.

The goal was to liberate the area, not to kill as many Russians as possible or to destroy as much infrastructure as possible.
Statement regarding the first hits on the Antonivsky Bridge
The liberation of Kherson is the result of 3 months of attrition warfare. Continued attacks on the Russian ground lines of communications was at the end too much for Russia. To succeed this this, you also need them to spend ammo and fuel. They spend ammo and fuel during combat.
Read 21 tweets
Nov 11
Update 🧵November 11th

This presentation is brought to you by the Russian Swim Team doing the walk of shame.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper… Image
Shellings reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
Kherson region is looking quite strange for obvious reasons. Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 10
Update 🧵November 10th

This presentation is brought to you by the average Russian mobnik platoon.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…
Yesterdays thread:


Parts of this will be kept short because of the situation in Kherson taking a lot of my time.

Kyiv was a feint.
Kharkiv was a feint.
Kherson was a feint.

Friendly advice, stay away from areas starting with K in the future.
GSUA reported shellings all along the active frontline and the Russian border. There was an unusual amount of shellings in northern Ukraine today.
Read 16 tweets
Nov 10
Kherson
I have 10 settlements I consider being confirmed as liberated today. This is moving pretty fast.
It appears we are about 12-24 hours behind actual events based on rumors yesterday. Image
Read 27 tweets
Nov 9
Update 🧵November 9th

This presentation is brought to you by the employee of the month and Dr. Evil look-a-like: General Sergei Surovikin.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
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Speaking of a month, that is about the time Surovikin has left in his office before he starts at a new job as a winddown inspector.

I'll get this ball(d) rolling early for obvious reasons.
The Russians army (lol) announced the retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region.

Based on this I changed about 4600km2 to contested. The timeframe at which this withdrawal will happen is for me unknown.
Read 30 tweets

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