There are three reasons why Putin is losing this war. Two of them cannot be fixed. That’s why Putin doubles down on solving the third 1/9
First: Motivation. Russian army has no business in Ukraine. No number of draftees will solve this problem. In fact, it will only make things worse, because every next batch is less motivated that the previous one. Russia is simply running out of idiots 2/9
The Kremlin has just started severe ideologization and militarization of Russian education to get the young committed to fight. Most probably, it is too late. Russian young are skeptical about this war, and will be increasingly opposed to it 3/9
Second: Russian army is too hierarchical and corrupt. Replacing one butcher with another in military command will change nothing 4/9
Russian military is built on despise of soldiers’ lives and suppression of their initiative because Putin’s state is founded on the same principles. It will take changing the state to repair the army 5/9
Third: Russia faces a coalition with practically unlimited resources. Ukraine will never stop fighting because Putin frames it as a genocidal war. The question is whether Ukraine will have resources for that 6/9
This is Putin’s only hope at this point. Nuclear, energy, or grain blackmail, creating divisions in Europe and in the US – all of this is meant to break the coalition 7/9
Those who say that Putin cannot be defeated, or that he should be offered a chunk of sovereign Ukraine as an off-ramp, or that he should be kept in power to avert the worst – these people are the only ones who can help him snatch victory from the jaws of defeat 8/9
Putin is not invincible. He will be soundly defeated, and rather soon. If only some useful idiots don’t step in to save him 9/9
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