Thread by @AVindman

🧵 “Gen. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, has made the case that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in & so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table.” nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/…

He is wrong, much as he has been from before the war started. Milley was the authority providing advise to @POTUS that Ukraine would be quickly defeated by Russia, thus the U.S. would only be risking a flashpoint with Russia in arming Ukraine. Milley undermined deterrence.

In undermining deterrence Milley helped manifest the greatest danger to US national security in generations. This is a failure in a pattern of failures, including the Lafayette Square march, the advise on Afghanistan, and the politicization of the military and off of CJCS.

Milley’s CJCS predecessors had the foresight to leave diplomacy to professionals. Milley should be more focused on improving the quality of his military advice and not weighing in on geopolitical where he has even less proficiency.

But this is a man who has never been known to exercise good judgment (see above) or show restraint. I met & interacted w/ him for years in multiple fora. He loves to hear himself speak and has a massive ego. That’s become dangerous. He has couched his guesses as facts.

Early in the war he was almost a persona non grata w/ Ukraine’s military leadership due to his overbearing nature & talking down to the UAF besting the Russias. I’ve could see this. During my Pentagon days, the massive eye rolls from senior leaders attending Tanks were legendary.

This man should never have been the CJCS, he lobbied Trump for the job and his campaign resulted in him being hand-selected by Trump. That tells you everything you need to know.

I don’t understand how someone as wrong as often as Milley still fills a critical role in our security apparatus. He has once again gotten in front of the Biden Administration & inadvertently serviced the Putin agenda by adding pressure for Ukraine to deliver concessions.

The Biden Administration has learned that while diplomacy will be the way this war ends, talks will unfold not because we or even the Ukrainians wish it to, but when Putin has been decisively bested on the battlefield and comes in earnest to negotiations. Milley doesn’t get it.

Here’s my prediction: UKR will continue to liberate its territory w/ additional gains in the east & southeast thru the winter. In the spring & summer UKR & RUS will launch new offensives. UKR will liberate more territory. Putin then will attempt to negotiate to hold Crimea.

What is the role of the US/NATO? Unbending, relentless support for UKR to include more advance offensive & defensive weapons. This is how the democratic world demonstrates its resolve to defend democracy & a rules-based order, thus securing a more stable 21st Century.