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Nov 12 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Positivish news for Dems in #WA03: (The other) Clark County just counted more than half of what it had left, and ballots broke virtually even (+0.6% for GOP). Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez remains 5K votes over Joe Kent.
Dems have been winning Clark so far by a lot, so this is an overperformance by Kent. But... he needs to make up the deficit somewhere, and red Skamania, Lewis, Wahkiakum are pretty much done! He may need to win what's left in Clark by 15-20% (if not more).
Looking thru the other counties, I'd like to edit my first tweet to this being clearly positive for Dems, not positivish.
MARK YOUR CALENDAR: (The other) Clark County says it will have its next batch of ballots tomorrow at 4pm PT. That may be pretty much the end of the count here.

So we could (should? unless it's very close) know who wins #WA3 in 22 hours.

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
Nov 13
while I have you all here waiting for California or Arizona news, let me unfurl another thread pointing to some really important local elections you may have missed.

because these state & county races are so critical.
he was infamous among jail watchdogs for horrible conditions. he went to D.C. out with some of the most notorious far-right politicians like Steve King. people detained in his jail staged hunger strikes. and he lost on Tuesday:
North Carolina's Wake County rejected a comeback bid by a former GOP sheriff who helped fuel scores of deportation:
Read 15 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 13
Clark County, WASHINGTON in: great news for Dems.

15K ballots counted, & candidates broke nearly even: Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez got 18 more votes than Joe Kent.

She keeps lead of 5K votes in #WA03.

This matters bc it was a huge chunk of what's left.
Statewide page hasn't updated yet, so it's hard to know how many ballots are left, so I'll come back to this in a bit. But my VERY rough for nw estimate would be roughly 15K could be left? (Of which half would be in Pacific & Clark counties.) If so, Kent would need +33%.
#WA03 update: Yup, Clark has 5K left. Hard to exactly know for some others because they include more than WA03. But I'd still estimate ≈15K.

So: Kent must win what's left by ≈33%. (If Clark were to break even again, he'd need to win the rest by 50%...)

Nothing before MONDAY.
Read 6 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 12
❗️Karen Bass has taken the LEAD in the mayoral race in Los Angeles.

She now leads Caruso 50.4% to 49.6%.

(Expect her lead to continue to grow quite a bit.)
Karen Bass won today's batch of ballots (roughly 75K countywide, roughly 30K in the city) by 24%. She'd won yesterday's batch by 18%.

(Remember, we know later-cast mail skews far younger, and more progressive.)
Over in the LA sheriff's race, Robert Luna won today's batch of ballots by a staggering 40%.

He now leads 58.4% to 41.6% over Villanueva.
boltsmag.org/unease-in-los-…

Tracy Park is up 9% over Erin Darling. Hugo Soto-Martinez is up 7%. And Kenneth Mejia is up 61% to 39%.
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 11
if like me you're glued to twitter to see we'll get more from Las Vegas tonight, & don't know what to do in the meantime, check out our @boltsmag stories on some major races you may have missed.

on the big democracy measures that'll shake up voting: boltsmag.org/ballot-measure…
on a far-right sheriff who was ousted on Tuesday: boltsmag.org/massachusetts-…
on a name you'll likely hear a lot more of if you follow debates around criminal justice reform: Mary Moriarty, the public defender turned prosecutor-elect in Minneapolis

(and some other major CJ results):

boltsmag.org/minneapolis-pu…
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 10
Amazing news for Dems in Nevada.

Washoe is the tied swing county, but mail voters (as everywhere) are very Dem. CCM carries the 20K ballots by 26%.

(Earlier, she overperformed in rural mail too.)

Her deficit is down to just 16K, with at least 100K left in Clark + Washoe left.
CCM won the mail counted in Clark by 36% today, and the mail counted from Washoe from 26%. That's bigger than she needs (if it holds) to defeat Laxalt.

And *IF* mail continues to break this way, Gov race (where Dems trail by more) becomes more interesting than the Senate race.
I see that @ryanmatsumoto1 & @NickTagliaferro tweeted the same analysis: What we see this evening suggests not just that CCM is in good shape, but that you should not bury Sisolak. (That may depend on mail that arrives over last two days, and on curable ballots.)
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Nov 9
at this stage, I too am glued to Arizona, Nevada, and the U.S. House

but there's so many local-county results that really are so meaningful tonight, and i want to do another thread for things that I'd hate for you all to have missed
i've been asking sources for years whether there've been efforts to bring 'democracy vouchers', a program implemented only in seattle so far, elsewhere.

it's coming to one California city after yesterday, and other places are gearing up.
this in Massachusetts is the one and only result that made me tweet out HOLY SHIT yesterday
Read 14 tweets

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